Feb 11 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slipped over 1% to a fresh three-week low on Friday as output starts to recover quickly from last week's freezing weather and on forecasts confirming the weather will remain warmer than normal for the next two weeks.

After weeks of near record volatility, front-month gas futures NGc1 for March delivery fell 6.1 cents, or 1.5%, to $3.898 per million British thermal units at 11:03 a.m. EST (1603 GMT), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since Jan. 20 for a second day in a row.

For the week, the contract down about 15%, which would be its biggest one-week decline since December.

That drop in gas prices this week and a recent jump in oil futures CLc1 to its highest since 2014 boosted the premium of oil over gas to its highest since April 2021. Over the last several years, that premium has prompted U.S. energy firms to focus most of their drilling activity on finding more oil instead of gas because crude was by far the more valuable commodity.

The oil-to-gas ratio, or level at which oil trades compared with gas, jumped to 23-to-1 on Friday. So far in 2022, crude has traded about 20 times over gas. That compares with crude's average premium over gas of 19 times in 2021 and a five-year average (2017-2021) of 20 times. On an energy equivalent basis, oil should trade only six times over gas.

Data provider Refinitiv said average output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 97.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in December to 93.9 bcfd in January and 91.6 bcfd in February as wells in several producing regions froze, including the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, the Bakken in North Dakota and the Appalachia in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio.

On a daily basis, however, output soared to 95.0 bcfd on Thursday, its highest since Jan. 1, according to Refinitiv. Output has been rising almost daily since it dropped to 86.3 bcfd during a winter storm on Feb. 4, its lowest since February 2021.

With cold weather moderating, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 129.5 bcfd this week to 120.6 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday.

The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants rose to an average of 12.5 bcfd so far in February, which would top January's monthly record of 12.4 bcfd, as liquefaction trains at Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu Pass plant in Louisiana enter service.

Venture Global got approval from federal regulators on Friday to load the first LNG vessel. A tanker arrived at Calcasieu on Monday and likely will take the plant's first LNG cargo in coming days.

Traders said demand for U.S. LNG would remain strong so long as global gas TRNLTTFMc1 JKMc1 prices keep trading well above U.S. futures as utilities around the world scramble for cargoes to meet surging demand in Asia and replenish low inventories in Europe - especially with the threat that Russia could invade Ukraine and cut gas supplies to Europe. NG/GB

Russia provides 30%-40% of Europe's gas supplies, totaling about 16.3 bcfd in 2021, according to analysts and U.S. energy data.

Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year

Feb. Feb. 4 Feb. 11 average

11(Forecast) (Actual) Feb. 11

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -202 -222 -227 -154

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 1,899 2,101 2,315 2,162

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -12.2% -9.3%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year

Last Year Average Average

2021 (2017-2021)

Henry Hub NGc1 3.96 3.96 2.92 3.73 2.89

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 24.89 24.61 6.14 16.04 7.49

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 24.80 24.72 7.36 18.00 8.95

Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year

Norm Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs 366 363 556 403 390

U.S. GFS CDDs 5 4 5 6 6

U.S. GFS TDDs 371 367 561 409 396

Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year

Last Year Average For

Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 93.1 91.3 93.7 87.8 83.3

U.S. Imports from Canada 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.2 8.9

U.S. LNG Imports 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2

Total U.S. Supply 102.5 100.7 103.1 97.1 92.4

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.0 2.7

U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.8 5.4 5.5 6.0 4.8

U.S. LNG Exports 12.2 12.5 12.5 10.5 4.7

U.S. Commercial 19.4 17.9 16.4 20.5 15.6

U.S. Residential 33.2 30.0 26.6 34.7 26.1

U.S. Power Plant 28.6 28.2 24.2 30.3 26.3

U.S. Industrial 25.9 25.7 25.0 26.7 24.5

U.S. Plant Fuel 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.6

U.S. Pipe Distribution 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.1

U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Total U.S. Consumption 114.9 109.3 99.7 119.6 100.3

Total U.S. Demand 135.3 129.5 120.6 138.1 112.5

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended

Feb 11 Feb 4 Jan 28 Jan 21 Jan 14

Wind 12 11 9 11 10

Solar 3 2 2 2 2

Hydro 7 6 7 7 7

Other 2 2 2 2 2

Petroleum 1 1 1 1 1

Natural Gas 33 33 35 33 34

Coal 24 25 26 25 24

Nuclear 19 19 19 19 20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub Current Day Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL 4.03 4.13

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL 4.46 4.05

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL 4.39 4.45

Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL 3.30 3.65

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL 3.63 4.76

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL 3.93 7.22

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL 3.78 3.91

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL 3.40 3.57

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL 3.00 3.13

SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub Current Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL 45.50 72.00

PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL 22.25 27.25

Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL 25.25 35.25

Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL 29.25 36.50

Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL 37.75 37.25

SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL 38.75 38.50

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

((For Refinitiv type ENERGY in Eikon search bar and then go to the GAS dropdown and the NORTH AMERICA dropdown or see: cpurl://apps.cp./cms/?pageid=usa-gas For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Reuters Eikon terminal. For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/ For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET ) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four) NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651 NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651 ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391 NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C ))