Global macro

• Us stock index futures rose slightly before trading.

• The yield on 10-year US Treasuries continues to approach 2 per cent, suggesting that the Fed's rate hike in March is a "certainty"

Benchmark US Treasury yields are nearing the 2 per cent mark as traders bet that the Fed will raise interest rates sharply in March. Since January, the 10-year Treasury bond has climbed 37 basis points to 1.88%, the fastest monthly rise since November 2016. Damien McColough, head of fixed income research at Westpac, said that while the 10-year Treasury yield above 2 per cent seemed "certain", the sell-off could slow for some time, and yields would certainly continue to rise when the Fed confirmed its first rate hike.

• Do not fear O'Micron and raise interest rates! OPEC expects that the oil market will still be well supported this year.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) has stuck to its forecast for strong growth in global oil demand in 2022 despite the global spread of the new crown O'Micron and a wave of interest rate hikes by central banks, and the oil market is expected to be well supported this year. Global oil demand is expected to increase by 4.15 million b / d in 2022, the same as last month's forecast, OPEC said in its monthly report. Oil consumption in the third quarter will break through the 100 million barrels per day mark, which is also in line with last month's forecast.

• There are key signals on the technical side of US stocks, and the time has come to buy on the bargain.

The S & P 500 is under threat of closing below its 100-day moving average, which fell below its 100-day moving average on Tuesday for the first time in more than three months. The closing price falling below the moving average is disturbing because it may herald a change in momentum. But the data show that the S & P 500 has closed below its 100-day moving average eight times since June 2020. Only three times the S & P 500 continued to fall after falling below its 100-day moving average, the worst of which was a fall of 0.16 per cent before rebounding. But in the long run after the global financial crisis, investors who buy US stocks at bargain prices tend to be rewarded.

• Raise interest rates by 50 basis points at a time! The market began to seriously consider that the Fed might do this.

Judging from the performance of the money markets, investors began to expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at its March meeting. If so, it would be the largest single rate hike by the Fed since May 2000. While the current market believes that the most likely scenario is for the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March, the swap market (swap market) is now pricing it at more than 25 basis points.

• The wooden Sister ARKK fund fell to an 18-month low on Tuesday.

With the Fed's interest rate hike ahead of schedule, US bond yields jumping and technology stocks plunging in the new year, star fund manager Casey Wood got off to a dismal start in 2022, and things are getting worse. By the close of trading on Tuesday, Mu's flagship fund, ARK Innovation ETF, had fallen to an 18-month low, with all 44 stocks close to falling, and the fund is down nearly 19 per cent so far this year.

• Tesla, Inc. 's shareholders demanded Musk's return of $13 billion, saying he forced the board of directors to buy SolarCity

According to reports, some shareholders of Tesla, Inc. took Musk to court, accusing Musk of putting pressure on the board to facilitate the 2016 acquisition of SolarCity, urging the judge to rule and demanding Musk to repay $13 billion. Randy Barron, a shareholder attorney, believes that the acquisition of SolarCity was carefully orchestrated by Mr Musk to ease SolarCity's financial crisis, which is the key to the case.

Hot news

• The demand for lithography equipment is high, and ASML Holding NV's Q4 profit continues to exceed expectations.

Global lithography machine leader$ASML Holding NV (ASML.US) $Disclosure of 2021 quarterly report and full-year results, the company said that the extremely strong market demand will drive the company's performance to continue to grow at a high speed. According to the financial report, net sales in the fourth quarter of 2021 were 4.986 billion euros and net profit was 1.774 billion euros (or 4.39 euros EPS). Although revenue fell short of market consensus expectations of 5.1 billion euros, profits were significantly better than analysts' expectations of 1.51 billion euros.

In 2021, when fabs were waving checks to expand production, the company achieved total net sales of 18.611 billion euros, an increase of 33% over the previous fiscal year, and net profit rose from 3.554 billion euros to 5.883 billion euros. A more prominent indicator was that net orders reached 26.24 billion euros at the end of 2021, double that of the same period last year.

