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華爾街見聞 · Jan 27, 2022 11:00

在华尔街见闻·见智研究1月11日的报告《2021年锂电装机量大增近1.5倍，市场演变为中韩竞争？| 见智研究》中对2021年整个动力电池行业的主要车企（包括宁德时代、比亚迪、LG新能源等）的产量、销量和装机量对比，全年总结以及未来的重要布局进行了详尽的分析，本篇报告将接上篇进一步针对动力电池双雄——三元电池和磷酸铁锂电池的全年产量和装机量情况和两者全面对比情况，继续进行全面梳理。

1、三元不会被铁锂取代，成本劣势在减弱

2021年，整个三元锂电池的市场的确受到了磷酸铁锂电池的冲击，在经历了3年的三元锂电池对磷酸铁锂电池的市场份额大幅优势后，磷酸铁锂电池在2021年实现了逆袭，全年三元锂电池在产量、销量、装机量三大方面都被磷酸铁锂电池反超：

1）产量：三元锂电池全年产量为93.9GWh，同比增长93.6%，占总产量的42.7%，不敌磷酸铁锂125.4GWh的产量，同比增长262.9%，占比达到57.1%。
2）销量：三元锂电池全年销量为79.6GWh，同比增长128.9%，占总销量的42.8%，不敌磷酸铁锂106GWh的销量，同比增长245%，占比达到57.2%。
3）装机量：三元锂电池全年装机量为74.3GWh，同比增长91.3%，占总装机量的48.1%，不敌磷酸铁锂79.8GWh的装机量，同比增长227.4%，占比达到57.1%

华尔街见闻·见智研究认为，虽然磷酸铁锂电池在2021年表现尚好，但是三元锂电池和磷酸铁锂电池在未来仍将保持长期共存的状态，不存在完全的碾压和替代关系，只存在阶段性的此起彼伏，这一点在过去2009年到2021年这12年三元锂电池和磷酸铁锂电池三个阶段的份额彼此互相超越上已有所体现。

此外，三元低镍电池如3系和5系电池，由于电池能量密度等性能仅比磷酸铁锂稍微高一点，但是其热失控等管理成本却和8系差不多，在成本大增的情况下考虑到性价比容易被磷酸铁锂电池抢占份额。但逐渐占据三元份额的高镍、超高镍以及无钴三元电池在高端市场的竞争优势依然明显，其优质性能是磷酸铁锂电池无法媲美和取代的。

而磷酸铁锂电池虽然对其感兴趣的车企逐渐增多，但高端品牌对其的使用占比还是偏低，在2021年的终端配套车企上仍主要集中在$比亚迪股份(01211.HK)$、上汽通用五菱和$特斯拉(TSLA.US)$，三者占比近80%。即使是在2021年最先提出使用磷酸铁锂电池的特斯拉，也仅仅是在全球范围的标准版车型产品上采用磷酸铁锂电池，而其它高性能车型如高续航版，以及高端车型如Model X和ModelS等仍将使用高镍少钴的三元锂电池，尤其是其4680大圆柱电池即将在2022年上线正式使用。

值得注意的是，2021年全年来看，磷酸铁锂电池和三元锂电池的材料价格方面，虽然价格绝对值来看，三元材料仍然高于磷酸铁锂，但是磷酸铁锂的价格增幅却已经远远超过三元材料，这将减弱三元相对铁锂的成本劣势。磷酸铁锂（动力型）的价格从2021年年初的4万元/吨涨到年末的11.1万元/吨，涨幅高达177.5%，截止1月14日再次涨价到12.6万元/吨；而三元材料最常用的三种型号523型，622型和811型的价格分别从年初的12.35万元/吨、14.55万元/吨和17万元/吨涨至年末的24.8万元/吨、26.6万元/吨和27.6万元/吨，涨幅分别为100%、83%和62%。

2、2022年，国际市场面临铁锂的全面导入

2021年，磷酸铁锂的产量和电池装机大幅攀升，最主要的原因除了此前华尔街见闻·见智研究提到的锂电池上游原材料如四大材料，铜箔等价格上涨幅度较大，使得具有更低的成本磷酸铁锂电池，性价比优势明显，还在于终端车企对其使用的动力电池的偏好改变，尤其是爆款乘用车的动力电池配套变化。

此前，由于补贴政策对电池能量密度和汽车的续航里程的偏好，使得磷酸铁锂电池主要运用在商用车上，2021年全年商用车销量为18.6万辆，同比增长仅46.6%，与乘用车352.1万辆的销量与1.1倍的增长率差距较大，而商用车的磷酸铁锂装机量在10GWh左右，同比仅个位数增长，可以说和2020年的装机量情况基本持平；但乘用车的磷酸铁锂装机量却超过了30GWh，同比大增超900%，占磷酸铁锂动力电池装机总电量的75%以上，是磷酸铁锂电池在2021年装机量大增的主要原因。

