From the perspective of global resources, there is no shortage of potassium resources, but the degree of concentration and monopoly is high, and the place where resources are found is the place of production, in the form of products rather than mineral resources. The most basic variety is potassium chloride, and there are some potassium sulfate in China. Overall production capacity has been increasing over the past decade and growth has slowed in the past five years. The output has increased step by step, with 41.2 million tons for 20 years, and the utilization rate of production capacity has declined.

Why has it increased so much in the past two years? Part of the capacity is spare capacity. There are two major companies in Canada, one of which claims to have a production capacity of 20.6 million and an output of about 14 million tons. Russia and Belarus have a production capacity of 13 million each, and the recent expansion is mainly in these two countries. China ranks fourth in production capacity, first in consumption, and nearly half is imported. Imports ranked Brazil, the United States, China, India, Southeast Asia. Potash trade accounts for about 80% of output. With the exception of China, there is little demand from exporting countries and no output from importing countries.

Prices were previously low, about $220 to $320, but prices in Brazil rose to 800 at the end of last year. There are about 20 Chinese enterprises with a high degree of concentration, with salt lake production capacity of 5 million, Tibetan production capacity of 2 million (output 1 million) and Luo potassium 1.6 million. It is very difficult for domestic production enterprises to set prices, and import prices are obviously affected by international prices. 1. The prices of all major commodities have risen after the global economic recovery and have fallen slightly recently. Therefore, the price trend of potash fertilizer is basically the same as that of crude oil, with a certain lag. two。 With the rise in grain prices, the enthusiasm of farmers is high. 3. Sea freight rose and fell only after October, with a 20-year average price of $17, doubling in 21 years. 4. At present, there is no clear impact on the sanctions incident between Belarus and Russia, but it has caused panic in the market.

The price of potash fertilizer is high, which can restrain the follow-up demand. In nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, the amount of potassium fertilizer has a certain control space, mainly to improve quality, such as anti-lodging, wider leaves, redder fruit and so on. Prices have been stable since November, with a slight decline; the lowest price for Sino-Indian contracts is $590. Although the price of the supply is stable, the first step is to ensure the supply. In the near future, the domestic part of the price will rise some (there is a price difference), and it is very difficult for the import part to rise after signing the contract.

Q: does the terminal price include tax?

A: yes, the market price.

Is there a price increase for Q:cif to the terminal?

A: the contract price of US $590, excluding domestic tax, is subject to 1% tariff, 9% VAT and about 120 yuan of Hong Kong miscellaneous fees.

Q: the contract price is the following year?

A: yes, depending on the signing time, it is usually signed at the beginning of the year to the end of the year. It was signed in September 18, half a year, but lasted until the end of 19.

Q: the price is on the high side now?

A: we can't talk about it. Lithuania does not allow Belarus to export, and Ukraine does not allow railways, so it can only go to Russia, which is not very good at present. Two messages: 1. It may take six months to rebuild a port. two。 Build a new one, 1 year.

Belarus, which exports more than 10 million tons a year, had planned not to cut production this year, but could not ship too many goods and cut global supply by 20 per cent.

Q: is there any difference between the quality of salt lake products and other products?

A: theoretically, the content of potassium oxide is not much different from that of foreign countries. The water content of salt lake can reach 1%, and the proportion of impurities insoluble matter is slightly higher. In previous years, the price of Salt Lake was 100-200 yuan lower than that of imports.

Q: has the production cost gone up?

A: the increase in domestic costs is mainly due to the increase in mining costs due to the decline of logistics, natural gas and mineral grades. Brine drying at home and solid ore abroad. The quality of foreign countries is good, the mining cost of old mines is decreasing year by year, and the early investment of new mines is more.

The cost of salt lake is 1000 yuan, and the cost of old mines abroad is 50-60 US dollars (Russia, Belarus).

Q: what do you think of global potash supply and demand?

A: prices are difficult to predict. Without the influence of Belarus, global potash prices would not have risen sharply. The price of potash fertilizer in China is already higher than that of nitrogen and phosphorus, and chemical fertilizer plants are likely to reduce the consumption of potash. Spring ploughing is the time when the demand for potash fertilizer is the greatest, and if there is subsequent import, there will not be much demand.

Global demand has increased in 20 years, growing by 9% in 21 years, and is likely to fall by 4% this year. A long-term annual growth rate of 1-3%.

Q: what is the global increase in capacity growth?

A: at this stage, it is concentrated in Russia and Belarus. There have always been 40 or 50 planned projects, but the speed of promotion and completion is far lower than that planned. The increase over the past five years is nearly 3%, which is more in line with the growth in demand.

Belarus was originally scheduled for 1.5 million tons this year; each Russian project is about 2 million tons, but it is not believed that all of them will be realized immediately. The largest project in Canada, which was put into production in 27 years at the earliest, will have a significant impact on the world.

Q: open source and potassium sulfite in Laos, why does mining cost 1500 yuan?

A: Laos has high taxes and license problems. Mine difference: Laos is carnallite mine, Canada is potash salt mine. Laos also requires environmental protection and tailings backfilling.

Potassium sulfite has just expanded to 1 million, 3-5 years to 3 million, I think it will have to run for a period of time before expansion.

Open source depends on follow-up investment, the main business of Oriental Tower is not potash, once international prices return to low, it may not continue to expand.

Q: global duopoly?

A: competition and cooperation. After the break-up, Belarus and Russia went their own ways and did not hype up the price together, and there was more success in competition than monopoly. Canada judged that Belarus would reduce its volume and would also grab this share. They are more afraid of new large-scale projects.

Q: the impact of currency and oil prices on potash?

A: the change is not as big as the oil price, the trend is the same, there is a lag. If the dollar depreciates, potash will still rise.

Q: salt Lake was sanctioned last year. Is there something wrong with its sales?

A: last year, it produced 5 million yuan and sold 4.6 million yuan. From November to December last year, natural gas used for drying was in short supply, and 500,000 to 600,000 supplies could not be dried and sold, but these intermediate products could not be counted as inventory. At present, there is a large domestic demand, natural gas has just returned to normal, and the wet material has to be returned to the furnace for re-drying. Some even need wet material downstream.

Now if you want to increase the price, you have to report it. For fear of being punished, the price increase in cost is not as much as the price increase. The report was typed a few days ago, and it is rumored that it has risen to 4000.