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涨幅创18个月新高!科技地产暴拉,港股涨嗨了,今年表现领先全球

The increase hit an 18-month high! Technological real estate is booming, and Hong Kong stocks are booming. This year's performance is leading the world

證券時報 ·  Jan 20, 2022 20:12

Source: Securities Times

Author: Hu Huaxiong

Institutions pointed out that some of the negative effects of Hong Kong stocks in 2021 have gradually landed or dissipated, Hong Kong stocks have been fully consolidated, and there is a high probability that there will be a rebound in 2022.

Hong Kong stocks posted a rare surge in more than a year on Thursday, with the Hang Seng index rising 3.42% throughout the day, the biggest one-day gain in 18 months since July 6, 2020.

Hong Kong stocks have been the lowest performers in the world in the past 2021, but this trend seems to have been completely reversed since 2022, and so far, Hong Kong stocks have led the world in 2022.

Hong Kong stocks posted their biggest one-day gain in the last 18 months

Market data show that on January 20, the Hang Seng Index opened higher and higher throughout the day, and its gains expanded step by step. As of the close of the day, the Hang Seng Index was at 24952.35 points, up 3.42%.

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According to the reporter's statistics, the above increase in the Hang Seng Index was the biggest in the past 18 months since July 6, 2020.

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At the same time as the Hang Seng Index strengthened sharply, a number of other important indexes of Hong Kong stocks also rose sharply.

The Hang Seng China Enterprise Index rose 3.79%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index of technology and Internet stocks soared 4.50%.

Technology stocks and Internet stocks, as well as the collective strength of real estate stocks, became the main driving force for the strength of Hong Kong stocks on the same day.

Among the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Technology Index, a number of stocks soared.

Meituan rarely soared 11.01%, once back above HK $240 in intraday trading. Ming Yuan Cloud Group also soared by more than 10 per cent.

In addition, nearly half of the components of the Hang Seng Science and Technology Index rose more than 5%, including Alibaba Health Information Technology, Kuaishou Technology, Tencent, JD.com Group, JD Health, Baidu, Zhongan Online, Weimeng Group, BABA and so on.

According to the website of the National Development and Reform Commission, recently, the National Development and Reform Commission, the General Administration of Market Supervision, the Central Internet Information Office, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the Ministry of Agriculture and villages, the Ministry of Commerce, the people's Bank of China, the State Administration of Taxation and other departments jointly issued several opinions on promoting the healthy and Sustainable Development of the platform economy (Development and Reform (2021) No. 1872, hereinafter referred to as the "opinion"). The responsible comrade of the National Development and Reform Commission answered the reporter's questions on the publication of the document.

As to how to properly implement the "opinions" in the next step, the responsible comrade of the National Development and Reform Commission said that in order to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the economic norms of the platform, the National Development and Reform Commission will strengthen coordination with various departments and actively interact with local governments. Work is mainly carried out from the following three aspects.

First, strengthen overall planning and coordination. Strengthen the research on the law of platform economic development, carry out collaborative research and judgment on major issues in the field of platform economy, strengthen the overall planning and coordination of regulatory actions, and fully ensure the normal business activities of platform enterprises.

The second is to strengthen policy guarantee. We will strengthen policy guidance in terms of capital and talents, encourage and guide all kinds of investment institutions to support scientific and technological innovation in enterprises, and encourage and guide institutions of higher learning and research institutions to strengthen the training of digital talents.

The third is to carry out pilot exploration. Relying on various experimental and exploration platforms, we will constantly explore the supervision mode that adapts to the economic development of the platform, and build an institutional environment that adapts to the economic innovation and development of the platform.

In addition to technology stocks, the collective surge of housing stocks in Hong Kong stocks is another important force driving the rise of Hong Kong stocks today. Country Garden Services Holdings, Sunac China, Shimao Group, Longguang Group and other shares soared by more than 10%.

On the news side, LPR "cut interest rates" landed, the market view that is good for real estate stocks.

The results of the latest LPR quotation released on January 20th showed that the one-year LPR was 3.70%, down 10 basis points from the previous month, while varieties over five years old were reduced from 4.65% to 4.6%, which remained unchanged for 20 consecutive months.

At the same time as the main index soared, southbound funds also bought a large net purchase of about HK $6.5 billion today, the largest one-day net purchase this year.

The situation of Hong Kong stocks has been greatly reversed? Leading the world in performance since 2022

It is worth noting that the performance of Hong Kong stocks in the past 2021 is close to the lowest in the world, but since 2022, it seems to have completely reversed the trend.

At the close of trading on January 20, the Hang Seng index of Hong Kong stocks led the way in Asian stock markets.

The Hang Seng index has risen 6.64 per cent since 2022, while the FTSE Singapore Strait Index has risen 5.13 per cent over the same period, according to the data. The A-share Shanghai Composite Index, Japan's Nikkei 225 Index and Korea Composite Index all fell to varying degrees.

In addition, the data also show that from 2022 to the close of January 19, 2022 local time, stock markets in the United States and Europe have also fallen to varying degrees, including the Dow Jones Index down 3.60% and the NASDAQ Index down 8.34%.

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A recent research report by founder Securities believes that some of the negative effects of Hong Kong stocks in 2021 have gradually landed or dissipated, Hong Kong stocks have been fully consolidated, and there is a high probability that there will be a rebound in 2022. For example, from the stage of "do not use the hidden dragon" to the stage of "seeing the dragon in the field", the structure of the trend will be similar to that of A shares, the first half of the year is better than the second half of the year, and the obvious adjustment time may occur in March-April 2022 and the third quarter of 2022.

Specifically, founder Securities believes that since a large number of listed companies of Hong Kong stocks operate in the mainland, Hong Kong stocks will naturally be affected by the economic situation and economic policies of the mainland, and A shares and Hong Kong stocks have the basis of fluctuations in the same direction to a certain extent. March to April may be the end of the spring restless market of A shares, the disclosure of quarterly reports of listed companies and changes in US monetary policy, and some adjustments may occur after the rise of the stock market. The third quarter is the prelude to the US mid-term election (if US politicians create the topic of China may affect Sino-US relations), and it may be when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates many times and accelerates the contraction of the table. It may lead to a certain adjustment in Hong Kong stocks.

In terms of the extent of rebound, founder Securities believes that if A shares are assumed to have a structural bull market rather than a trend bull market in 2022, then the rebound extent of Hong Kong stocks may also be limited, because Hong Kong stocks may be more sensitive to US monetary tightening than A shares, and Hong Kong stocks may only have a structural bull market rather than a trend bull market.

HSBC Jinxin Fund's Hong Kong stock investment strategy for 2022 believes that the most painful time for the Hong Kong stock market may be over. After the heavy Internet and financial real estate sectors fell sharply, the Hong Kong stock market risk has been largely released ahead of schedule, and the future risk is more reflected in volatility than downside. The opportunity for the Hong Kong stock market in 2022 lies in the repair and improvement of the overall profit outlook, and the pressure of macroeconomic growth is the biggest challenge. however, the advantage of Hong Kong stocks is that the profit growth mainly comes from the new economy industries which are relatively weakly related to the macro economy, those industries that were directly affected by policies last year but are expected to improve significantly this year (such as the Internet, finance, real estate), and industries seriously affected by the epidemic last year. The repair of these profit prospects will also be accompanied by valuation repair, and the search for new value in the return is the core of Hong Kong stock investment strategy in 2022.

Edit / Jeffy

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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