CITIC: policy bottom, market bottom and emotional bottom are confirmed.

CITIC believes that the policy of stabilizing growth has been comprehensively increased, the rescue of the service industry has made up for the "deficiency", the increase of the policy has promoted the spread of the market, the concentration of investors to reduce positions and the adjustment of positions are nearing the end, and the "three bottoms" have been confirmed in turn to adhere to the active layout of the main line of the growth market.

First of all, the scope of recent policies to stabilize growth continues to expand, manufacturing upgrading and new infrastructure help investment make steady progress, service sector rescue measures precisely point to the short board of consumption, and the continuous refinement of policies in the future is expected to promote consumption to stabilize faster.

Secondly, the main line of steady growth in the early stage is more focused on the traditional industries with low valuation. after the policy diffusion, it is expected that the main line of stable growth will be more diversified, and the value and growth style in the main line of stable growth will be more balanced.

Finally, in the second week after the festival, the liquidity pressure in the market was rapidly alleviated, the concentration of investors to reduce and adjust their positions was coming to an end, the peak of overseas disturbance factors had passed, and the attractiveness of RMB assets was further enhanced. policy bottom, market bottom and sentiment bottom have been confirmed in turn. It is suggested that we should stick to the main line of growth and focus on the active layout of high-quality blue chips around the "two low positions".

The policy of stabilizing growth has been strengthened in an all-round way to promote the spread of the main line, and the bottom of the policy, the bottom of the market and the bottom of sentiment have been confirmed in turn, and investors are advised to stick to the main line of "steady growth" and focus on the active layout of high-quality blue chips around the "two low positions."

The details include:

1) varieties whose fundamentals are expected to be relatively low, focusing on mid-stream manufacturing suppressed by cost problems, such as cars and parts, photovoltaic wind power equipment, etc., and aviation and hotels whose fundamentals are expected to be still low.

2) for varieties with relatively low valuations, it is recommended to pay attention to high-quality developers, building materials and household enterprises after the expected slow release of real estate credit risk, and communication operators with significantly improved cash flow. Smart grid and energy storage in new infrastructure areas and data centers and cloud infrastructure benefiting from "counting east and west", and Internet leaders driven by the content of Hong Kong stocks after the decline of some leading companies. As well as fine chemical enterprises with new business capabilities such as new materials.

Guotai Junan Securities: the "steady growth" market is still on the way, and the value will still be dominant in the stage.

Guotai Junan Securities believes that "steady growth" has been the focus of the market since the Central Economic work Conference at the end of 2021.

The inflection point of global liquidity has emerged, and the asynchronous window of monetary policy between China and the United States is narrowing, which makes the valuation side do not have a comprehensive basis for uplift, so we should focus on the direction of valuation repair. Starting from the DDM model, attention should be paid to molecular-side profit reversal or marginal improvement. At present, the undervalued sector with consumption and infrastructure chain as the core has the above advantages, and the "steady growth" market is still on its way.

On the whole, under the low risk preference of the current market and the unfulfilled economic fundamentals, the value will still be dominant in the stage, while the opportunity for the growth of track companies still needs to wait for the pick-up of risk appetite.

If the water flows lower, according to the order of steady growth and the marginal improvement of profitability, it is recommended:

1) Infrastructure: coal / steel / transportation / construction / chemical-infrastructure real estate / machinery and equipment

2) consumption: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing (live pigs) / household appliances / consumer services

3) Finance: brokerage, bank

4) Consumer electronics.

China International Capital Corporation: steady word comes first, follow policy, external risks still need to be paid attention to.

China International Capital Corporation said that "steady growth" is approaching the time when the two sessions are realized, and external risks still need to be paid attention to. We have once again observed the introduction of "stable growth" policies one after another.

The National standing Committee meeting held on February 14 identified measures to promote stable industrial growth and bail out services, and three major stable growth documents were issued in the following days. There are also signs of loosening real estate policy in many places. "steady growth" ushered in a number of favorable policies, but it is also gradually approaching the time when the two sessions will be realized.

