Since the beginning of 2022, the global market panic has been further fermented. The growing expectation of raising interest rates and the wavering situation in Russia and Ukraine are constantly provoking the fragile nerves of the capital markets. At noon on February 17, Beijing time, Russian media said Ukraine fired mortar shells and grenades into four areas of the "Luhansk people's Republic" in eastern Ukraine, and the futures of the three major US stocks fell rapidly.

Previously, Wall Street banks also spoke in unison to warn of the risks. Morgan Stanley is worried that the war could plunge the economy into recession, posing a major risk to the stock market; BofA reported that "sell as you can" sentiment hung over the credit markets; and Goldman Sachs Group strategists warned that if there was a war between Russia and Ukraine, the blow to the stock market will be worse than during the Crimean War in 2014.

Morgan Stanley: the economy is in a "polar vortex" recession, and the risk of stock market selling intensifies.

Michael Wilson, chief US equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, warned on Monday that the war between Russia and Ukraine "will significantly increase the likelihood of a polar whirlpool in the economy and profits". "if a potential invasion occurs and oil and gas prices soar, energy stocks may face the risk of a pullback," he explained. Such soaring prices would undermine demand and could plunge several major economies into an outright recession-a polar whirlpool. "

Wilson, a bears on US stocks, has been warning that the correction is not yet complete and that the market is at risk of a correction, and gives the lowest year-end target price on Wall Street: 5000 in a bull market and 4400 in a benchmark. The S & P 500 closed at 4401.67 on Monday.

Bank of America reports that "sell as you can" sentiment hangs over credit markets

Investors are abandoning bonds and holding cash in an environment of rising interest rates and political tensions, according to a new survey by Bank of America Corporation. "after a decade of financial repression, investors are still afraid of the central bank's policy mistakes, making it the number one risk for the third time in a row," BofA said. "the position of investment-grade credit has fallen to 16 per cent, the lowest since February 2019.

Prior to this, BofA strategists have also expressed the view that they are bearish on the stock market in the expectation of raising interest rates. The Savita Subramanian team warned that optimists expected the stock market to survive the rate hike cycle as it did in the past, but they made a mistake on an important detail. Although the US stock market has made positive returns during previous interest rate hikes, the main risk this time is that the Fed's "tightening comes at a time when the market is overvalued". "the S & P 500 before the first rate hike is more expensive than any other rate hike cycle except 1999-2000," they said.

Goldman Sachs Group warned: if Russia and Ukraine go to war, the stock market will fall more than during the Crimean period.

Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Group, said on Monday: "looking back on Crimea, the war pushed up the market risk premium by nearly 20 basis points and had a negative impact of about 5 per cent on the stock market, but the impact this time is likely to be greater. This may raise the risk premium by 20 to 40 basis points and could cause the stock market to fall a little more than 5 per cent. "

On March 16, 2014, Crimea held a referendum, and about 95.5% of voters supported Crimea's entry into Russia. On March 21, 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill approved by the upper and lower houses of Congress, completing all legal procedures for Crimea and Sevastopol to join Russia, so that the two places can formally join Russia. The then general Obama of the United States said that the United States did not recognize the results of the referendum in Crimea.

On the other hand, Goldman Sachs Group's research team also told customers that they should hold cash at this stage. Strategists Christian Mueller-Glissman and Cecilia Mariotti downgraded credit and upgraded cash to "overweight". They believe that without better growth momentum, risky assets will be more vulnerable.

At present, the geopolitical situation remains tense, inflation remains high, risk sentiment is rekindled, and commodity prices are rising. Institutions generally believe that the investment targets of safe-haven assets such as oil, gold, volatility, US dollar and treasury bonds are worth paying attention to.