Edited by Anxin Securities: special topic of Vaccine Industry-- looking at the Space of domestic Big Vaccine Market from the Perspective of Globalization
Since 2018, the vaccine section is one of the most prominent sectors in the pharmaceutical and biological sub-industry. Kangtai Bio, the leading stock, has been listed for two years and its share price has risen nearly 20 times. Anxin Securities believes that the next five years will be a golden period for the development of the vaccine industry, and the rapid release or imminent approval of blockbuster varieties will bring about a new round of second-class vaccine market expansion.
Global vaccine market: blockbuster products come out frequently, with a market size of nearly $30 billion
In recent years, the global vaccine industry market has grown at an average annual compound growth rate of about 2.8%. According to EvaluatePharma estimates, the market size in 2015 is about US $27.55 billion, accounting for 3.4% of the global drug market. The total annual sales of the global vaccine market in 2017 and 2020 are expected to reach US $30 billion and US $34.7 billion, respectively. The global vaccine market is an oligopoly, with the top four vaccine giants (GlaxoSmithKline PLC, Sanofi, Merck & Co Inc and Pfizer Inc) accounting for more than 80 per cent of the total global market in recent years.
China's vaccine market: with many heavyweight varieties coming on the market, it has entered a golden period of development.
China is the world's largest producer of human vaccines. According to the data of the Central people's Procuratorate, China issues 500-1 billion bottles of vaccines every year, ranking first in the world.
Vaccines in China are mainly divided into first-class vaccines and second-class vaccines. The first type of vaccine refers to the vaccine provided by the government to citizens free of charge, and citizens should be vaccinated in accordance with the regulations of the government.The first class vaccine production enterprises are mainly state-owned enterprises, such as Zhongsheng Group, etc.The second type of vaccine refers to other vaccines that are voluntarily vaccinated at the citizen's own expense.Most of the second class vaccine production enterprises are private enterprises.
From 2012 to 2015, due to the lack of blockbuster varieties on the market in China, the vaccine output value remained at about 15 billion yuan, and the growth of the industry stagnated. The main reason was that many blockbuster varieties did not enter the domestic market, resulting in the overall stagnation of the vaccine market.Since 2013, DTaP-Hib quadruple vaccine and other major vaccines have been approved on the market, superimposed in the next few years other domestic blockbuster vaccines have been put on the market, China's second class vaccine market is expected to have a new round of expansion period.
13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine: the world's best-selling blockbuster vaccine
According to World Health Organization (WHO), pneumonia is the leading cause of infectious death among children worldwide. Pneumococci is not only one of the most important pathogens of pneumonia, but also the main pathogen of otitis media, meningitis and bacteremia. At present, the resistance of Streptococcus pneumoniae to common antibiotics is becoming more and more serious. Vaccination is one of the effective means to reduce the drug resistance rate of Streptococcus pneumoniae.Prevnar13 is currently the world's best-selling blockbuster vaccine. At present, a total of 4 domestic manufacturers have entered the clinical stage, among which Watson's 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine has been reported for production and has been included in the priority evaluation list. With the listing of domestic 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and the continuous improvement of the vaccination rate, we estimate that the domestic market is expected to reach 10 billion yuan in 2025.
HPV Vaccine: the domestic stock market is huge and will grow rapidly in the next few years.
Cervical cancer is a malignant tumor of the female reproductive tract with a fatality rate second only to ovarian cancer. The proportion of women suffering from cervical cancer in China is 15 million, which is the second highest incidence of cervical cancer in the world after Chile. There is high correlation between human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer. HPV vaccine is the first vaccine used to prevent tumor in the world. it is effective and relatively safe, and the sales volume of the whole ball is only second to that of the 13-valent pneumococcal combined vaccine.. At present, the main HPV vaccines listed in the world are GlaxoSmithKline PLC's 2-valent vaccine Cervarix and Merck & Co Inc's 4-valent and 9-valent vaccines Gardasil and Gardasil 9, which have been listed in China in the past two years. The domestic stock market of HPV exceeds 30 billion yuan. At present, the penetration rate is low and the market space is broad.
