The 2021Q4 performance forecast increased year-on-year, and the product line was developed to maintain the “buy” rating company announcing its 2021 performance forecast. It is expected to achieve net profit of 202-220 million yuan, YoY +68.2% ~ 83.23%. After deducting net profit from non-Gumo, it is estimated that net profit after deducting non-return to the mother will be 180.196 million yuan, YoY +61.8% ~ 76.2%.
Among them, net profit is expected to reach 0.24-042 million yuan in the single quarter of 2021/Q4, and net profit after deducting non-return to the mother is expected to reach 0.27-43 million yuan. Considering that 2021-Q4 cost increases and subsequent capacity expansion may bring cost pressure, we lowered our previous profit forecast. The company's revenue for 2021-2023 is estimated to be 27.3/32.9/40 billion yuan (previous value was 30.4/40.9/517 billion yuan), Guimo's net profit was 2.1/30/40 billion (previous value was 2.4/35/440 million yuan), EPS was 0.91/1.27/1.70 yuan (previous value was 1.02/1.48/1.87 yuan), corresponding to the current stock price PE is 20.5/14.7/10.9 times. The company's small-batch, medium-batch and high-volume products form a one-stop solution. The synergistic effect is remarkable and maintains the “buy” rating.
2021Q4 was running smoothly month-on-month, new server and vehicle PCB products continued to be imported, and the company's 2021Q4 orders were running smoothly. Prices of raw materials for superimposed copper coated plates fell, and gross margin continued to recover. Net interest rate declined seasonally due to sales expenses and management expenses charged at the end of the year. The company leverages Mu Tailai's technology integration effect, and the product line continues to advance, which is expected to drive up the average unit price. For example, in the server sector, the company has cut into 6-layer PCB supply, with dense lines and increased single-board area; in the automotive PCB field, safety and reliability have increased; in the field of industrial control energy, it has received recognition from leading security manufacturers and introduced 6-8 layer boards, and mass procurement is expected to have a scale effect.
As the company enters a new round of production capacity investment, Mu Tailai's integration is expected to boost the diversification of the company's net interest rate products, gradually forming a one-stop business model for R&D+small batch+medium batch+large batch+SMT mounting+finished product assembly. It lays out high-frequency/high-speed boards, any connected RFPC/HDI, IC test board, and may become one of the manufacturers with the most complete types of products, customers, and orders. Looking ahead to 2022, the company will enter a new round of production capacity investment. It is expected that Longnan Junya Precision will have a production capacity of 800,000 square meters and the Zhuhai plant with a production capacity of 1 million square meters. Automated manufacturing will improve efficiency and boost overall competitive strength.
Risk warning: above