Zhitong Financial APP learned that Citic Construction and Investment issued a research report saying that supply and demand is tight and the rise in international oil prices continues.Focus on recommending global high-quality upstream oil and gas enterprises$CNOOC Limited (00883.HK) $, Petrochina (601857.SH), PetroChina (603619.SH).The upstream of chemical raw materials are mainly coal, gas and oil. With the rise of oil prices, the chemical industry chain is expected to enlarge and transmit from the cost end of raw materials to the price side. It is good to grasp the overseas light hydrocarbon resources and the light hydrocarbon integration leader with the advantages of cost and industry coordination.Satellite Petrochemical (002684.SZ), Donghua Energy (002221.SZ), and leading high-quality coal chemical companies such as Baofeng Energy (600989.SH), Hualu Hengsheng (600426) and Luxi Chemical Industry (000830.SZ) with substitute effect are recommended. The rise in traditional fossil energy is logically good for biodiesel demand substitution, corresponding to Outstanding New Energy (688196.SH) and Jiaao Environmental Protection (603822.SH).
The main points of CITIC Construction Investment are as follows:
Crude oil stocks continued to fall, with oil prices above $90 per barrel.
The world economy has gradually recovered from the epidemic, countries have gradually opened their borders, unlocked travel restrictions, and oil demand has been improving. Us refinery operating rates have remained stable over the past 22 years, with refinery operating rates of 86.7 per cent in the week ended January 28, slightly lower than at the beginning of the month and 6.0pct higher than at the beginning of 21 years. At the same time, the United States formally approved the deployment of more US troops to Eastern Europe on February 2. Under the game between the United States and Russia, the situation in Ukraine remained tense, the world crude oil supply was at risk, and market anxiety rose. Us crude oil inventories continued to decline. In the week ended January 28, 2002, US crude oil inventories fell sharply by 119 million barrels, or 11%, from the beginning of 21 years, the lowest level since February 2012, indicating that supply is still unable to meet the rebound in demand. Supply and demand continued to be tight, supporting the upward movement of the international oil price hub. As of February 4, 22, the spot price of Brent crude oil reached 97.74 US dollars per barrel, a monthly increase of 23 per cent, the highest since October 14 years. WTI spot prices were quoted at 92.31 US dollars per barrel, breaking the 90 US dollars per barrel mark, with a monthly increase of 20 per cent.
The increase in OPEC+ production is limited, and the rise in oil prices is expected to continue.
On February 2, 2022, the 25th ministerial meeting of OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to maintain the original plan to increase production and continue to increase production at the rate of 400000 b / d per month. On January 19, 2002, OPEC issued a monthly report, which showed that the output of OPEC-13 crude oil in December 21 was 27.88 million b / d, an increase of 170000 b / d over November. The increase was limited, and the world crude oil supply continued to be tight. At the same time, the report maintains a 22-year forecast for global crude oil demand, which is expected to reach 100.83 million barrels per day, an increase of 4.15 million barrels per day over 2021. Under the situation of gradual recovery of crude oil consumption and shortage of supply, the increase of OPEC+ production is limited, the world supply and demand of crude oil is expected to remain tight, and the rising trend of oil price is expected to continue.
Oil and gas capital expenditure should be restrained, and oil prices are expected to remain high.
The oil and gas industry is a capital-intensive industry, and the growth of output depends on capital investment. New drilling requires additional capital expenditure, while traditional oil and gas needs a certain construction cycle from capital expenditure to oil output, and the project still needs to continue to invest capital after the project is put into production to avoid the decline of single well production year by year, so as to maintain stable production. In the past 20 years, the global capital expenditure on oil and gas upstream affected by the epidemic was only US $329.7 billion, a sharp drop of 34% compared with the same period last year. Crude oil prices have continued to pick up in the past 21 years, but global oil and gas capital expenditure is still tight, rising only slightly by 10% to US $362.3 billion compared with the same period last year. it is down 27% from 19 years, far below the average of the past decade. The persistently low capital expenditure of the oil and gas industry undoubtedly poses a threat to crude oil production. Superimposed by OPEC+, the increase in production is slow, and the global crude oil supply is inflexible. Under the background of the gradual recovery of crude oil demand, oil prices are still expected to remain high.
This article is edited from the official account of CSC FINANCIAL CO.,LTD Research, author: Deng Sheng; Zhitong Financial Editor: Wang Jie.