The leading position of the ticketing side is solid, and the market has not yet returned to its pre-epidemic level. In 2021, Maoyan is expected to maintain more than 60% of the national online movie ticketing market, and the overall market share is expected to be more than 50%. Due to the domestic sporadic epidemic in 2021, the film box office has not yet returned to its pre-epidemic level. according to Maoyan Professional Edition, the national box office without service charge reached 42.863 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 130.31% over the same period last year, a decrease of 27.90% compared with 2019, and a corresponding service fee of 4.17 billion yuan.
The company is expected to achieve ticket sales revenue of 1.662 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 119.73% over the same period last year.
Promote investment with the advantages of publicity and development, and make a breakthrough in the content. In 2021, Maoyan participated in the production and promotion of 45 films, grossing 25.262 billion yuan, accounting for about 59% of the total box office in 21 years. Among them, the films that the company is deeply involved in, such as "Hello, Li Huanying", "Great Dad", "serious case of anger", "1921", "famous and famous" and so on have achieved eye-catching results. The company is expected to achieve 1.312 billion yuan in film and television entertainment revenue in 2021, an increase of 271.54% over the same period last year.
21H2 performance outlook. The company's 21H2 is expected to achieve revenue of 1.436 billion yuan, year-on-year + 23.51%, month-on-month-20.21%, including ticket sales of 649 million yuan (- 36%), film and television entertainment of 652 million yuan (- 1%), advertising service fees and other 135 million yuan (+ 7%). The estimated gross profit margin is 50.75%, year-on-year + 2.76pct, month-on-month-7.34pct. Considering the delay of film and television related projects caused by the epidemic, based on the prudent principle, it is estimated that the impairment of financial and other assets is 208 million yuan, the net profit of 21H2 is-1 million yuan, and the adjusted net profit is 114 million yuan.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 3.236 million yuan, with an adjusted net profit of 5.98 billion yuan, 10.17 billion yuan, and the PE corresponding to the closing price on January 25, 2022 will be 16.02 X, 9.42 X, 8.03 X. It is worth noting that the strategic cooperation between the company and Tencent and Meituan will expire in September 2022, and the cooperation agreement and cost of the follow-up traffic entrance have not yet been determined. We value the company at 15 times PE in 2022, with a fair value of HK $16.50 per share and maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk tips. The epidemic situation is repeated; the box office is lower than expected; the follow-up strategic cooperation agreement with Tencent and Meituan is uncertain; the risk of film and television project production; industry supervision intensified.