Apple Inc will release financial results for the first quarter (Q1) of fiscal year 2022 (FY22) after US stocks opened on January 27th, Eastern time. At that time, iPhone 13 sales, service business growth, supply chain crisis, meta-universe, new business and other issues will be the focus of market attention.

Since the beginning of the year, US technology stocks have continued to pull back, with Apple Inc down more than 6 per cent this year. But Apple Inc outperformed the market in 2021, with a 34 per cent return.

JPMorgan Chase & Co believes that Apple Inc will announce higher-than-expected earnings figures in his quarterly earnings report, thus causing the stock price to rise."We believe that investors will continue to justify the premium PE multiple (30 times) as earnings are expected to escalate further, driving up share prices on the basis of a combination of a small overperformance of first-quarter results and a better outlook."

IPhone13 is a big seller! IPhone sales are expected to exceed market consensus expectations

JPMorgan Chase & Co said improved supply and continued strong demand should lead to higher-than-seasonal iPhone income.It is expected that driven by the improvement in iPhone shipments, Apple Inc's profit and revenue figures will have a moderate increase.

Loop analysts pointed out that iPhone sales in the first quarter are expected to be between 84 million and 85 million, higher than the Wall Street consensus forecast of 81 million. Driven by strong iPhone sales, Apple Inc is expected to earn $1.95 per share on revenue of $122 billion in the first quarter, higher than the consensus forecast of $118 billion and $1.88 per share.

According to the results of a survey of the supply chain shared by Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives,In the past holiday season from October to December, Apple Inc sold a total of 40 million iPhone 13 series, setting a new record. He estimates that the market demand for iPhone will continue to be strong into the first quarter of this year.

But this is only the quantity sold, and the actual demand for iPhone 13 still has a shortage of 12 million chips, which can not be delivered normally. The delayed orders will be resolved in the first half of this year as supply chain problems improve.

In addition, since the fourth-quarter results only end on Sept. 25, this year's iPhone 13 series officially went on sale on Sept. 24, which means that only the first two days of the iPhone 13 series are included in the results. The revenue share of the iPhone 13 series is expected to be very eye-catching in the Q1 earnings report at the end of January 2022.

Several market analysts said that if iPhone 13 sales continue to be strong, Apple Inc is expected to break through the $4 trillion mark in 2022, making another history.

Guo Mingyi, an analyst at Tianfeng International Securities, also predicted that iPhone sales are expected to continue to grow in the next two years, rising from 195 million in 2021 to 230 million-240 million and 250 million-260 million.

The service business may continue to benefit from the expansion of Apple Inc's user base and maintain high growth

Apple Inc's booming service business, including app store sales, music and video subscription services, extended warranty, licensing and advertising, will also be the focus of attention.

On January 10th, Apple Inc disclosed a large amount of data on the service business. According to the report, Apple Inc paid US $60 billion to developers in 2021, an increase of 33% over the same period last year, setting an annual record for App Store developer revenue.

With reference to the situation in previous years, we can find outApple Inc's sales from App Store are growing rapidly year by year.

In 2019, Apple Inc said a total of $155 billion has been paid to developers since 2008. At the end of 2020, this figure reached $200 billion, an increase of $45 billion over 19 years. The latest figures show that the annual increase last year was $60 billion.

The disclosure of this figure is part of Apple Inc's showing the growth trend of his service business. This is an important signal for analysts and investors who want Apple Inc to make revenue not only by selling hardware, but also by selling services and applications.

In addition,Currently, more than 745 million paying members use Apple's paid subscription service on more than 1 billion devices.This includes Apple Music and iCloud, as well as in-app subscriptions through App Store. Last summer, the number of paying members was 700 million.

FY21Q4, Apple Inc service business performance, revenue of 18.277 billion US dollars, yoy+26% maintained rapid growth, second only to iPhone business growth, accounting for 21.9% of the company's total revenue, becoming the second largest source of revenue.

This quarter, the business is expected to continue to benefit from the expansion of Apple Inc's user base caused by the increase in hardware shipments and maintain high-speed growth.

Meta Universe Progress: VR/AR headset is expected to be launched this year

The market pays close attention to the progress of Apple Inc's layout in the field of meta-universe. Although Apple Inc has never publicly confirmed the progress of its AR/VR helmet, investors and analysts are increasingly convinced that helmets could become a major new product category for the tech giant.

Guo Mingyi released a report in November last year that Apple Inc will launch AR/VR Touch display in 2022, which is the first step of Apple Inc's plan to replace iPhone with AR/VR Touch Show within 10 years. According to market rumors, the new product may sell for about $3000, making it the highest-priced consumer-grade MR (a combination of AR and VR) device known to date, and the most expensive device ever worn by Apple Inc.

Analysts at Bernstein predict that Apple Inc could ship 22 million augmented reality devices by 2030, which could increase revenue by 4 per cent, while augmented reality devices could account for more than 20 per cent of Apple Inc's overall income by 2040.

The loss caused by the supply chain crisis may be as high as 10 billion dollars.

In the context of the continuing shortage of chips, Apple Inc is also inevitably experiencing an unprecedented supply chain crisis.

At Apple Inc's earnings meeting in the fourth quarter, Cook personally admitted that due to the chip shortage and the impact of the epidemic in Southeast Asia, iPhone and overall sales were lower than expected. Apple Inc lost about US $6 billion in the fourth quarter. It is estimated that Apple Inc's annual loss will exceed 10 billion US dollars.

In addition, the global core shortage trend has continued since last year, downstream electronic products companies in order to obtain the supply of upstream chip foundry, even if the price increase can only be accepted. According to Taiwan's Industrial and Commercial Times, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd raised the price of chip foundry across the board this year, and Apple Inc, his largest customer, also had to accept the increase in chip price for the first time to ensure production capacity.

In the upcoming earnings call, executives may elaborate on the negative impact of the supply chain crisis on the company's capacity and revenue.

However, Wedbush predicts that the tight supply chain in the first half of this year is expected to ease, and Apple Inc's performance is expected to be "tailwind". Morgan Stanley also said that the "dark moment" of supply chain disruption is over and that the problem will be resolved more comprehensively in the first half of 2022.

Cars are the next major growth point?

According to market news, Apple Inc has put forward parts production requirements to a number of supply chain manufacturers in East Asia, and the Apple Car, Apple Inc's first electric vehicle, which was originally scheduled to appear on the market in 2025, is expected to be released in September this year.

Piper Sandler analysts believe that the automobile business is the key to Apple Inc's next growth market. Reports of Apple Inc's march continue to circulate, and the analyst thinks it is reasonable because cars can be used as a hardware platform for selling Apple Inc's services.

New business is an important direction for Apple Inc to open the valuation space, the disclosure of the previous quarterly report is limited, investors can pay attention to the progress of the new business.

Bloomberg expects

According to Bloomberg analysts, Q1 Apple Inc's revenue in 2022 was $118.767 billion, up 6.6% from a year earlier; adjusted net income was $31.229 billion, up 8.6% from a year earlier; and adjusted earnings per share was $1.89, up 12.6% from a year earlier.