External risks still need to be noted. We believe that there is a high probability that the Fed will start a continuous cycle of raising interest rates after March. Compared with 2015, which is more similar to 1994, 10Y US bond yields may not peak and fall after March, and the subsequent inflation and interest rate hike pressure will still be high. Keep a close eye on the RMB exchange rate trend. At the same time, growing tensions in Ukraine could also have a new impact on global risky assets.

At present, with the spring breeze of digital economic policy blowing vigorously, the direction of digital infrastructure represented by data centers, gigabit household access, communication base stations and industrial Internet is expected to usher in fundamental improvements. In the direction, suppliers that provide data center planning, construction and supporting facilities such as refrigeration, power supply and power generation are expected to benefit the most. Secondly, optical communication suppliers and green energy security suppliers also benefit obviously.

Focus on the configuration direction:

① 's new infrastructure represented by "the calculation of the East and the West"

② 's traditional infrastructure represented by banks, real estate and building materials.

③, represented by food and duty-free, is expected to recover in consumption.

④ to coal, oil chain as the representative of the price increase varieties. Stock selection pays attention to the "three low and one change", that is, low, undervalued, low crowding based on the fundamental marginal improvement expectations, higher dividend yield is also expected to provide better defense.

Haitong: signal from value to growth: policy side and quarterly performance forecast

Haitong said that the background and incentives of ① adjustment since December 21 are similar to those of 21Q1, and disk indicators show that the adjustment has been sufficient. ② draws lessons from history, the catalyst of this spring market from value to growth may come from the policy side and quarterly performance forecast. ③ this year is similar to 2012 is a concussion city, the first half of the best window is steady growth in the spring market, short-term financial and real estate dominated, the future is expected to switch to new infrastructure of new energy and digital economy.

GF Securities Co., LTD.: continue to grasp the "good start" rebound of the year of the Tiger

GF Securities Co., LTD. said that the "good start" of the year of the Tiger is expected to continue. At present, steady growth is still better, and the logic of recovery after the epidemic continues to deduce, but the success rate of growth is also improving. A-share 22 years in the context of declining earnings and rising U. S. debt center low PEG strategy will be dominant.

The changes of three major factors continue to support a good start for A-shares after the festival. In the medium term, A shares still face the test of two core contradictions: the Fed's fast-paced interest rate hike + contraction, and the effect of China's steady growth. Us debt interest rates affect the growth style, and steady growth affects the value style. We expect that the stable growth policy will continue to be intensively tested between the current and the two sessions, but the success rate of low PEG growth on the right side of T3, the inflection point of social integration, is gradually improving.

From the cross-verification of the comparison methods of the three major industries, the industry with the main line of "steady growth" in the current low area is the best. Focus on steady growth + PEG desirable growth + post-epidemic recovery, and continue the balanced allocation of high and low areas:

1. The intersection of "steady growth" and "double carbon new cycle" in low areas (real estate, building materials, coal chemical industry)

2. PEG's increasingly popular technology track stocks (new energy vehicles, wind photovoltaic, digital economy)

3. Post-epidemic service consumption restoration (hotel, aviation).

Societe Generale Securities: how to configure the structure when the repair is in progress?

Societe Generale Securities said that since the beginning of the year, the market has continued to adjust, the current repair window has arrived: on the one hand, the "new half army" and other popular tracks have been in the bottom area, and gradually opened a rebound. Since the beginning of the year, the track for the growth of high prosperity and hard technology has been greatly adjusted.

On the one hand, the Fed's worries about raising interest rates and even shrinking the table are rising, interest rates on US debt have risen sharply, and US stocks, especially technology stocks, have fallen sharply, which continues to drag down domestic risk appetite. While the current market panic about the Fed rate hike has eased, the recent March interest rate hike 50bp expectations fell sharply, US debt interest rates rose and fell, the domestic impact will also weaken.

On the other hand, the high degree of overcrowding of domestic institutions and the poor microstructure of the market also lead to the economic growth track adjustment is particularly significant. However, at present, the degree of congestion such as the "new half army" has fallen back to a low level, and the performance-to-price ratio of valuation has also improved significantly. Among them, the leading stocks take the lead in stabilizing and rebounding is the first sign of the return of the "new half army". At present, the trend of new energy, semiconductor leader and non-leader has been in the recovery stage, and the characteristics at the bottom of the plate appear.

