Global macro

• Us stock index futures fell collectively before the session.

  

• Big bears in US stocks: Fed tightening accelerates, S & P 500 may fall 20% in the first half of the year

Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson, Wall Street's most pessimistic analyst, gave a more pessimistic forecast this week: although this year's most expensive stocks have been revised down, the median stock (median stock) is still high and stock market valuations will fall further. In this forecast, Wilson also gave almost the lowest stock market valuation on Wall Street: "specifically, our basic assumption for the S & P 500 year-end target is 4400, with a median forecast of about 4800-4900. The target assumes a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times earnings by the end of 2022 (currently about 21 times) and 12-month earnings of $245 per share. Our earnings per share forecast is basically in line with Wall Street, while the target price-to-earnings ratio is about 10% lower. If the policy is more aggressive, the S & P 500 may even revise down 10-20% in the first half of this year.

• The Secretary of Energy of the United States is also deeply involved in stock speculation. The amount of money involved in the case reached 240000 yuan, and all nine transactions were disclosed overdue.

According to documents disclosed by the Federal Government Ethics Office, Energy Secretary Glenhom violated at least nine deals last year in violation of the 2012 Act banning the use of Congressional experience Trading. In all, Glenhom made nine deals and sold shares worth up to $240000 (1.52 million yuan), none of which was disclosed during the 45-day window after completion, according to the documents.

• Us inflation is still expected to return to 2% by the end of the year? Yellen: confidence in Fed action

"I expect US inflation-12 months of year-on-year change-to remain above 2 per cent for most of this year," Yellen said in an interview with local media on Thursday. However, if we succeed in bringing the epidemic under control, I expect inflation to fall in the middle of the year and is expected to return to the normal level of about 2% by the end of the year. Yellen said it was a "shared responsibility" of the Biden administration and the Fed to deal with inflation, and she was confident that the Fed would take appropriate action.

• Yields on 10-year Treasuries are off two-year highs! Industry institutions: us debt may be oversold in the short term

Us bond yields have risen sharply since the start of the year as investors keep betting that monetary policy will be tightened more aggressively to fend off the prospect of rising inflation. However, after the recent rise in benchmark 10-year US bond yields above 1.70 per cent, 1.80 per cent and even above 1.90 per cent at one point, some in the industry are now beginning to think that there may be a round of short-term rest and recuperation. Tom Di Galoma, managing director of Seaport Global Holdings, said, "the U. S. bond market is a little oversold. Yields are likely to fall to a range of 1.70 per cent and 1.75 per cent. "

• EU to introduce "Chip Act" to increase production capacity

European Commission President von Delaine announced at the 2022 World Economic Forum videoconference on the 20th that the EU "Chip Act" will be introduced in February, which aims to increase EU chip production capacity from 10% of the world's current to 20% by 2030. The Chip Act will help the EU improve its chip R & D and innovation capabilities, pave the way for public support for EU-pioneered production facilities, enhance its ability to respond to shortages and crises, and support small and innovative companies. Mr von der Lane says the EU aims to produce 20 per cent of the world's chips by 2030. By then, global demand for chips will double, which means that the EU's chip capacity should quadruple its existing capacity.

Hot news

• Nai Frisbee fell nearly 20% in front of it, and its first-quarter performance outlook was much lower than expected.

After Thursday's trading in Eastern time, the streaming media giant$Netflix Inc (NFLX.US) $The fourth quarter of 2021 results were released. Data show that Netflix Inc Q4 revenue of $7.71 billion, the number of net paid users of streaming media increased by 8.28 million, in line with market expectations, but the company's performance outlook for the first quarter of 2022 was significantly lower than market expectations. As of press time, the front of Nai Frisbee fell nearly 20%.

• At one point before the day, Peloton rose by more than 9%. The CEO refuted the rumor that suspending the production of fitness products was false news.

On Thursday, internal documents obtained by the media showed$Peloton Interactive (PTON.US) $It is temporarily halting production of its online fitness bikes and treadmills because of reduced consumer demand and the company wants to rein in costs. After the news, Peloton shares plummeted and triggered a circuit breaker for the second time, and the stock closed down nearly 24%.

CEO John Foley responded that the information obtained by the media was incomplete and did not reflect Peloton's strategy. "there are rumors that we will stop the production of all bicycles and treadmills, which is not true. He added: "the production of online fitness products will continue. "

• Apple Inc fell slightly before the session, or he may be targeted by the new antitrust law.

On January 20th, the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee approved two new antitrust bills, the AOL Innovation and Choice Act and the Open Application Market Act, which target platform companies with a market capitalization of more than $550 billion. Although there is still a long legislative process, the probability of landing the bill has increased. If the bill is finally passed, tech giants will be banned from giving themselves an extra advantage on their own platforms. As of the press release$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $It was down 0.63% before trading.

• Wells Fargo & Co: Apple Inc's performance in the first fiscal quarter is worth looking forward to, raising the target price to US $205,

Wells Fargo & Co analyst Aaron Rakers maintains$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $The "overweight" rating was raised from $165 to $205. Apple Inc will announce his financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2022 after US stocks opened on January 27, EST. Analysts expect revenue of $117.8 billion and earnings per share of $1.85, up from previous expectations of $116.4 billion and $1.83. Analysts said the market would focus on the positive content that could be shown in the results, including improving supply chains, continued strong end-user demand, product portfolios, and growth in services and subscriptions. Analysts believe Apple Inc will generate revenue by expanding the user base of products and services such as AR/VR and cars, rather than building a business in a short period of time, which is why the stock is worth investing in.

