Unlike the previous market, which only focused on botulinum toxin as a core product, this article aims to focus on analyzing the value of the company's one-stop medical and aesthetic platform and the idea of the layout of the entire product line. The structure of the full text is explained as follows:
I. Strategy: Multi-dimensional reshaping of medicine and aesthetics
With its forward-looking layout in the fields of medical aesthetics and innovative pharmaceuticals in the early years, the company successfully transformed and opened a new chapter of development. After Letibao was approved for listing in 2020, Sihuan Medical and Aesthetic quickly became the first tier medical and aesthetic platform in China, pioneered the market with botulinum, and continued to expand the product pipeline through cooperation and self-research, and medical aesthetics also became a new “cash cow” business. The company plans to drive high growth through generic drugs, medical aesthetics and some innovative drug businesses in the short term; to reshape the market position through medical aesthetics and innovative drugs in the long term.
2. Medical Aesthetics: One-stop Platform to Build a Full Matrix
Analyzing the future path of the company's entire product line layout, this article deconstructs the medical and aesthetic business in three dimensions: ① Team foundation and style of play strategy. The core management of Sihuan Medical and Aesthetic has held key marketing and training positions at multinational medical/aesthetic companies such as Airjian and Pfizer. 70% of the marketing team comes from Airjian; ② The journey of a thousand miles began with botulism. LotiBao is positioned as cost-effective. Currently, it is a scarce variety in the low luxury price range. The opening of the price tier plus the protection of the two-year window will drive the sales scale of Letibao to continue to explode. The cumulative sales volume from February 2021 to the end of the year was 400,000 bottles, with revenue expected to exceed 500 million. The long-term forecast is that Letibao's domestic market share will reach 25% and revenue will exceed 2.3 billion by 2023. ③ In addition to botulism, platforms are beginning to appear. The company established the medical and aesthetic platform “Beauty Space” to create a complete product matrix across the medical and aesthetic value chain through the “self-development+BD” dual engine drive. In the future, it is possible to draw on Al's construction of botulinum toxin as a guide to open up channel channels, along with a combination plan for various new products such as hyaluronic acid, children's eye acupuncture, and botulinum fat dissolution. In the future, a rich product layout will consolidate the company's long-term development momentum.
3. Medicine: Steady transformation through a two-pronged approach of imitation
Traditional business transformation and layout of innovative fields. ① Generic drugs A number of generic drug products will be put into production within the year, and the proportion of products not focused on monitoring the catalogue will increase rapidly. The potential of the core product, Clayac and non-PVC powder double-chamber bag products, can be expected. ② The transformation of innovative drugs is accelerating, creating a leading domestic R&D platform: Xuanzhu Biotech is the leading small molecule innovative drug platform in China, valued at 4.5 billion yuan after the first round of financing; Huisheng Biotech is one of the biomedical leaders in the field of diabetes and complications in China, and has developed more than 40 core products in the field of diabetes. ③ API/CDMO creates “APD+CDMO+ formulation” through Kangtong, Jilin
An integrated pharmaceutical company.
IV. Conclusions:
This paper predicts that in 2021-2023, the company will achieve revenue of 36.7/53/74 billion yuan, corresponding to a growth rate of +47%/44%/40%; the return to the mother's net profit of 8.8/12.5/1.75 billion yuan, corresponding growth rate of +85%/42%/41%; and the company's medical and aesthetic business PE40x and pharmaceutical business PE12x in 2022 can obtain a target market value of HK$365 billion, giving it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Market competition increases risks, risks such as risk of Ledtibao's market expansion and product approval progress falling short of expectations, risks such as pharmaceutical policies and market supervision, and the risk that public information used in research reports may be delayed or not updated in a timely manner.