这一点在2021年，国内外各大主流车企的选择上有所体现。比亚迪、$小鹏汽车-W(09868.HK)$、$吉利汽车(00175.HK)$、$上汽集团(600104.SH)$等国内车企，和大众汽车、特斯拉、戴姆勒、$福特汽车(F.US)$、现代等国际车企都相继表示将要导入磷酸铁锂电池，其中具有代表性的国外车企如特斯拉目前在我国国内销售的Model 3和Model Y中铁锂版本的销量占比已经接近80%，同时进一步的全球其他市场的标准续航版Model 3和Model Y也都开始采用磷酸铁锂电池；国内车企比亚迪更是磷酸铁锂电池的领军人物，旗下的车型配套磷酸铁锂电池和三元锂电池的使用占比从2020年的5.5:4.5一下子提升到2021年的9.4:0.6。

各大终端车企的集体偏好，也导致电池厂商纷纷转变了方向，此前主打三元锂电池的LG新能源、SK创新等也在2021年宣布进军磷酸铁锂，整体来看，动力电池装机量排名前十的电池厂商除了松下，其他都已经开始布局磷酸铁锂电池。很显然，2021年中磷酸铁锂电池装机量、产量等方面能出现大幅度的增长与国内外车企的动力电池偏好转变，动力电池厂商的布局是高度相关的。

当然，2021年全年磷酸铁锂占比加快的趋势主要还是集中在我国市场，海外对于磷酸铁锂的需求并没有国内这么高，仍旧是以三元锂电池为主，但是这一趋势有望在2022年迎来变化。如果说2021年是磷酸铁锂电池在国内动力电池市场掀起产量、装机量对三元锂电池的反超，那么在新的一年2022年磷酸铁锂电池除了在国内动力电池市场继续保持优势，在三元锂电池一直保持霸主地位的国际动力电池市场（海外不管是储能领域还是新能源汽车领域，三元锂电池占比都超过三分之二）或也将面临市场份额的迅速提升，不排除首次反超三元锂电池的可能。

3、2022年，三元和铁锂的展望

2021年，磷酸铁锂产业链几乎全年处于高景气度中，但其中，磷酸铁锂正极材料的主力玩家依旧是德方纳米，湖南裕能，湖北万润等专业玩家，全年磷酸铁锂产量总计为41万吨，同比上涨179%，增速与新能源汽车销量几乎相当（累计零售298.9万辆，同比增长169.1%），整体处于供需紧平衡状态，但是到了2022年，将会有不少新玩家入局并进行了大规模的产能扩充。

磷化工企业（川恒股份、兴发集团等拥有上游磷资源的公司）、钛白粉企业（中核钛白等具有原材料和硫酸亚铁副产产的化工企业）以及主打三元材料的公司（当升科技、厦钨新能、长远锂科等都已经官宣进军磷酸铁锂产业），产能规划更是都高达十万吨，虽然这些磷化工的项目由于目前能评、安评等审批逐渐趋严，新增产能也存在产能爬坡等问题，规划的产能未必能迅速出来，但是长期来看磷酸铁锂的供给量有过剩的可能。这将对磷酸铁锂产业造成一定的冲击，一旦终端车企对磷酸铁锂电池市场的需求减弱，或将造成整体产能过剩，尤其是新加入的玩家的产品同质化高，相比同行没有优势，容易造成低价恶性竞争。

而对于三元锂电池，虽然在2021年被磷酸铁锂电池反超，在增速方面更是有不小的距离，但在2022年，4680电池的推出和高镍无钴化的进程将有望给三元锂电池带来机会和体量的大幅增加，并全面提升高镍三元锂电池在整个三元锂电池中的占比提升。

2021 年，我国的三元高镍材料产量，包括NCA和NCM 811，达到14万吨左右，同比增长超260%，而随着供给方，成本降低且性能有所提升的无钴锂电池、四元锂电池，和适合高镍三元的4680电池在2022年的上市，以及需求方，终端车企的高端车型和高端品牌对高镍三元的需求的持续加大，高镍三元锂电池将有望继续保持高速增长，进一步占据中低镍三元的份额，并实现对磷酸铁锂电池的逆转。

According to the report of January 11 on Wall Street, "the installed capacity of lithium electricity has increased nearly 1.5 times in 2021, and the market has evolved into a competition between China and South Korea?" | the production, sales and installed capacity of major car companies in the power battery industry in 2021 (including Ningde era, BYD, LG New Energy, etc.), annual summary and future important layout are analyzed in detail. This report will further focus on the annual output and installed capacity of power battery duo-ternary battery and lithium iron phosphate battery and a comprehensive comparison between the two in the first part of this report. < pad > < Abstrcat > Continue to conduct a comprehensive comb.

