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新兴亚洲遭遇2008年以来最严重外资出逃

Emerging Asia experienced the worst exodus of foreign capital since 2008

新浪美股 ·  Jun 18, 2018 21:32

Sina U. S. stocks Beijing 18 Bloomberg news, in the emerging market capital flight, even Asian economies with solid prospects for economic growth and debt financing can not retain investors.

Overseas money is pulling out of Asia's six emerging stock markets at the fastest pace since the global financial crisis in 2008, according to Bloomberg data. So far this year, withdrawals from India, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand have totaled $19 billion.

While emerging markets were booming in the first quarter, showing tolerance for Fed interest rate hikes, that image has been shattered in the past two months. With yields in the US money market now around 2 per cent-a level near which 10-year Treasuries were near last September-and the Fed is likely to raise interest rates more often, the threshold for money to enter risky assets has risen. News of trade disputes is even more detrimental to Asian exporters.

"this is not a good environment for emerging markets,"JPMorgan Chase & CoJames Sullivan, head of equity research for Asia excluding Japan in Singapore, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. The market digested that the Fed will raise interest rates by only 2/3 of what we expected over the next 12 months. As a result, the Fed continues to become more hawkish, but the market still lags behind. "

While many emerging market investors and analysts recognise Asian economic fundamentals and praise the world's leading growth rate and political stability, some are becoming more vigilant as global liquidity begins to shrink. After both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank moved towards policy normalization, Bloomberg JPMorgan Chase AsiaDollar indexIt fell to a 2018 low on Monday, extending a two-week decline.

But some people are still optimistic. A research report issued by Bank of America Merrill Lynch on Monday estimated that some currencies in the region, including the Thai baht andPhilippine pesoIt will appreciate slightly by the end of this year. Six of the top 10 emerging currencies so far this year are in Asia, of which 1.2% and 1.2% are in Asia.RMBTook the lead with an increase of 1.1%.

Developing countries, including Turkey, Indonesia, India and Argentina, have raised interest rates, and Brazil's central bank has increased its sales of foreign exchange swaps to stabilize markets.

This week, the central bank of the Philippines, which raised interest rates in May for the first time since 2014, is expected to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points to 3.5 per cent, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Another Bloomberg survey shows that the Bank of Thailand is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but JPMorgan Chase & Co and the coming quarter will raise interest rates.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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