Subscription analysis:
1. The issuance scale of Borjay's convertible bonds was 526 million yuan, and the debt and entity ratings were AA-/AA-grade; the conversion price was 62.17 yuan, with a conversion value of 102.9 yuan as of November 12, 2021; the arithmetic average value of each year's coupon interest was 1.52 yuan, and the maturity compensation interest rate was 15%, which is a high level of newly issued convertible bonds.
Based on the discount rate of 6.84% to maturity of 6-year AA-grade Chinese bond companies on November 12, 2021, the debt base was 84.08 yuan, and the value of pure bonds was average. Other game terms are market-based terms. If all shares are converted to the dilution pressure on the total share capital, the dilution pressure on the total share capital is 6.06%, and the dilution pressure on the tradable share capital is 21.73%, the pressure to dilute the existing share capital is strong.
2. As of November 12, 2021, the top three shareholders of the company, Wang Zhaochun, Fu Lin, and Cheng Jun, held 23.19%, 17.40%, and 7.71% of the total share capital respectively. The controlling shareholder did not promise priority placement. According to predictions based on the current stage of market development revenue and environment, the first-day placement scale is expected to be around 66%. The remaining amount of new debt purchased online is 179 million yuan. Since the maximum purchase limit for a single household is 1 million yuan, assuming that the number of online subscription accounts is between 950-10.5 million, the winning rate is expected to be around 0.0017%-0.0019%.
3. The company's industry is in other special machinery (Shenwan Level 3). From a valuation perspective, as of the close of November 12, 2021, the company's PE (TTM) was 33.84 times, which is lower among 10 peer companies with similar income, with a market capitalization of 8.936 billion yuan, which is lower than the average of peers in the industry. As of November 12, 2021, the company's underlying stock has fallen by 41.88% since this year, the industry index has risen 6.48%, Wandequan A has risen 6.48%, and since listing, the annualized volatility has been 63.43%, and the stock is highly elastic.
The company's current equity pledge ratio is 0.00%, and there is no risk of pledging. Other risk points: 1. Risk of impact of COVID-19; 2. Risk of international trade friction; 3. Market development risk for electrical products such as low-voltage appliances; 4. Risk of exchange rate fluctuations; 5. Risk of dilution of immediate returns.
4. Broger's debt conversion scale is average, and debt bottom protection is average. The parity price is higher than face value. The market may give a premium of 14%. The estimated listing price is around 117 yuan. It is recommended to actively participate in new bond purchases.
Risk warning: risk of default, risk of convertible bond prices fluctuating or even below face value, risk of issuing convertible bonds that cannot be converted to shares at maturity, risk of diluting earnings per share and return on net assets, risks associated with this convertible bond conversion, risk of changes in credit ratings, risk of underlying stock fluctuations, listing income premium lower than expected