At the financial data press conference in 2021, the central bank proposed "sufficient force", "accurate force" and "force from the front". It said that monetary policy will "be more proactive", "focus on the front", "guide financial institutions to increase support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation, and green development, and stabilize the macro-economic market. To create a suitable monetary and financial environment for promoting high-quality economic development. "

In January 2022, the seven-day reverse repo rate and the one-year MLF rate were both cut by 10bp, followed by a reduction in LPR.

Director Sun Guofeng said on January 18, 2022 that "LPR will timely and fully reflect the changes in market interest rates and guide corporate lending rates down". The LPR downgrade is in line with market expectations, and both LPR downgrades are obviously a positive signal of broad credit.

Among them, 1-year LPR down-regulated 10 bp,5-year LPR down-regulated 5bp, in line with the previous rule. After the two MLF cuts in February and April 2020, the one-year LPR interest rate cut was the same as that of the MLF, and the five-year LPR interest rate cut was half of the MLF reduction.

Looking back, 10 billion private equity investors said that monetary policy will maintain a loose tone for some time to protect economic growth, and domestic liquidity will remain ample.

At the end of 2021, China's macro leverage ratio is 7.7 percentage points lower than that at the end of 2020, domestic inflation as a whole remains moderate, and the Federal Reserve has not yet started to raise interest rates, all of which provide space for China's monetary policy easing.

The determination of "steady growth" is great, and structural investment opportunities need to be tapped under the double-width policy.

Generally speakingStarstone Investment believes thatKeeping liquidity loose is good for A shares.

Historically, in 2012, 2015 and 2019, under the macro environment of downward pressure on the economy, increasing liquidity and starting to ease, the spring market of these years also preferred. As doubts about the effectiveness of the "steady growth" policy fade in 2022, investor sentiment will be repaired and the market is expected to end volatility and improve gradually.

Although the reduction in interest rates is theoretically good for growth stocks, due to the high valuation of some growth sectors and obvious differences in the prosperity of different links in the industrial chain, the overall growth style may not be flexible to this interest rate cut.

Look backThe determination of domestic policy to "stabilize growth" is great."steady growth" may be the main line of investment in the near future.It will rely on both fiscal and monetary policy.

The Central Economic Conference added the statement that "fiscal policy and monetary policy should be coordinated and linked, and cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical macro-control policies should be organically combined." the follow-up fiscal policy and monetary policy will focus on stabilizing the macro-economic market.

In terms of fiscal policy, the effect of infrastructure investment policy will gradually appear.From November to December, against the background of a year-on-year increase in government bonds, fiscal deposits fell more year-on-year, indicating that fiscal spending is increasing.

In early 2022, Sichuan, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places held major project launching ceremonies or mobilization meetings for major project construction. The investment direction of major projects shows that the traditional infrastructure construction represented by rail transit and energy and water conservancy still occupies an important position. At the same time, new energy, new materials, intelligent manufacturing, education, environmental protection, public health and other areas are also key layout directions, and new and old investment is expected to work together.

With the implementation of the policy, the domestic economy is expected to improve marginally.In fact, positive changes have begun to occur in the economy since the fourth quarter of 2021. Judging from the two-year compound growth rate, GDP grew by 5.2% in the fourth quarter, up 0.3% from the third quarter. As a whole, the supply shock gradually disappeared and demand began to improve.

It is expected that with the economic recovery, the difference between industry prosperity will narrow, funds may begin to pay attention to the reasonableness of valuation, undervalued sectors will also benefit.

Switch between high and low valuations at the beginning of the year, paying attention to the plates with rising prosperity and reasonable valuation.

From a medium-and long-term point of view, this year's structural market, the need for more in-depth research to explore opportunities, some economic recovery and reasonable valuation of the segment may be worth paying attention to.

Take the consumer sector as an example, as the effect of the policy of stabilizing growth shows, the domestic economy will improve.

The superimposed epidemic situation and epidemic prevention and control will eventually evolve in the direction of having the least impact on the economy and consumption, the prosperity of the consumer industry with post-economic periodicity may improve quarter by quarter, and consumer demand will continue to converge to the normal level before the epidemic.

However, the new investment in some industries in the past 10 years is limited, the epidemic has led to the clearing of production capacity, the flexibility of the supply side is limited, and the logic of supply clearing may gradually be reflected in the consumer industry. At the same time, PPI-CPI scissors convergence, CPI to maintain a moderate rise, the profit pattern will gradually benefit the downstream consumer industry.

From the valuation side, while the high valuation sector keeps rising in 2021, the relative valuation of some consumer sectors is in a reasonable space. When the stock market returns to the mean in 2022, the consumer sector with reasonable valuations is more likely to rise.