Events:
The company announced its annual performance forecast for 2021 on January 27th. It is expected to achieve a net profit of 302-371 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 30%-60% over the same period last year, deducting a non-return net profit of 2.92-345 million yuan, an increase of 65%-95% over the same period last year.
Comments:
The net profit increases steadily, and the comprehensive gross profit margin is expected to increase. In 2021, the company achieved a net profit of 3.02-371 million yuan, an increase of 30%-60% over the same period last year. In the fourth quarter alone, the net profit reached 0.6-129 million yuan, an increase of-46.79%-14.4% over the same period last year, and a month-on-month increase of-45.9%-16.32%. The overall profit level of the company increased significantly. 2021 through self-developed "grass seed industry" and "ecological data system"
Accurately restore the ecology and form an ecological restoration model with core competitiveness. The construction, acceptance and audit of the company's project are smooth, and the project implementation effect is good. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 40.6%, an increase of 9.68pct over the same period last year. It is expected that the comprehensive gross profit margin in 2021 will be higher than that of the previous year.
The PPP project has been operating one after another to release benefits, and the amount of newly signed contracts has increased significantly. The company's PPP project has entered the operation period one after another, and the contribution revenue of the PPP project in 2021 increased by about 182 million yuan over the previous year. In the first half of 2021, the company signed 61 new engineering construction contracts, with a contract value of 2.868 billion yuan, an increase of 690.57% over the same period last year. According to the announcement, the company won the bid in June 2021 with a loan from the European Investment Bank for the comprehensive management project of Horqin Sandy Land in Tongliao City, Inner Mongolia. 2 packages of local tree species mixed forest construction project, the winning amount is about 1.461 billion yuan, with the continuous landing of the order, the company's future performance is guaranteed.
With the steady improvement of production and operation, the core competitive advantage will gradually emerge. In 2021, the company realized non-recurrent profit and loss of about 920000 yuan, a decrease of 98.34% over the same period last year, while the company still achieved a positive increase of 30%, 60%, showing the strength of the company's main business, indicating that the overall production and operation of the company has improved steadily. The company's total investment in scientific research is nearly 1.1 billion yuan in the past decade, and 140 million yuan in 2020. The proportion of R & D investment in the company's profits is increasing year by year.
The R & D content of the company is all around ecological restoration. On the one hand, the investment in R & D not only strengthens the company's core competitiveness, but also feeds the company's business level and improves the company's profit margin and project quality.
Give the company a "buy" rating with a target price of 5.80 yuan. It is estimated that the EPS of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 0 yuan, 20 yuan, 0.29 yuan, 0.38 yuan, respectively.
Risk tips: project schedule and payback risk, performance forecast and valuation below expectations.