Zhitong Financial APP learned that Guosheng Securities released a research report saying that under the consumption trend that products are king and national brands are rising, domestic leading brands are expected to enhance brand competitiveness and drive valuations up through iterative high-quality products. The bank recommends core recommendations.$Li Ning Co. Ltd. (02331.HK) $、$ANTA Sports Products (02020.HK) $、$Special step International (01368.HK) $The current price corresponds to the 2022 valuation of 36.1 pound 29 pounds 25.6 times; the manufacturer head company strengthens the research and development, production and customer barriers, relying on research and development, carrying products to promote the downstream development of the sports footwear industry, the bank's core recommendation$Shenzhou International Group (02313.HK) $The current price corresponds to 29.7 times of PE in 2022.$Huali Group (300979.SZ) $The current price corresponds to a PE of 27.8 times in 2022.$Topsports International Holdings Limited (06110.HK) $The current price corresponds to 17.4 times PE in 2022.
The main points of Guosheng Securities are as follows:
Under the background of infiltration promotion, sports trend and policy support, sports shoes and clothing is a high-quality track with growth.
Short termUnder the influence of factors such as repeated epidemic situation, base difference and catalysis of sports events such as the Winter Olympic Games, the bank expects H1 industry retail sales to show a fluctuating growth trend in 2022.
Medium and long termFrom a dimensional point of view, the domestic sports market (according to$ANTA Sports Products (02020.HK) $According to the announcement data, the size of the domestic sports shoes and clothing market reached 13% from 2015 to 2019, and it is expected to maintain double-digit growth in the future.) it is still better than the domestic clothing industry as a whole and the global sports market, and the industry has long-term growth with the prosperity of sports trends and the support of national policies.
Profit distribution of sports industry chain: research and development, brand and marketing barriers enable manufacturing and brand leaders to share value dividends.
The professional attribute of sports shoes and clothing products is strong, the industrial chain pattern is stable and the competition barrier is high, the bank judges: 1) the value focus of the industrial chain is still in the brand business, and will be further tilted, domestic brand manufacturers have the opportunity to exceed the growth rate of the industry. 2) the integration of upstream brands has been accelerated, and the barriers of head manufacturers have been deepened. 2) the profit space of channel merchants is relatively compressed.
1. Brand: the rise of the national brand has become an obvious trend.
The domestic sports shoes and clothing market is highly concentrated (according to the sales scale of each brand, the bank estimates that the market share of the CR5 brand in 2020 is about 53%, compared with 2015 + 5PCTs) and continues to rise, along with the rise of national brand awareness and the continuous progress of domestic brands, the latter has the opportunity to increase its share.
1) at present, the share of domestic brands is accelerating, and the future trend is expected to continue.According to the company's announcement, the pipeline growth rate of Anta brand is more than 25% in 2021, and the Q1-Q3 pipeline growth rate of Li Ning Co. Ltd. brand is 80%, 90% and 40% respectively, which greatly exceeds the performance of international brands in the Chinese market.
2) the elements of category competition are clear and increasingly fierce.Product side:Brands increase scientific and technological research and development, while taking into account fashion design, thus promoting the rise of product prices. at present, Li Ning Co. Ltd. / Anta have launched shoes worth more than 2000 yuan and 1000 yuan respectively.; marketing side:Leading enterprises master the resources of core events and increase the exposure of cooperative idols.Channel side:From high-speed growth to high-quality growth, DTC channel and e-commerce channel have become an important starting point.
2. Manufacturer: the pattern is concentrated upward, and the leading barriers are strengthened.
The change of industrial environment puts forward higher requirements for the stability and reaction speed of the supply chain.Short-term:The external environment is still uncertain, the order resources are skewed, and the head stable production capacity wins. According to the company announcement, the performance of Huali Group is expected to grow by 40% 55% in 2021, and the bank expects the output of Shenzhou International Group to grow by about 10% and 2022% respectively.Medium to long term:Leading dialogue, the strong Hengqiang, brands to streamline the team of suppliers is an industry trend, manufacturing leaders continue to benefit, the share of major customers is expected to increase.
Risk Tips:The impact of COVID-19 's epidemic situation exceeded expectations; the risk of a downturn in terminal consumption; the expansion of stores in various companies was not as expected; the development of new business was not smooth, and so on.
This article comes from the Guosheng Securities Sportswear Industry report, author: Ju Xinghai, Yang Ying, Hou Ziye, Zhitong Financial Editor: Yang Wanlin