• The latest position exposure of asset management giant BG! Reduce holdings by 22% Tesla, Inc. and 41% BABA

British century-old asset management giant BAILLIE GIFFORD released 13F documents by the end of 2021, revealing its layout in US stocks. Vaccine giant$Moderna Inc (MRNA.US) $It is the largest position in BG, with a market capitalization of about $11.6 billion, or 8.5 per cent of the portfolio, with a small increase of 8 per cent in the fourth quarter. BG long-term investment of more than 10 years$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $It was reduced by 22% in Q4, ranking the second largest position, with a market capitalization of US $11.4 billion, similar to Moderna Inc. In terms of the operation of US-listed stocks, according to the 13F document, BG once again substantially reduced its holdings of 4096750 shares.$BABA (BABA.US) $The holdings were reduced by 41%. From the second quarter of 2021 to the end of the year, Baiji reduced its position in BABA by 77.97%.

• Alphabet Inc-CL C's new generation of AR shows details: cool techs blessings such as iris tracking and external computing, which will be listed as soon as 2024.

According to media reports$Alphabet Inc-CL C-A (GOOGL.US) $The next generation of AR head display devices, codenamed "Project Iris", are being developed and are still in the early stages of development, and the product is expected to be available as soon as 2024. Under the name "Iris", Alphabet Inc-CL C also established a machine learning model Media Pipe Iris, which can track iris, pupil and eye contours in real time through a single RGB camera without special hardware, and determine the measurement distance between the object and the camera with a relative error of less than 10%.

• Tesla, Inc. Model Q listed in 2023? People familiar with the matter: just for speculation.

According to the media, it has been learned from people familiar with the matter, "about$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $At present, the news of Model Q is all unfounded speculation. It was reported yesterday that Tesla, Inc. 's new model Model Q, which sells for $24990 (about 160000 yuan), will be officially launched in 2023 and will be equipped with BYD blade batteries.

• Intel Corp promised to invest 20 billion US dollars to build at least two semiconductor manufacturing plants.

According to the media$Intel Corp (INTC.US) $Pledged $20 billion to build a large manufacturing base on the outskirts of Columbus, New Albany, Ohio. Intel Corp will build at least two semiconductor manufacturing plants here and employ at least 3000 people here. Construction of the plant will begin this year and is expected to be operational in 2025.

• Goldman Sachs Group: Yunafei has a neutral rating, with a target price of US $580
  

Goldman Sachs Group analyst Eric Sheridan said that in the fourth quarter,$Netflix Inc (NFLX.US) $The trajectory of user growth and profit margins is "mixed", the market showed a negative reaction to Netflix Inc's financial report. Analysts point out that the stock has performed poorly over the past 18 months and that the market remains controversial about how the company would normally grow after the outbreak.

• Piper Sandler: downgraded AMD to "neutral" from "overweight" and lowered its target price from $140to $130.

Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar will$Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD.US) $Was downgraded from overweight to neutral, and the target price was lowered from $140 to $130. The analyst was cautious about the broader auto industry, saying that order growth and price increases "could be problematic" as supply normalizes in the second half of 2022. Kumar told investors in a research report that once supply and demand are flat, the growth rate of orders may be lower than in the past few years. His rating of AMD reflects concerns about a slowdown in the PC market during 2022, "earnings and growth headwinds" from the completion of the XLNX.O deal, and "overall market dynamics around high-multiple, high-growth technology stocks". As a result, he feels that downside risks outweigh upside risks at this point in time.

Focus on China-listed stocks

• Popular Chinese stocks fluctuated before trading, with BABA down nearly 1% and Trip.com up more than 2%.

• DiDi Global Inc. fell more than 1% before trading.

A few days ago, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, together with the Ministry of Transport, the General Administration of Market Supervision and the all-China Federation of Trade unions, once again spoke to Meituan, ele.me, and the all-China Federation of Trade unions on safeguarding the labor security rights and interests of workers in the new form of employment.$DiDi Global Inc. (DIDI.US) $, Cao Cao, Dada, flash delivery, cargo lesbians,$Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM.US) $, home group,$BABA (BABA.US) $, Tencent and other 11 head platform enterprises jointly carry out administrative guidance.

• Tencent Music made personnel and organizational adjustments, involving QQ Music and the whole people singing.

At noon yesterday$Tencent Music (TME.US) $Entertainment Group issued an announcement No. 3 to adjust the organizational structure of QQ Music's business line and Tencent Music Infrastructure Department, and promote and appoint some managers at the same time. An internal director of Tencent Music told the Interface News that at the beginning of this month, most of the business cadres had been informed of the details of the adjustment, but the final appointment and removal announcement was announced on the same day of the annual meeting of QQ Music's business line.

• JD.com rose more than 1% before trading, and his company applied for the trademark of Star Universe.

According to the heavenly eye, recently$JD.com (JD.US) $Xingyu e-sports (Beijing) Culture Communication Co., Ltd. has applied for registration of several "Star Universe" trademarks. The international classification includes convenience food, education and entertainment, etc., and the trademark status is currently under application. In addition, Li Jiaqi and cooperative JD.com merchants launched the Spring Festival gift-giving activity, which means that the event will guide JD.com merchants.

• NIO Inc. 's 800th power station was officially launched at Ikea in Hangzhou.

Today$NIO Inc. (NIO.US) $The 800th power station was officially launched at Ikea in Hangzhou. In the past 33 days, 100 new power stations have been added, and an average of 3 have been put online every day. As of the 21st, NIO Inc. has arranged 800 exchange stations, 637 overcharging stations and 645 destination charging stations, and has connected 460000 + third-party charging piles across the country. In 2022, the company will continue to layout and complete the construction goal of 1300 + power station, which will bring more convenient power exchange experience for more users.

Pre-market turnover of US stocks TOP20

Reminder of American Macro Calendar

There is no major macro data release in the United States today.

Central bank and government trends

20:30 speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank

00:30 speech by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen