Main points of investment
The performance of China's leading sportswear brands has recovered since 2021. The company locates the sports and leisure shoes and clothing accessories for adults and children in the mass market, and the performance has experienced a process of decline and then recovery since the epidemic. In 2020, revenue affected by the epidemic fell 8.3% from the same period last year, and net profit from home fell 4.01% from the same period last year.
With the weakening of the impact of the epidemic, the revenue and net profit of 2021H1 have returned to the pre-epidemic level, with revenue of 3.150 billion yuan / yoy+17.09%/ 28.5% higher than that of 2019H1N1, and net profit of 401m yuan / yoy+32.9%/ compared with 45.9% of 2019H1N1.
From a quarterly point of view, the whole product Q4 pipeline ring is faster than that of the whole product. 2021Q1-Q4361 main brand pipelining recorded year-on-year high double-digit / 15% Mel 20% / low double-digit / high double-digit growth; 361 children's clothing brands increased by 20%, 30%, 30%, 35%, 15%, 20%, 20% and 25%, respectively. Combined with four quarters of performance, the company's revenue in 2021 is expected to reach the middle double-digit level compared with the same period last year.
By category, the growth rate of children's clothing is faster than that of adult clothing. The income of 2021H1 adult wear / children's wear is 498 million yuan for adults and 23.99 percent for children's wear, respectively, and the proportion of income is 83.14 Plus 16.03 percent, respectively, compared with 2020 + 2.47/-2.15pct. In adult wear, the income of 2021H1 footwear, clothing and accessories increased by 22.470.09% respectively compared with the same period last year, and the proportion of income was 44.43% 37.58%, respectively, which was + 3.84/-1.46/+0.10pct compared with 2020.
From a sub-channel point of view, online speed-up and offline channel optimization. The online / offline income of 2021H1 Company is 4.88 / 2.619 billion yuan, 10.6% respectively, compared with the same period last year, and the proportion of revenue is 15.7%, 84.3%, respectively, compared with + 0.3/-0.3pct in 2020. 1) online, independent research and development of Mini Program was launched in 2021, and online offerings were sold on Tmall, Kuaishou Technology, Douyin and other platforms. The turnover of Tmall official flag in 2021 increased by more than 40%. The cumulative sales of the new spokesperson Gong Jun track series have exceeded 10 million. 2) offline, the number of 2020H1/2020/2021H1 stores is 5289, 5165, 5155 respectively, and offline revenue is still growing even though the stores are shrinking, reflecting the improvement in store efficiency (2021H1 same-store revenue yoy+10.6%). In the future, the company will continue to implement the strategy of "closing small stores and opening big stores" to optimize store image and improve store efficiency. The number of ninth-generation image stores and 2020/2021H1 stores launched since June 2020 is 294Universe 694.
2021H1 gross profit margin reached the highest level in nearly three years. 2021H1 retracted the average wholesale price of distributors, superimposed on the company's production efficiency optimization, and 2021H1 gross profit margin rebounded 4.0pct to 41.8% year-on-year, of which footwear / clothing / children's wear gross profit margin increased by 1.8 / 5.2 / 6.0pct year-on-year to 43.1 shock 41.2 2021H1 42.0%. Due to repeated domestic epidemics in the third and fourth quarters, we expect gross profit margin to be flat or decline slightly in the second half of 2021.
Profit forecast and investment rating: as a leading sportswear brand in China, the company can effectively improve its operating condition and profitability by strengthening brand promotion and channel adjustment after the epidemic. In 2022, the company will release three-state 2.0 running shoes and professional basketball shoes AG2X, whose scientific and technological power will help the company expand its high-end product line and enhance its brand strength. We estimate that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will increase by 15.5%, 11.3%, 10.3%, respectively, and its net profit will be increased by 24.8%, 13.3%, 11.6%, corresponding to 12.7X/11.2X/10.1X, respectively, and the "overweight" rating will be given for the first time.
Risk hints: the epidemic repeatedly affects residents' consumption, intensified competition in the industry, and so on.