In addition, some investors are worried about the deterioration of the long-term prosperity of the "new half army", but at present, whether it is new energy, semiconductors or military industry, its forecast net profit growth rate in 2022 is still more than 40%, and the trend of high prosperity remains unchanged.

On the other hand, "steady growth" is not on the right, and "mini version 2014" will continue to be performed. Since the end of last year, we have put the "steady growth" sector in the first place, and the relative gains have been remarkable so far. Recently, many investors are worried that "steady growth" will enter the right side, and the plate will also fluctuate. However, with reference to the experience of the past five rounds of "steady growth", the market's expectation of policy relaxation has never been achieved overnight, but a process from "rising expectations" to "skepticism" to "final belief" and from quantitative change to qualitative change.

Investment strategy: grasp the financial real estate and other low valuation repair, while bargain-hunting layout of "small high-tech". In the long run, we will focus on the five directions of scientific and technological innovation.

1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.)

2) New generation information and communication technologies (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5G, etc.)

3) High-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, robots, advanced rail equipment, etc.)

4) Biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.)

5) military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).

Huaxi Securities: the bottom is more solid after repeated grinding, and it is in the period of strategic allocation in the medium and long term.

Huaxi Securities said that in the medium and long term, A shares are in the strategic layout stage, and the current A shares are repeatedly shaken to the bottom, bringing layout opportunities.

First, after the release of market sentiment for nearly two months, the risk of A-shares has been fully released. At present, the overall valuation of A-shares is reasonable, and the valuation performance-to-price ratio of some industries has also been improved.

Second, at present, it is in a period of wide currency to wide credit, and the accelerated landing of counter-cyclical regulation and control policies on real estate, consumption, and infrastructure investment will help domestic growth to gradually stabilize; third, judging from the forecast of the annual report of enterprises, the high-tech manufacturing industry still has high profitability, and the growth sector that has been substantially adjusted recently has also shown signs of rebounding after an overfall.

In terms of configuration, focus on two main investment lines:

First, the policy "steady growth" allocation of varieties, such as "banking, real estate, building materials construction" and so on.

Second, benefit from the price increase (price increase) expected, "food and beverage, aquaculture, agricultural products" and so on.

Guosheng Securities: how to rank the next stage of stable growth market?

Guosheng Securities believes that in the past three months, steady growth has been the clearest main line, and related sectors have generally been repaired, from infrastructure, real estate to finance, with good performance over the past period of time; on the other hand, the high-boom track generally fell by 20%.

After nearly three months of return, this round of value / growth ratio has already broken through the channel after the epidemic, and the strength and persistence of the recovery are higher than those of previous rounds. From the perspective of index comparison, the value-growth ratio is close to the hub of the past 10 years, and there is still about 15% room for the hub in five years.

After a round of overall repair, we believe that the internal order of stable growth in the next stage is: infrastructure chain > real estate developers > banks > real estate post-cycle.

1) whether it is the actual tendency of the short-term policy or the demand for high-quality development in the medium and long term, the new and old infrastructure is the biggest focus of the stable growth policy, and the certainty of the infrastructure chain is the highest.

2) at present, the overall upward driving force of real estate is slightly insufficient, and the front-end sales are sluggish, but with the reduction of first home loan interest rates and down payment ratio in many places, the expectation of real estate easing continues to rise.

3) Banks are expected to track credit lending and improve credit risk to continue to repair, but the manufacturing boom is still low, and short-term weakness in the real economy may put some pressure on bank stock valuations.

4) guarantee delivery, risk prevention, the completion of this year is expected to maintain, after the cycle plate changes with real estate stocks. Generally speaking, as steady growth gradually moves towards the cash stage, the internal ranking of the second half of the first quarter is as follows: infrastructure chain > real estate developers > banks > real estate post-cycle.

Strategy recommendations and industry recommendations:

(1) the trend of widening credit conditions has been confirmed, the policy continues to heat up, and steady growth is still the largest beta main line of Q1, and continue to recommend high-quality banks and state-owned enterprise developers, construction / building materials.

