Event Overview
The company issued a forecast of its annual performance in 2021. During the reporting period, the net profit of the company returned to its parent was a loss of 1.70-300 million yuan, compared with a loss of 710 million yuan in the same period last year. Among them, if the impairment is not taken into account, the net profit of return to the mother in the fourth quarter is a loss of 0.24-44 million yuan, and the net profit in the third quarter is 30 million yuan. There are signs of impairment of the company's combined goodwill of about 20-170 million yuan, while the impairment of 150 million yuan involving Chilean subsidiary Australis has not yet been recognized.
Analysis and judgment:
Salmon demand recovers and performance improves significantly
In 2021, benefiting from the active control of the global epidemic, the demand for salmon recovered, and the company's product prices rebounded synchronously, promoting the company to turn losses into profits in the second and third quarters. Chile's subsidiary Australis made a net profit of 88 million yuan in the third quarter, and the gross profit margin rebounded sharply to 22%. The net profit of homing in the fourth quarter was a loss, dragging down the full-year net profit, mainly because of the high cost of the company as a whole. But on the whole, the trend of gradual recovery of the company's performance is obvious, and the annual performance has greatly reduced losses compared with the same period last year.
Looking to the future, the gradual improvement of the global epidemic will lead to a continuous pick-up in demand for salmon, with limited growth on the supply side under the restrictions on the number of farming licenses, and the company's products are expected to rise in both quantity and price, supporting the performance to turn losses into profits.
After entering the post-epidemic era, the cost is expected to improve gradually.
In 2021, with the normalization of the global epidemic, the company's labor employment costs, cross-border logistics costs and storage costs have increased, and the examination and approval efficiency of salmon has also been affected. After the superimposed debt acquisition of Australis, the financial expenses are at a higher level, the overall cost of the company is higher, and the profit level is significantly affected. However, looking forward to 2022 and 2023, it is expected that with the gradual improvement of the global epidemic, the company's relevant operating costs will be effectively controlled. In addition, with the completion and commissioning of the company's Chilean salmon intelligent factory project in the future, it will completely solve the problem of nearby production and processing in Magellan District, promote the overall improvement of aquaculture processing efficiency and product quality, and achieve cost reduction and efficiency efficiency. On the other hand, in addition to subscribing for all directional additional shares of the company with 416 million yuan in 2020, Jiawo Group, the controlling shareholder, will continue to vigorously support the company's equity financing, debt-to-equity swap, and the introduction of strategic investors, and the company's debt structure may be improved in the future. further free profit space.
Firmly control the scarce and high-quality resources upstream, and profits are expected to increase.
The growth environment of salmon is high, and the global suitable sea area is limited and irreplaceable. In addition, salmon farming requires high industrialization and intelligence of enterprises, and licenses are extremely scarce. Norway, the main producing region of the world, has only issued a small amount through auction, while Chile has stopped issuing. The company acquired Australis in 2019, which has farming licenses in several regions of Chile and has 29 licenses in the 12 districts with the largest space for development in the future. In addition, Australis has taken the lead in establishing an industrialized and information-based aquaculture system, with strong quality control and world-class breeding technology and operation. From 2010 to 2019, the global salmon sales CAGR reached 7%, and the consumption volume is increasing; while the supply-side production capacity expansion is limited under the background of strict aquaculture regulation, and the gap between supply and demand drives up the price center, the company is forward-looking to acquire the scarce resources of upstream salmon to ensure the future capacity improvement space, while consolidating the leading position, it is expected to fully benefit from rising prices, thus thickening profits.
Investment suggestion
Taking into account the fact that the volume and price of the company's salmon products have risen and the performance has improved significantly, but the overall performance is at a loss, we have lowered our revenue forecast for 2021-2022 to 57.89 / 6.869 billion yuan (the previous value is 7.298 billion yuan respectively), and reduced the net profit of returning to the mother to-191 million million yuan (the previous value is 0.86 hundred million yuan respectively). Considering that the improvement of the global epidemic will lead to a pick-up in seafood consumption in the future, the company holds the upstream core scarce resources and predicts that in 2023, the company's revenue will be 8.161 billion yuan and its net profit will be 403 million yuan. To sum up, we estimate that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be-1.10 Universe 0.89 Placement 2.31 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 17.47 Yuan per share on January 28, 2022, and the PE will be-16 Placement 20 Placement 8X respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint
Epidemic risk, salmon price recovery is not as expected risk, policy disturbance risk.
