This report is read as follows:
There will be some debt repayment pressure in the first half of 2022, but the company's asset disposal and financing will be dealt with in advance, and it is expected to smoothly tide over the difficult period of leverage reduction. Considering the final thinking, the company's operation and products lead the industry, and the leftovers are expected to continue to take the lead.
Summary:
There is a phenomenon of discounted sales in the process of reducing leverage, and the decline of KE Holdings Inc. 's stock price in 2022 brings a large investment loss, and the profit forecast for 2021-2023 net profit is 27 billion, 26.7 billion, 26.3 billion (originally 407,475,54.5 billion yuan). The market is worried that there is a certain liquidity risk in the company's high leverage. We believe that with the gradual implementation of the support policy, the company's asset quality can better support the maturing liabilities in the first half of 2022. With the final thinking, the company is ahead in operation and product strength, and is expected to usher in a valuation switch and maintain its overweight rating through a difficult period. The current price corresponds to 1.6x PE in 2021.
A large scale of debt repayment will be ushered in in the first half of 2022, and policy warming is expected to deal with it calmly. According to wind statistics, bonds that entered the redemption period in the first half of 2022 include 16 Fundi 01, 20 Fuchuang 01, 16 Fuchuang 05, Sunac China 7.25% N20220614 and so on, about 10 billion yuan and 600 million US dollars. In terms of asset disposal and financing since October 2021, 1) US $530 million was obtained from the sale of 2671 million shell ADS; 2) the placing and subscription shares raised US $653 million and US $580 million; and 3) Sun Hongbin, the controlling shareholder, provided an interest-free loan of US $450 million. In addition, the company maintained a normal sales pace, with sales of 47.8 billion in December, 101.1 billion in unrestricted currency and 22.1 billion in restricted currency in mid-2021.
The current financing policy has warmed up: 1) M & A loans are relaxed, the quality of the company's land reserves is higher, and there is more room for transferring equity to withdraw funds; 2) the release of mortgage loans is speeded up and the payback speed of the company's pre-sales is accelerated; 3) the withdrawal of pre-sale funds in some cities has been loosened to a certain extent. The company has a large scale of sales and land reserves, and the scale of funds brought about by the relaxation of marginal policy is still considerable, and it is expected that there is some room to cope with the peak of debt maturity, but the real end of the stress period comes from the reopening of open market financing.
Through the cold winter, from the final point of view is expected to usher in the valuation switch opportunity. Although the company has sold at a certain discount in the process of reducing leverage in the past two years, gross profit margin is expected to decline significantly in 2021, and the fall in KE Holdings Inc. 's share price has also brought losses on the statement. But for the value of the company, we should adopt the final thinking, with the policy margin warmer, the company will pass the difficult period, and excellent product power and efficient operation efficiency make the company more competitive advantage. In "reversing the destruction of value and reshaping the forward valuation", we explain that the logic of the current real estate stock valuation repair does not lie in the growth of performance, but in the lengthening of the operating hypothesis cycle. Sunac will gradually prove that it has the ability to switch valuations. or even stay ahead.
Risk hint: the financing side has not improved, and sales have fallen sharply.