What happened: the company issued a forecast for its performance in 2021, with an estimated operating income of 1616.0-165 billion yuan, an increase of 111.0%-115.0% over the same period last year; a net profit of 150.0-15.35 billion yuan, an increase of 196.0%-203.0% over the same period last year; and a net profit of 100.0-10.3 billion yuan belonging to shareholders of listed companies, an increase of 128.0%-135.0% over the same period last year. Net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 93.5-9.55 billion yuan, an increase of 219.0% and 226.0% over the same period last year. The company's performance is growing rapidly over the same period last year, in line with expectations.
TCL Huaxing Semiconductor display + Central Semiconductor Photovoltaic two blossoms, the company's performance growth in 2021 is considerable.
In 2021, the company's performance grew rapidly, mainly for the following reasons: 1) benefiting from the high prosperity of the industry in the first half of the year, the continuous shipment of medium-and high-end large-size panels, and the flexible adjustment and optimization of the company's capacity structure, the company's semiconductor display business maintained a high growth rate despite a high market share: revenue grew by more than 80% year-on-year and net profit by more than 33% year-on-year. 2) Central Semiconductor has improved efficiency through scientific and technological innovation, accelerated the scale of G12, and the transformation of product structure has been carried out smoothly, among which the profit of photovoltaic materials business has increased significantly, which has become a new driving force for the company's performance growth in 2021. 3) the industrial financial sector ensures a stable contribution throughout the year, supporting and empowering the company's core industries.
Large-size TV panels lead the industry, small and medium-sized panels continue to enter the field of IT and vehicles, and the company's semiconductor display business structure will continue to be optimized. The panel industry is highly prosperous in the first half of 2021, although the panel price is adjusted back in the second half of the year, the company has maintained a good profit level by virtue of its leading edge in the middle and high end of large-size panels. As Samsung clears its LCD capacity, it is expected that the industry concentration will further increase, and the industry competition pattern will improve. The company's high-end positioning in TV and Shangxian is conducive to the stable profitability of its large-size business, while with the release of production capacity of T9 production line located in high value-added display screen, the company's share in the field of IT and vehicles is on the rise, dynamic capacity allocation will be more reasonable, and the company's competitiveness and profitability are expected to be further improved.
Central semiconductor photovoltaic and material multi-line layout, economies of scale. In terms of photovoltaic materials, the company gives full play to the technical advantages of G12 + stacked tiles, accelerates production expansion, and increases market share rapidly. The production capacity of semiconductor materials has expanded steadily, and the product structure of 8-12 inches has been continuously upgraded, which has reduced the operating costs of the factory while increasing the yield and gross profit margin. In the future, the company will accelerate the expansion of G12 silicon wafers while reducing costs and increasing efficiency, and the company's business profitability is expected to continue to grow.
Profit forecast and investment advice. From 2021 to 2023, the company's operating income is estimated to be 162.32 billion yuan, 1792.3 billion yuan, respectively, and the return net profit is 102.4 million yuan, 129.9 billion yuan, respectively. Considering the company's competitive advantage in mid-and high-end large-size panels, the expansion of the semiconductor business and the higher valuation enjoyed by the photovoltaic industry, the company is valued at 12 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 11.16 yuan and maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: repeated risk of epidemic situation; lower-than-expected risk of capacity climbing; lower-than-expected risk of downstream demand.