Event: the company issued an annual performance forecast for 2021. In 21 years, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 8.2% to 950 million yuan, an increase of 152% to 192% over the same period last year, and is expected to deduct a non-return net profit of 8.0% to 930 million yuan, an increase of 213% over the same period last year. Among them, Q4 is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.0-430 million yuan in the single quarter, down 13%, 39% from the same period last year, and an increase of 4.76-606 million yuan from the previous quarter.
Comments:
The refining and chemical industry has recovered, and the performance in the past 21 years has increased significantly compared with the same period last year: over the past 21 years, the global economy has continued to recover, downstream demand has obviously picked up, international oil prices have continuously reached new highs, and the prices of the company's main chemicals have generally shown an upward trend. the prosperity of the industry remains at a high level. Among them, the average price of polyethylene in 21 years was 8549 yuan / ton, + 18.5% compared with the same period last year; the average price of polypropylene was 8641 yuan / ton, + 10.4% year-on-year; the average price of diesel oil was 6543 yuan / ton, + 21.2%; the average price of urea was 2465 yuan / ton, which was + 43.6% over the same period last year; the average price of butadiene was 1022 yuan / ton, + 45.6% over the same period last year. In 2021, the company seized the favorable opportunity of the continuous rise of international oil prices driving the continuous rise of product prices in the downstream market, and maintained a good situation in production and operation through a series of measures such as optimizing product structure and opening up the export market of oil products. From July 15 to September 6, 21, the company carried out a routine parking maintenance of petrochemical and supporting utility production equipment once every three years, which had a certain impact on the company's performance, and the company's 21Q3 performance decreased month-on-month. Looking forward to 22 years, with the increase in the price and demand of the main products, and the completion of parking maintenance in 21 years, the sales volume of the main products in 22 years will increase compared with the same period last year, and the increase in volume and price is expected to lead to a rapid improvement in the company's performance in the past 22 years.
Continue to benefit from the advantage of integration, the group's refining and chemical integration project continues to advance: Huajin shares, as the only petrochemical plate listed company under China Arms Industry Corporation and one of the domestic super-large petrochemical integrated petrochemical enterprises, has obvious advantages in production scale and vertical integration. The integration project of Huajin Ami Refining and Chemical Industry, which is jointly owned by the Group, continues to move forward, including 1500 tons / year of oil refining, 1.5 million tons / year of ethylene and 1.3 million tons / year of p-xylene plant. At that time, Saudi Aramco will guarantee 70% of the crude oil supply. The project is expected to be completed in 2023, and the annual sales revenue after the project is put into production is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan. With the completion of the group's 1500 million tons / year new refining and chemical base project, Huajin shares is expected to participate in the project construction in due course, and the competitiveness of the company's petrochemical and fine chemical sectors will be significantly enhanced.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: taking into account the adverse impact of the company's 21Q3 parking maintenance, impairment on performance and the time it will take to climb the production capacity of the main products, we downgrade the company's profit forecast for 21-23 years. It is estimated that the company's net profit in 2021-2023 will be 8.84 billion yuan (down 41%) / 10.33 billion yuan (down 42%) / 11.65 billion yuan (down 42%) respectively. The corresponding EPS is 0.55 per share, 0.65 per share, and 0.73 yuan per share, respectively. We continue to be optimistic about the company's integration advantages and future development. In addition, with the continuous progress of the group's refining and chemical integration project, the company is expected to participate in a timely manner, so we maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: crude oil price fluctuation risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, new capacity release schedule is not as expected risk, main product price fluctuation risk.