• Bank of America Corporation's fourth-quarter net profit was 7 billion US dollars, up nearly 3 per cent before trading.

$Bank of America Corporation (BAC.US) $Fourth-quarter net income of $7 billion, market expectations of $6.3 billion; earnings per share of $0.82, market estimates of $0.76. As of press time, Bank of America Corporation was up nearly 3 per cent before trading.

• Morgan Stanley rose more than 2% before trading, and the performance of Q4 exceeded expectations.

$Morgan Stanley (MS.US) $Q4 revenue is $14.524 billion, up 7% from a year earlier, and the market is expected to be $14.44 billion; net profit is $3.716 billion, up 9% from a year earlier; adjusted earnings per share are $2.08, up 8% from a year earlier, and the market is expected to be $1.94. The company's share price is up more than 2% before trading.

• Credit Suisse: fundamentals firmly support the stock price, raising Tesla, Inc. 's target price to $1025

Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy will$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $The target price was raised to $1025 from $830 and the stock maintained a "neutral" rating. Analysts believe favorable fundamentals will continue to support Tesla, Inc. 's share price, but he adds that non-fundamentals also need to maintain support for the share price. Analysts pointed out that based on Tesla, Inc. 's quarterly profit margin growth, he expected the company's fourth-quarter earnings per share to be higher than widely expected. As of press time, Tesla, Inc. was up 0.69% before trading.

• Deutsche Bank: Apple Inc's growth prospect is promising, raising the target price to 200 US dollars.

Deutsche Bank analyst Sidney Ho will$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $The target price was raised to $200 from $175 and a "buy" rating on the stock was maintained. Analysts said Wall Street's forecast for Apple Inc's revenue growth of just 5 per cent in fiscal 2022 was too low, given the "healthy demand environment" and the strong combination of all Apple Inc's product lines. Some of Apple Inc's revenue since 2021 alone has contributed 3 percentage points to Apple Inc's growth in fiscal year 2021.

Analysts believe that Apple Inc's share price has an upward trend this year, and although supply chain restrictions will adversely affect revenue in the short term, Apple Inc's supply chain has improved at a faster rate, and the waiting time for buying iPhone has been reduced to only a few days, which should be enough to boost Apple Inc's performance and share price. In addition, analysts believe the stock will "benefit from investments that shift to high-quality assets in an inflationary environment".

• Microsoft Corp's acquisition of Blizzard has one more hurdle: antitrust review.
  

The explosive events in the game industry this year--$Microsoft Corp (MSFT.US) $Buy it for $68.7 billionActivision Blizzard (ATVI.US) $It may not go very well. According to media reports, Microsoft Corp may face strict scrutiny from antitrust authorities at home and abroad. Prior to this, Microsoft Corp has largely avoided the wave of domestic antitrust investigations into technology giants, and the antitrust firepower of the Ministry of Justice, the Federal Trade Commission and Congress is mainly focused on other technology giants such as Alphabet Inc-CL C, Amazon.Com Inc and Apple Inc. But such a big acquisition could re-alarm regulators.

• Sony Group Corp fell more than 4% before the session, analyst: Sony Group Corp will be very difficult to compete with Microsoft Corp in the acquisition of game IP

在$Microsoft Corp (MSFT.US) $Announced that the largest acquisition in history will buy the game giant at $95 a share.Activision Blizzard (ATVI.US) $。$Sony Group Corp (SONY.US) $Last night, it closed down 7 per cent at $115, with a total market capitalization of $143.7 billion, down nearly 10 per cent at one point, the biggest intraday decline since March 2020. Morningstar research analyst said that it will be very difficult for Sony Group Corp to acquire game IP to rival Microsoft Corp. The fall in share prices suggests investors are worried that Sony Group Corp may not be able to continue to win the competition if the industry does abandon its hardware-based model. As of press time, Sony Group Corp was down more than 4 per cent before trading.

