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奈飞盘后暴跌20%!新增付费用户数Q1指引大幅低于预期

Netflix plummeted 20% after the market! The Q1 guidelines for the number of new paying users fell far short of expectations

華爾街見聞 ·  Jan 21, 2022 07:09

Source: Wall Street

The original title: "the first game of the US tech giant's earnings season is disadvantageous: Nai Frisbee stock avalanche!" "

Netflix Inc's fourth-quarter EPS of $1.33 exceeded analysts' expectations of $0.81; fourth-quarter revenue was $7.71 billion, in line with analysts' expectations; however, it expects the number of streaming fees to increase by 2.5 million in the first quarter, far below analysts' expectations of an increase of 6.26 million. Netflix Inc's after-hours decline widened to 20 per cent from 4.77 per cent.

Netflix Inc Netflix (NFLX), the largest video streaming giant in the United States and the world, announced its results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021 after US stocks opened on Thursday, Jan. 20, et., although earnings per share exceeded expectations and fourth-quarter revenue of $7.71 billion was also in line with expectations, the number of households paid for streaming media was expected to increase by 2.5 million in the first quarter, much lower than the 6.26 million increase expected by analysts. Netflix Inc's after-hours decline widened from 4.77 per cent to 20 per cent.

Specifically:

  • EPS was $1.33 in the fourth quarter, and analysts expect it to be $0.81, up 16% from a year earlier.

  • Fourth-quarter revenue was $7.71 billion, in line with analysts' expectations; operating margin was 8 per cent, down 6 per cent from the same period last year.

  • The number of paid net users of streaming media increased by 8.28 million in the fourth quarter, and analysts expect an increase of 8.13 million.

  • The number of households paid for streaming reached 221.8 million in the fourth quarter, with analysts expecting 221.6 million.

At the same time, Netflix Inc also released his performance guidance for the first quarter of 2022, including:

  • EPS is expected to be $2.86 in the first quarter, while analysts expect it to be $3.37.

  • First-quarter revenue is expected to be $7.9 billion, while analysts expect $8.12 billion.

  • The number of paid households for streaming media is expected to increase by 2.5 million in the first quarter, and analysts expect an increase of 6.26 million.

  • Currently, the full-year operating profit margin target is set at 19% Murray 20%.

The growth rate of streaming media business is weak, and Q1 expects the growth of paying users to be less than half that of analysts' estimates.

Earlier, Netflix Inc gave a guideline for an increase of 8.5 million subscribers in the fourth quarter, and a net increase of 8.5 million users will bring the company back to the quarterly growth range before COVID-19 's epidemic, about 8 million to 8.8 million.

The number of paid net users of streaming media increased by 8.28 million in the fourth quarter, lower than previously expected, according to financial data released today. The 2.5 million increase in the number of paid streaming users in the first quarter is expected to be well below analysts' expectations of 6.26 million.

Neither "anaemic" nor "slowing" growth seems to be enough to sum up Netflix Inc's disappointing performance expectations for the next quarter. According to the financial report, the total net increment of Netflix Inc's payment will be 18 million in 2021 and 37 million in 2020:

  • The UCAN region of the United States and Canada added 1.2 million paying members in the fourth quarter of 2021 (compared with 900000 last year), making it the strongest growth quarter in the region.

  • More than 90% of the net increase in payments in 2021 will come from abroad.

  • The number of paid members in the Asia-Pacific region increased by 2.6 million in 2021 (compared with 2 million in the same period last year), with strong growth in Japan and India.

  • The largest contributor to the net increase in payments in the fourth quarter was 3.5 million in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (compared with 4.5 million in the same period last year).

At present, the fiercest competition for users is the American market. According to Leichtman Research, a research firm, 78 per cent of American households subscribe to streaming services. In addition, according to Deloitte Deloitte, the turnover rate in the United States (that is, the rate of people giving up or subscribing to services) is relatively high at 35% on average.

Netflix Inc said increased competition from other companies was one reason for the slowdown, although it had said in the past that companies such as Apple Inc and Walt Disney Company would not have a material impact on growth.

When it comes to their entertainment time, consumers always have a lot of choices-the competition will only intensify as entertainment companies around the world develop their own streaming products.

While this additional competition may have some impact on our marginal growth, we continue to grow in every country where these new streaming alternatives are launched.

The growth rate of paying users is not good, so we can raise the price to collect.

Netflix Inc's share price has been under pressure since it hit an all-time high on Nov. 11. Investors worry that increasingly fierce competition and low user growth will hurt their profit margins. In response to sluggish growth after strong user growth during the outbreak, the company last week raised the price of monthly subscription packages in North America (the United States and Canada), which account for 44 percent of total revenue.

In January, Netflix Inc's website showed that basic account fees in the United States rose from $8.99 to $9.99 per month, standard account fees rose from $13.99 to $15.49 per month, and advanced account fees rose from $17.99 to $19.99 per month. The standard account fee in Canada rose from C $14.99 to C $16.49, the premium account fee increased by C $2 to C $20.99, and the basic account fee remained unchanged at C $9.99.

Netflix Inc also mentioned in the financial report that he reduced the pricing of his plan in India in December because the uniqueness of the Indian market led to very low pricing for pay TV.

We believe that these new prices will make Netflix more acceptable to more people, thus enhancing our sense of value. Our goal is to maximize long-term revenue in each market.

Although the price increase is something consumers do not want to see, at least Wall Street applauded, and Netflix Inc's share price rose briefly at the time of the price increase.

The strongest content supply season in history, with record original and exclusive content online

According to Wedbush Securities, Netflix Inc released 157 films, new episodes and new seasons of existing episodes in the current season. This is an increase of 20% over the number of original content released in the same period last year.

Netflix Inc launched "Red Notice" and "Don't Look Up" in the fourth quarter, which received the most views in the platform's history. But for Netflix Inc, giving audiences what they want may not be enough to attract millions of new users.

According to Netflix Inc's financial report, he released a new season of return programs in the fourth quarter, such as "the Wizard" (484 million hours), "you" (468 million hours), "Emily in Paris" (468 million hours) and so on. Among them, "Squid Game", which was released in the third quarter, was a great success in the fourth quarter, with a total of 1.65 billion hours of viewing in the first four weeks of its release. At the same time, Netflix Inc also launched another South Korean drama adapted from South Korea's "money robbery."

Media analyst Michael Nathanson previously said in a research report that high-quality content could not be guaranteed by user increment and duration, and believed that Netflix Inc's next growth point would come from the Asia-Pacific region.

2022 should prove that no company has a monopoly on high-quality content and that the time spent on any video-on-demand platform cannot be guaranteed.

Ampere Analysis, a London-based research company, expects total spending by the entire streaming industry to exceed $230 billion this year, led by huge spending on sports rights by companies such as Comcast Corp Comcast and Walt Disney Company, the global parent of NBC, at $22.7 billion and $33 billion, respectively.

Netflix Inc spent about $17 billion on the program in 2021, but did not disclose his expenditure for 2022. Some analysts expect Netflix Inc to spend more than $17 billion on content this year, up 25 per cent from 2021 and 57 per cent from $10.8 billion in 2020.

Meanwhile, Netflix Inc said it expected more back-end weighted content in the first quarter, with a big premiere in March.

Edit / lydia

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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