Digital medical insurance is the body, digital medical care and digital medicine are the two wings. The company formulates a strategic plan with "one body and two wings, two-wheel drive, digital empowerment and healthy ecology" as the core content, with digital medical insurance as the body, digital medical care and digital medicine as the two wings to build the basic disk. To create a closed loop of digital + medical + insurance + medicine, committed to becoming a digital medical insurance leader, digital medicine, digital medical builder, Internet health security service innovator Become a first-class medical and health care service company.
2021H1, the company's digital health insurance, digital medicine and digital medical business accounted for 66.2%, 19.24% and 14.39% respectively.
DRG, DIP accelerate national coverage, the incremental market is considerable. The reform of medical insurance payment methods has been accelerated, from the pilot to the whole country. In November 2021, National Healthcare Security Administration issued a notice on issuing a three-year action plan for the reform of DRG/DIP payment methods to accelerate the full coverage of the reform of DRG/DIP payment methods, and the reform of DRG/DIP payment methods began to speed up in an all-round way.
According to the data of the procurement network, the unit price of the DRG/DIP information system project in the secondary hospital is about 800000 yuan, the tertiary hospital is about 1.5 million yuan, the medical insurance bureau is about 4 million yuan, and the health care client is about 3 million. Based on the three-year construction period of 22-24 years, the incremental market brought by DRG/DIP construction will exceed 10 billion yuan.
The leader in the reform of the end-to-end payment mode of health insurance, the income growth is expected. Guoxin Health, as a leading digital health insurance company controlled by central enterprises, has a leading market share in its traditional medical insurance fund supervision business, such as health insurance fund intelligent audit service. At the same time, the company has been actively engaged in research and development in recent years, laying out the innovative business of DRG/DIP health insurance payment. In the "13th five-year Plan" pilot phase, the company's DRG business market share remains in the lead, but also rapidly expand the DIP market. The construction of DRG/DIP involves the Medical Insurance Bureau, the Health Commission and the hospital end. The company has obvious advantages in the health insurance side, and can help the hospital side adapt to the reform path more quickly. Taking the end of the Medical Insurance Bureau as the starting point, it is expected to help the company accelerate its entry into the hospital end business.
At the same time, medical institutions will be more inclined to use lean performance evaluation to drive cost control and high-quality development, DRG/DIP will promote extensive to fine in-depth development. The company takes the lead in laying out in this field, and it is expected that the three-year peak construction period of DRG/DIP will bring significant incremental income to the company.
Service and innovation business is a long-term focus. DRG, DIP follow-up service fees are expected to bring sustainable income to the company. After the completion of the construction of DRG and DIP projects, the relevant requirements, including dynamic adjustment of data and optimization of payment methods, will continue to be generated. Under the "construction + operation" mode, the company will still receive late operation and maintenance fees and other related service fees for a long time to provide continuous operation and maintenance services. In addition, commercial insurance direct compensation + PBM+ chronic disease management service is an innovative service model that can be explored in the future. The company's commercial insurance business continues to develop, direct compensation and quick compensation has made phased progress. The mode of medical insurance is different at home and abroad. at present, the combination mode of medical insurance and commercial insurance is not clear. The company has a continuous layout in the field of commercial insurance business, and is committed to opening up the channels of medical insurance and commercial insurance, and Medical big data drives the commercial insurance health insurance service and medical insurance fee control service to coordinate and promote the communication among patients, doctors, pharmacists and payers. Under the possible business opportunities such as the combination of medical insurance and commercial insurance in the future, the company has excellent channel and business capabilities.
Investment suggestion: with the promotion of the policy, the reform of DRG/DIP payment method has been accelerated to the whole country. In the next three years, the market is estimated to exceed 10 billion yuan. The company will expand its business and increase the value of value-added services in hospitals and enterprises. We estimate that the company's revenue in 21-23 years will be 2.56,4.46 and 594 million yuan respectively, an increase of 23.2%, 74.5% and 33.1% respectively over the same period last year. The net profit of homing is-1.85,0.24 and 46 million yuan respectively. Give the company a 22-year target market capitalization of 169. 5%. 6.9 billion yuan, corresponding to the target price of 18.71 yuan, covered for the first time, given a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the effect of the policy is not as good as expected; the market expansion is not as expected.