(2) Market sentiment is expected to continue to pick up, recommending communications in the direction of new infrastructure and computers under the catalysis of the concept of digital economy.

(3) Home appliances with relatively low valuations in the real estate cycle, and travel with the concept of dilemma reversal.

Shanxi Securities: global risk aversion heats up, track stocks pick up collectively

Shanxi Securities said that at the macroeconomic level, the current market uncertainty mainly comes from overseas.

First, the minutes of the US FOMC meeting expressed a bias relative to previous market expectations, driving global asset price adjustments, while the probability of improvement in US inflation data in the short term is small, and the Fed's interest rate hike process is still likely to have an impact on high assets, making bubbles passive out.

Second, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has repeatedly fermented, prompting the global risk aversion to rise.

Third, the United Kingdom and the European Central Bank have continuously released a partial eagle signal to break previous market expectations.

Taken together, the recovery of overseas liquidity is still a definite event, and the overall pace is tightening before and after loosening. We should focus on the marginal changes in the global financial environment, especially in emerging market countries, and the probability of a full outbreak of geopolitical risks is limited. But the repeated fermentation on the news may continue to impact global market sentiment.

The certainty of the domestic side is relatively strong. Under the background of the marginal easing of inflationary pressure, China is still expected to maintain a better liquidity environment in the first and second quarters, and it is possible to cut interest rates in the first half of the year. The increase of structural monetary policy is expected to lead to the continued popularity of the concepts of digital economy, domestic demand expansion and energy consumption double control.

At present, the volume of the A-share market is slightly insufficient, the style is not clear, and the impact of the news on the performance of the plate is more obvious and frequent. We believe that this is mainly because there are great differences in investors' judgment of the future market trend.

Under the background that overseas uncertainty risks continue to rise, and China continues to increase the size of loose and stable growth to hedge against the downward pressure on the economy, we suggest that in the short term, we should focus on some undervalued sectors that are expected to be repaired in the adjustment of epidemic disturbance and stable growth, and focus on the value blue-chip targets with better defense capability in the economic downturn.

In the medium to long term, we recommend that investors continue to pay attention to three directions.

Consumer sector: medicine, consumer upgrading. Long-term high-quality track: carbon neutrality, scientific and technological innovation, new infrastructure. Sound bottom variety: big finance.

Zheshang Securities: expected to rebound in the growth phase in April

Zheshang Securities said that the rebound window for growth stocks is from late March to April. The reason is that, on the one hand, from a macro perspective, April is the marginal relief window for the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates; second, from a meso perspective, the successive disclosures of the forecast for the first quarterly report of 2022 are expected to boost market sentiment. From a macro point of view, April is the marginal relief window for the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates.

Looking back at the adjustment of the gem since mid-December, we believe that the main disturbing factor is on the denominator side, that is, the upward rise in US bond yields and the expectation of the Fed to raise interest rates. Looking forward to the follow-up, taking the first half of the year as the observation dimension, April is the marginal relief window of the Fed's interest rate decision. At the same time, the risk of A-share growth stocks has been released since mid-December, and April is expected to usher in a phase of risk appetite repair with the landing of the Fed's interest rate resolution in March.

It is worth noting that, unlike from 2019 to 2021, taking 2-3 quarters as the observation dimension, we believe that the "three low" configuration in 2022 still has a comparative advantage.

Aiming at the "three low" sectors with undervalued, low stock prices and low positions, we examine the marginal changes in fundamentals from top to bottom, and we sort out the allocation clues such as stable growth, travel chain, high dividend and so on.

Steady growth: industrial Bank, Nanjing Bank, Ping an Bank, Poly Development, China Merchants Shekou, Vanke A, China Energy Construction, China Railway Construction Corporation, Sophia, etc.

Travel chain: Baiyun Airport, Air China Limited, China Southern Airlines Company, Shanghai Airport, Jinjiang Hotel, etc.

High dividend: Daqin Railway, Shandong Expressway, China Merchants Highway, China Mobile Limited, China Unicom, etc.