Fourth-quarter revenue reached a record $4.88 billion, up 101.4% from a year earlier. In 2021, the company expects airline revenue to be $4.88 billion in the fourth quarter, an increase of 101.4% over the same period last year. Affected by serious congestion in the airline network, the company expects to complete 185.02 TEU cargo in the fourth quarter of 2021, down 16.9% from the same period last year; the average per-box revenue was $2637.8, an increase of 142.3% over the same period last year. In terms of routes, cross-Pacific routes and Asia and Europe are seriously congested, with the company's freight volume falling by nearly 25% in the fourth quarter, and the increase in freight rates is also the most obvious. For the whole of 2021, the company expects cumulative total route revenue to be US $15.681 billion, an increase of 110.2% over the same period last year; cumulative completed freight volume is 758.7 TEU, up 1.7% from the same period last year; and average per-container revenue is US $2066.7, an increase of 106.7% over the same period last year.

There is abundant cash flow without major capital expenditure, the cumulative dividend return in the next two years is nearly 50%, and there are no major capital expenditure items; at the same time, SASAC encourages state-owned shareholders of listed companies to reasonably increase the proportion of cash dividends. COSCO Shipping Holdings's shareholding ratio is more than 70%, increasing the dividend will help the state-owned capital to become bigger and stronger, so the company has the incentive to increase the dividend. Almost all of the company's net profit in 2020 and the first half of 2021 was spent on dividends, with a dividend payout rate of nearly 100%. According to the target dividend yield of 40% in the company's dividend policy, the dividend in 2022 and 2023 is expected to be US $4.286 billion and US $3.48 billion, with a two-year cumulative dividend return of 47.9%.

The imbalance between supply and demand of container transportation may continue until the end of 2022. In terms of demand for long-term agreement prices, the US retail treasury-to-sales ratio is still at an all-time low, and there is still sufficient support for trade demand. On the supply side, 1) congestion at the US-West port may run through 2022; 2) the subsequent port congestion may be transferred to the sea; 3) the US-West Wharf Union has formally rejected the proposal to extend the labor contract for one year, and it is inevitable to slow down during the 2022 negotiations. 4) the willingness of American truck drivers to work has changed. In 2022, the long-term agreement price of the European line may increase 2-3 times compared with the same period last year, while the long-term agreement price of the United States line may more than double, and the forward price may remain high.

Continue to maintain Orient Overseas's "buy" rating and maintain the target price of HK $407. It is estimated that the operating income from 2021 to 2023 will be US $164.1, US $206.7 and US $18.96 billion respectively, an increase of 100.3%, 26.0% and-8.3% over the same period last year, and the net profit will reach US $73.0, 107.2 and 8.7 billion respectively, an increase of 700.3%, 46.2% and-22.0% over the same period last year, corresponding to 2.14,1.46,1.80 times.