Performance preview
4Q21 forecasts profit growth of 2% 55% compared with the same period last year
The company issued an annual performance forecast for 2021: the net profit in 2021 was 11.9-1.32 billion yuan, which was + 40% 55% compared with the same period last year; the net profit of deducting non-return-to-home net profit was 10.9%-1.22 billion yuan, and + 43% 60% compared with the same period last year, which was in line with our expectations.
Pay attention to the main points
European business restructuring released greater flexibility, under the low base effect of fourth-quarter results positive year-on-year growth. 4Q21 realized a net profit of 2.5-370 million yuan, which was 55% higher than that of the same period last year. Taking into account the 4Q20 provision of 270 million yuan of asset impairment loss (European business restructuring), there is a certain low base effect. Excluding the impact of asset impairment, 4Q21 net profit declined slightly compared with the same period last year, we expect to be mainly due to rising raw material prices, shipping costs caused by the company's profitability under pressure. In the long run, we believe that overseas operations tend to be optimized with the completion of European restructuring operations.
Thermoforming new business rapid climbing contribution increment, actively expand new energy customers, long-term growth momentum is sufficient. The company currently has 11 thermoforming production lines, which are deeply bound to FAW Group to achieve rapid expansion of thermoforming business. In terms of customer structure, the company continues to optimize customer resources, promote mergers and acquisitions at home and abroad, and expand global market share. While providing supporting services for the middle and high-end car systems of the world's mainstream brands, the company focuses on increasing investment in new power car companies represented by Tesla, Inc., NIO Inc. and XPeng Inc., and actively embraces a new era of electric and intelligent auto parts. We are optimistic that the company will break through the traditional business bottleneck and achieve new profit growth points by the way of independent research and development and epitaxial mergers and acquisitions.
Fixed increase landing to enhance the proportion of shares of real controllers, book cash thickening operating safety pad. The company recently announced a report on the issuance of additional projects. After the completion of this issue, the shares directly and indirectly held by the company's actual controllers will be increased from 24.03% to 41.57%, with a large increase in the proportion of shares. We expect that after the completion of this increase, it is expected to further supplement the company's cash flow, deepen the binding between major shareholders and the company's interests, and promote the continuous improvement of management efficiency.
Valuation and suggestion
The 2021 and 2022 profit forecasts will remain unchanged, and the 2023 profit forecast will be introduced for the first time. The current share price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5 times 2022. Maintain an outperform industry rating and a list price of 26.20 yuan, corresponding to 12.4 times 2022 price-to-earnings ratio, which has 18.1% upside compared to the current stock price.
Risk.
The price of raw materials rose more than expected, and the expansion of customers fell short of expectations.
