Focus Today

1. CITIC: there is still a window and necessity for interest rate cuts in the next six months, and it is expected that there may be 1 or 2 interest rate cuts in the future.

2. Morgan Stanley: Brent crude oil is expected to reach US $100 by the third quarter.

3. Daiwa: the worst is over, and we are optimistic about Longfor Group, China Resources Land and Xuhui holding Group, which have strong financial ability.

4. Nomura: generally optimistic about Chinese financial stocks, preferred stocks such as CITIC and Ping An Insurance

5. Motors: bank of Hong Kong preferred BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Limited and Hang Seng Bank, giving them a "overweight" rating.

6. CICC: JD Health and Smoore International Holdings Limited are expected to be included in the Hang Seng Index.

7. Credit Suisse: gambling stocks attract risk and return, and the target price is raised across the board.

8. Citic: maintain Tencent's "buy" rating, lowering the target price by 9.6% to HK $554

9. CICC: maintain China Overseas Land & Investment's "outperform industry" rating with a target price of HK $30.68

10. Macquarie: Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited is the first choice for beer stocks, and the target price rises to HK $30.

11. Daiwa: maintain the 99% "buy" rating and lower the target price to HK $24

Credit Suisse: maintain WH Group Limited's "outperform" rating, raising the target price to HK $8.20

13. Credit Suisse: maintain China Oilfield Service's "outperform" rating and raise its target price to HK $9

Selected viewpoints of research and newspaper

I. Macro-market

1. CITIC: there is still a window and necessity for interest rate cuts in the next six months, and it is expected that there may be 1 or 2 interest rate cuts in the future.

CITIC Mingming issued a report that there have been at least two interest rate cuts in each round of monetary easing since 2008, with an interval of 1-3 months after the start of the interest rate reduction cycle. There is still a window and necessity for interest rate cuts in the next six months, and it is expected that there may be 1 or 2 interest rate cuts in the next six months, possibly in March or June. In addition, reserve requirement cuts and structured monetary policy instruments are also expected to continue to be launched.

2. Morgan Stanley: Brent crude oil is expected to reach US $100 by the third quarter.

Morgan Stanley expects Brent crude to reach $100 a barrel later this year. Morgan Stanley pointed out that after a sharp drop in crude oil stocks last year, it is expected to decline further by the end of this year. Spare capacity will be reduced from the current 3.4 million b / d to 2 million b / d. As green action advances, investment in increasing oil production is expected to shrink by 30% by the end of the decade. Given the resilience of the oil market, Morgan Stanley adjusted his oil price forecast, which could trigger a drop in demand, from $90 to $100 a barrel.

II. Industry plate

3. Daiwa: it is expected that the worst period of the inner room is over, so we are optimistic about those with strong financial ability.$Longfor Group (00960.HK) $、$China Resources Land (01109.HK) $和$Xuhui Holdings Group (00884.HK) $

Daiwa issued a report that the market rumors that the authorities intend to make it easier for internal housing developers to obtain pre-sale funds in escrow accounts to solve the serious financial difficulties of the industry. The bank believes that if the news is true, the relaxation of pre-sale fund management will have a positive impact on the cash flow and solvency of many mainland developers, and the bank believes that the worst of the inner housing credit policy is over. However, the bank also believes that the industry is not completely out of trouble, maintaining a "neutral" position on inner housing, and continues to be optimistic about financially strong internal housing stocks, including Dragon Lake, China Resources Land and Xuhui, which are all rated as "buy" investments. the target prices are HK $55.9, HK $44 and HK $7.80 respectively.

4. Nomura: overall optimistic about Chinese financial stocks, first choice$CITIC (06030.HK) $、$Ping An Insurance (02318.HK) $Equal shares

Nomura published a research report pointing out that the overall bullish on Chinese financial stocks, the first choice is CITIC, Ping an, property Insurance, China Merchants Bank and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, all rated as "buy". The bank believes that the above shares have benefited from supply-side reforms and market leadership, wealth management business has structural growth opportunities, and good corporate regulation. Among them, China Merchants Bank and CITIC account for the highest share of wealth management / asset management income in the industry, at 12 per cent and 15 per cent respectively. The HKEx and Ping an are seen as beneficiaries of increasing the transfer of household assets to long-term financial assets, including stock and annuity insurance.

5. Motors: the first choice for the Bank of Hong Kong.$BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Limited (02388.HK) $及$Hang Seng Bank (00011.HK) $And give a rating of "increasing holdings"

JPMorgan Chase & Co issued a report pointing out that although the operating performance was weaker than expected, Hong Kong bank stocks still outperformed the Hang Seng Index by 13 per cent last year and by 7 per cent so far this year. Looking ahead to this year, the bank expects the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and regulatory changes to bring back more US-listed Chinese stocks, which will bring an upside to the income of Hong Kong bank stocks. Although last year's results are still lacklustre, average earnings growth in the industry is expected to accelerate from 15 per cent this year to 20 per cent next year, the bank added. Among the Bank of Hong Kong, the preferred choice for the Motors industry is BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Limited and Hang Seng Bank, both of which are rated as "overweight". The target price of BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Limited has increased from HK $33 to HK $36 and that of Hang Seng from HK $172to HK $182m. In addition, Motors resumed its "neutral" rating to the Bank of East Asia, with a target price of HK $14.

6. CICC:$JD Health (06618.HK) $和$Smoore International Holdings Limited (06969.HK) $Are expected to be included in the Hang Seng Index.