1Ternary will not be replaced by iron lithium, and the cost disadvantage is weakening.

In 2021, the whole market of ternary lithium battery was indeed impacted by lithium iron phosphate battery. After three years' market share advantage of ternary lithium battery to lithium iron phosphate battery, the market share of ternary lithium battery was greatly superior to that of lithium iron phosphate battery.The lithium iron phosphate battery achieved a counterattack in 2021, and the ternary lithium battery was surpassed by the lithium iron phosphate battery in terms of output, sales and installed capacity in the whole year.：

1) output:The annual output of ternary lithium battery was 93.9GWh, an increase of 93.6% over the same period last year, accounting for 42.7% of the total output, which was inferior to that of lithium iron phosphate 125.4GWh, up 262.9% from the same period last year, accounting for 57.1%.
2) sales volumeThe sales volume of ternary lithium batteries for the whole year was 79.6GWh, up 128.9% from the same period last year, accounting for 42.8% of the total sales, which was inferior to that of lithium iron phosphate 106GWh, up 24.5% from the same period last year, accounting for 57.2%.
3) installed capacity:The installed capacity of ternary lithium battery for the whole year was 74.3GWh, an increase of 91.3% over the same period last year, accounting for 48.1% of the total installed capacity, which was inferior to that of lithium iron phosphate 79.8GWh, an increase of 227.4% over the same period last year, accounting for 57.1%.

Wall Street Wisdom Research believes that although lithium iron phosphate batteries perform well in 2021,Ternary lithium battery and lithium iron phosphate battery will continue to coexist for a long time in the future.There is no complete rolling and substitution relationship, only periodic ups and downs, which has been reflected in the share of ternary lithium battery and lithium iron phosphate battery surpassing each other in the past 12 years from 2009 to 2021.

In additionTernary low-nickel batteries, such as 3-series and 5-series batteries, are only slightly higher than lithium iron phosphate in terms of energy density, but their management costs such as thermal runaway are about the same as those of 8-series battery. in the case of a great increase in cost, considering that the performance-to-price ratio is easy to be captured by lithium iron phosphate batteries. ButGradually occupying a ternary share.High nickel, ultra high nickel and cobalt-free ternary batteriesThe competitive advantage in the high-end market is still obvious.The excellent performance can not be matched and replaced by lithium iron phosphate battery.。

而Although more and more car companies are interested in lithium iron phosphate battery, the proportion of high-end brands is still on the low side, and the terminal supporting car companies in 2021 are still mainly focused on$Byd Company Limited (01211.HK) $, SAIC GM Wuling and$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $The three account for nearly 80%. Even if the lithium iron phosphate battery was first proposed in 2021Tesla, Inc. only uses lithium iron phosphate batteries on standard models worldwide, while other high-performance models such as the high-endurance version, as well as high-end models such as Model X and ModelS, will still use ternary lithium batteries with high nickel and less cobalt, especially its 4680 cylindrical battery will be officially put into use in 2022.

It is worth noting that in terms of material prices for lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary lithium batteries in 2021, although the absolute value of the price of ternary materials is still higher than that of lithium iron phosphate, the price increase of lithium iron phosphate has far exceeded that of ternary materials, which will weaken the cost disadvantage of ternary relative to lithium iron.. The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) rose from 40, 000 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2021 to 111000 yuan / ton at the end of the year, an increase of 177.5%. By January 14, it rose again to 126000 yuan / ton. The prices of the three most commonly used models of ternary materials, 523, 622 and 811, rose from 123500 yuan / ton, 145500 yuan / ton and 170000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 248000 yuan / ton, 266000 yuan / ton and 276000 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with increases of 100%, 83% and 62%, respectively.

2In 2022, the international market will face the full introduction of iron and lithium.

2021年，The output of lithium iron phosphate and battery installation have risen sharply, the main reason is that the price of lithium battery upstream raw materials such as four major materials and copper foil mentioned in previous Wall Street research has increased greatly, which makes lithium iron phosphate battery with lower cost and obvious performance-to-price advantage. it also lies in the change of terminal car companies' preference for the power batteries they use, especially the power battery matching changes of popular passenger cars.。

Previously, due to the preference for battery energy density and vehicle range under the subsidy policy, lithium iron phosphate batteries were mainly used in commercial vehicles. Sales of commercial vehicles in 2021 were 186000, an increase of only 46.6% over the same period last year, which lagged far behind the growth rate of 3.521 million passenger vehicles, while the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate in commercial vehicles was about 10GWh, only a single-digit increase compared with the same period last year. It can be said that the installed capacity is basically the same as that in 2020. However, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate in passenger cars has exceeded that of 30GWh, a year-on-year increase of more than 900%, accounting for more than 75% of the total installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate power batteries, which is the main reason for the great increase in the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries in 2021.

