Carefully compiled from Tianfeng Securities:AMD (AMD.US) commented that EPYC "from zero to one" was finally realized, 7nm product cycle returned to "legend" in all directions; TP was raised to $22, reiterating buying.
AMD, the "always second" in the chip field, has recently been ignited, and its products are the first to enter the 7nm process than its old rival Intel Corp. In terms of share price earnings, AMD has closed up more than 60% so far, while Intel Corp has closed up 17% over the same period.
Server CPU EPYC's one-year anniversary "from zero to one" is finally realized, and the "legend" will be reproduced in the EPYC 2 process.
According to the latest Gartner market data, Q1 global server revenue this year increased by 33.4% year-on-year, shipments also increased by 17.3% year-on-year, the industry boom.AMD recently held the first anniversary meeting of server CPU EPYC release, saying that EPYC has gained more than 1% of the market share. It is expected that the data center processor market share will break through to 4% this year, corresponding to revenue of more than 800 million US dollars, and 10% penetration in the next two years, which will generate more than 2 billion US dollars in revenue.
With the R & D adaptation and product landing of OEM including HPE and Cisco, EPYC will accelerate market penetration in the second half of this year and further erode Intel share.Entering next year is waiting for the second-generation EPYC of 7nm to be on the market, in the face of Intel, which has postponed the point of mass production of 10nm Cannon Lake to next year, AMD will finally realize the reverse overshoot of the production process and further accelerate the expansion of both volume and price.
Ryzen CPU besieged the city and waited for the relay to be released, and 7nm Vega GPU joined AI in the beach battle.
Ryzen's brilliance in desktops has laid a solid foundation for AMD, and with the introduction of APU with Ryzen CPU+Vega GPU and Ryzen 2000 series CPU, we are optimistic that AMD will continue to compete for high-end desktops and laptops.Entering the 7nm 3000 series product cycle next year, we are expected to take advantage of the intractable problem of Intel 10nm yield to further seize the market. We predict that the overall PC market share of AMD (desktops + laptops) is expected to expand to more than 20% by 2020.
At present, AMD is only involved in the limited image processing of Aliyun and Google Cloud in cloud computing.With the announcement of 7nm GPU, which is specially designed for artificial intelligence and deep learning, AMD has the capital to embrace the blue ocean of AI computing, and is expected to occupy a seat in the reasoning side of deep learning, and be on a par with NVIDIA Corp in the upstream training side (currently the main product is 12nm Volta GPU).
The only combination of CPU+GPU, cloud computing and AI will get higher valuation flexibility.
AMD stock price has experienced a high growth of 7 times in two years since 15 years, and 17 years have entered the dormant period of product reserves under high market expectations, but we have always stressed that 2017 is the year when AMD returns to the market in all directions. 2018-2019 is to achieve more solid performance through better execution. Taking the lead in entering the 7nm process era allows AMD to continuously narrow the ASP gap with Intel and NVIDIA Corp in the PC/ server processor and GPU market through technological catch-up and process breakthroughs. We think the market still underestimates the performance power gained by AMD in the volume of Ryzen+EPYC.