According to a report released by CICC, the Hang Seng Index will release the results of its semi-annual review after trading on February 18, estimating that JD Health, Smoore International Holdings Limited and NONGFU SPRING CO., LTD. are likely to be included as potential candidates. Other companies that are likely to be included in the Hang Seng Index include Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group, China Feihe Limited, Zhongsheng Group, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation and China Gas. It is expected that the pace of capacity expansion may be more significant than previous times, and the coverage of the industry will be expanded accordingly, and the adjustment results will be formally implemented on March 7. XPeng Inc., Orient Overseas, Poly Xiexin Energy, minimally invasive Robot, Cloud Music and other 15 stocks are expected to meet the criteria for inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

7. Credit Suisse: gambling stocks attract risk and return, and the target price is raised across the board.

Credit Suisse issued a report saying that the worst for Macau's gaming industry may be over and that risks and returns are attractive. The bank raised the target price of Macau gaming stocks across the board. The bank is bullish on shares with more non-gaming businesses, low debt, low valuations and shares that can best increase gross margins at the request of new intermediaries, with Sands China first, SJM second and MGM China third. The bank has outperformed market ratings on Sands China, SJM, Wynn Macau, Galaxy Entertainment and MGM China. The bank raised its target price for Sands China from HK $31 to HK $37, Silver Entertainment from HK $62 to HK $64.2, SJM from HK $9.4 to HK $10, and MGM China target price from HK $8.5 to HK $10.3.

III. Individual stocks

CITIC: maintain$Tencent (00700.HK) $"Buy" rating, target price lowered by 9.6% to HK $554

CITIC released a research report that maintained Tencent's "buy" rating, lowered its target price by 9.6% from HK $613 to HK $554, and adjusted its 2021-23 Non-IFRS net profit forecast to 1,241.13 / 171.188 billion yuan. Although short-term performance is under pre-pressure, the core business still maintains a strong competitive advantage, while actively increasing investment in ESG, cloud business and innovative content to maintain long-term sustainable development. Although it still faces the impact of regulatory policies such as games, data security and antitrust, and sustained investment in key areas such as international games, video numbers, cloud and enterprise software will lead to pressure on short-term profit growth, however, the medium-and long-term dimensions are expected to form stronger competitiveness in the above areas, and there is still room for sustainable upside.

9. CICC: maintenance$China Overseas Land & Investment (00688.HK) $"outperform industry" rating with a target price of HK $30.68

CICC released a research report that maintained China Overseas Land & Investment's outperformance industry rating, with a target price of HK $30.68, corresponding to 6.7 times 2022 PE and 33 per cent upside. The bank adjusted the company's settlement pace forecast and slightly revised down the 2021 / 22 core net profit forecast of 5% to 397 / 42.5 billion yuan, introducing the 2023 core net profit forecast of 45.5 billion yuan, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 4.5%. The current share price is trading at 5.1 PE in 2022 / 23.

10. Macquarie: the first choice for beer stocks$Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited (01876.HK) $The target price rose to HK $30

Macquarie published a research report pointing out that Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited had little contact with the outbreak areas in China, and benefited from South Korea's relaxation of social distance restrictions. It is believed that the stock outperformed other Chinese listed beer companies. The company's revenue grew by 9.6% in the fourth quarter of last year, and standardized EBITDA profits increased by 8.4%, which outperformed the industry. The bank raised Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited's standardized EBITDA profit growth forecast for 2021-2023 by 1.6 per cent, 0.9 per cent and 0.9 per cent, respectively, and raised its target price slightly from HK $29.6 to HK $30, reiterating its "outperform" rating and referring to the stock as the preferred stock in the beer sector.

11. Daiwa: maintenance$99 (09922.HK) $"Buy" rating, lower target price to HK $24

Daiwa issued a report saying that market estimates of last year's performance may have underestimated the impact of deleveraging, and that due to the persistence of the pandemic, the prospects for the company's performance recovery this year are uncertain, but that its fundamentals remain unchanged for a long time. The bank lowered the bid price of 99 items from HK $31.5 to HK $24, maintaining its "buy" rating. Daiwa expects its net profit to grow 1.9 times year-on-year last year, and the market is more optimistic about its forecast (an increase of about 2.5 times). The bank cut its earnings per share for 2021-23 by 21 per cent to 30 per cent, reflecting the greater impact of deleveraging amid a slower-than-expected recovery, the opening of new points of sale and the longer time it takes for new points of sale to improve. The bank predicts that revenue and net profit will grow by about 41% and 64% respectively this year.

Credit Suisse: maintain$WH Group Limited (00288.HK) $Rated as "outperform the market", the target price rises to HK $8.2

According to a report released by Credit Suisse, it is believed that the unit profit of WH Group Limited (0288.HK) US packaged meat reached a new high in the fourth quarter of last year, mainly due to a successful price increase in the middle of the year, while sales are expected to decline slightly at a young age due to a high base. It is estimated that the Group's operating profit on packaged meat for the whole of last year can at least return to the 2019 level. Credit Suisse raised its Wanzhou target price from HK $7.8 to HK $8.2, equivalent to 11 times forecast earnings this year and maintained its "outperform" rating, but cut its earnings forecast for last year by 10 per cent to reflect potential litigation costs in the fourth quarter of last year.

13. Credit Suisse: maintain$China Oilfield Service (02883.HK) $"outperform the market" rating, raise the target price to HK $9

Credit Suisse reported that oil prices have risen 30 per cent since the end of November and are rapidly approaching $90 a barrel, the highest level since 2014. The bank expects COSL's operating environment to improve this year, which will drive earnings growth this year and strongly support the upward trend of its share price, rather than just tracking oil prices. On the other hand, the outlook for the domestic market has stabilized under CNOOC's capital expenditure budget of RMB 90 billion-100 billion this year, but Credit Suisse believes that COSL's investment theme this year will be the recovery of overseas markets. Credit Suisse raised its target price for COSL shares from HK $8 to HK $9, keeping its rating "outperforming the market".