This is reflected in the choice of major domestic and foreign mainstream car companies in 2021. BYD,$XPeng Inc.-W (09868.HK) $、$Geely Automobile (00175.HK) $、$SAIC (600104.SH) $And other domestic car companies, and Volkswagen, Tesla, Inc., Daimler,$F.US (Ford) $International car companies, such as Hyundai and Hyundai, have said that they will introduce lithium iron phosphate batteries, among which representative foreign car companies, such as Tesla, Inc., account for nearly 80% of the sales of lithium iron versions in Model 3 and Model Y currently sold in China. At the same time, the standard endurance versions of Model 3 and Model Y in other markets around the world have also begun to use lithium iron phosphate batteries. BYD, a domestic car company, is a leader in lithium iron phosphate batteries, with the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary lithium batteries in its models rising from 5.5 per cent in 2020 to 9.4 per cent in 2021.

The collective preference of the major terminal car companies has also led to a change of direction among battery manufacturers. Previously, LG new energy and SK innovation, which mainly focus on ternary lithium batteries, also announced their entry into lithium iron phosphate in 2021. On the whole, the top 10 battery manufacturers with the largest installed capacity of power batteries, except Panasonic, have begun to layout lithium iron phosphate batteries.It is obvious that the substantial increase in the installed capacity and output of lithium iron phosphate battery in 2021 is closely related to the change of power battery preference of domestic and foreign automobile enterprises, and the layout of power battery manufacturers is highly related.

Of course, the accelerated trend of lithium iron phosphate in 2021 is mainly concentrated in the Chinese market, the overseas demand for lithium iron phosphate is not so high in China, and it is still dominated by ternary lithium batteries, but this trend is expected to change in 2022.If the output and installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the domestic power battery market surpass that of ternary lithium batteries in 2021, then in the new year2022In addition to maintaining its advantages in the domestic power battery market, lithium iron phosphate batteries have always maintained a dominant position in the international power battery market (overseas, whether in the field of energy storage or in the field of new energy vehicles, the proportion of ternary lithium batteries is more than 2/3).A rapid increase in market shareThe possibility of surpassing the ternary lithium battery for the first time cannot be ruled out.

3、2022The Prospect of Ternary and Iron Lithium in

In 2021, the lithium iron phosphate industry chain is almost in a high demeanor for the whole year, but among them, the main players of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials are still German Nano, Hunan Yuneng, Hubei Wanrun and other professional players. The annual output of lithium iron phosphate totaled 410000 tons, an increase of 179% over the same period last year, and the growth rate is almost the same as that of new energy vehicles (cumulative retail sales of 2.989 million vehicles, year-on-year growth of 169.1%), and the overall supply and demand is in a tight balance. But by 2022, there will be a lot of new players coming in and a massive capacity expansion.

Phosphorus chemical enterprises (Chuan Heng shares, Xingfa Group and other companies with upstream phosphorus resources), titanium dioxide enterprises (chemical enterprises with raw materials and ferrous sulfate by-products such as medium nuclear titanium dioxide) and ternary materials companies (Dangsheng Technology, Xiamen Tungsten Xinneng, long-term Lithium, etc.), the production capacity planning is as high as 100,000 tons. Although these phosphorus chemical projects due to the gradual tightening of energy assessment, safety assessment and other approval, the new capacity also has problems such as capacity climbing, and the planned capacity may not come out quickly, but in the long run, there is a possibility of excess supply of lithium iron phosphate.This will have a certain impact on the lithium iron phosphate industry. Once the demand of terminal car enterprises for lithium iron phosphate battery market weakens, it may cause overall overcapacity, especially the high homogenization of the products of the new players, which has no advantage compared with their peers. It is easy to cause vicious competition at low prices.

As for the ternary lithium battery, although it was surpassed by the lithium iron phosphate battery in 2021, there is a great distance in terms of growth.在2022年，4680The introduction of the battery and the high-nickel cobalt-free process are expected to bring opportunities and a substantial increase in the volume of ternary lithium batteries, and comprehensively enhance the proportion of high-nickel ternary lithium batteries in the whole ternary lithium batteries.

In 2021, the output of ternary high nickel materials in China, including NCA and NCM 811, reached about 140000 tons, an increase of more than 260% over the same period last year, while with the supply side, cobalt-free lithium batteries, quaternary lithium batteries with reduced cost and improved performance, and 4680 batteries suitable for high-nickel ternary batteries will be put on the market in 2022, as well as the demand for high-nickel ternary batteries from high-end models and high-end brands of terminal car companies. High nickel ternary lithium battery is expected to continue to grow at a high speed, further occupy the share of medium and low nickel ternary battery, and reverse the lithium iron phosphate battery.

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