• The "core shortage" continues! Toyota warned that it could not meet its production target for the current fiscal year, which once fell by more than 4% before trading.

As of press time, the world's largest automaker$Toyota Motor Corp (TM.US) $At one point, it fell more than 4% before trading, after the carmaker warned that it might not meet its production targets for the current fiscal year. Kazunari Kumakura, Toyota's purchasing director, said on Tuesday that it would be "very difficult" to meet its production target of 9 million vehicles in the 2021 fiscal year to March because of supply chain challenges, including semiconductor shortages. Although Toyota did not set a new production target for fiscal year 2021, the carmaker said global production would reach 700000 vehicles in February, up from 660000 a year earlier but about 150000 fewer than originally planned.

• Sofia, a consumer loan company, rose more than 17% before trading and was approved as a bank holding company.

Consumer loan company$SoFi Technologies (SOFI.US) $It was approved by the Office of the Comptroller of the currency (OCC) and the Federal Reserve to become a bank holding company. The mobile-led financial company offers banking products, including loans, cash accounts and debit cards. SoFi expects the acquisition to be completed in February. Wedbush analyst David Chiaverini gave SoFi an "outperform" rating for the first time, with a target price of $20. Analysts say the company's growth prospects are strong, with revenues expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 28 per cent in the five years to 2026.

• Canalys:2021 Q4 Apple Inc accounts for 22% of global smartphone shipments, surpassing Samsung to become the first
  

The latest report released by Canalys, a data research institution, shows that thanks to the success of iPhone 13,$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $Mobile phones accounted for 22% of global smartphone shipments in the fourth quarter of 2021, ranking first in the global smartphone market, followed by Samsung with a 20% market share. In addition, XIAOMI ranked third with 12 per cent, OPPO ranked fourth with 9 per cent and vivo ranked the top five with 8 per cent.

• Xiaomo: multiple factors are good for Goldman Sachs Group's growth, with a target price of $465

JPMorgan Chase & Co analyst Kian Abouhossein Yu$Goldman Sachs Group (GS.US) $Increase the rating with a target price of $465. Abouhossein believes Goldman Sachs Group's share price performance on Tuesday reflected disappointment that his salary expenditure in the fourth quarter was higher than expected; Goldman Sachs Group's salary expenditure for the whole of 2021 rose 33 per cent from a year earlier, in line with a 33 per cent increase in net revenue. Goldman Sachs Group closed down 6.97% at $354.4 on Tuesday. Nevertheless, the analyst believes that Goldman Sachs Group will continue to expand market share, and the growth of the stock portfolio in asset management will continue to promote the continued growth of book value per share. And Goldman Sachs Group may further generate operational leverage from its sales and trading franchise business.

Focus on China-listed stocks

• Most of the hot Chinese stocks rose before the session, with KE Holdings Inc. rising by 6% and boss by 3%.

• Taobao releases 2022 live broadcast incentive plan
  

Recently$BABA (BABA.US) $The Chinese digital commerce plate clearly defines the organizational structure of Taobao Tmall, and the person in charge of Taobao Live report directly to the president in charge. It has been learned from the heads of a number of live broadcast organizations that Taobao Live has recently issued an incentive plan for 2022 to support the growth of the middle waist and new talent. Taobao will also increase the support of Amoy traffic to live streaming from the product level. Taobao Live has recently focused on testing and opening up more resource bits for live streaming business in Amoy. On this basis, Taobao plans to provide a series of flow support policies to the middle waist and newcomers in 2022.

Pre-market turnover of US stocks TOP20

American Macro Calendar reminder:

Here are the specific arrangements for the release of US macro data on January 19:

21:30 monthly rate of construction permits in the United States in December (previous 3.9%)

21:30 Total number of construction permits in the United States in December (forecast value 1.701 million sets, previous value 1.717 million sets)

21:30 monthly rate of new housing starts in December in the United States (previous 11.8%)

21:30 Total annualized housing starts in December in the United States (forecast value 1.65 million units, previous value 1.679 million units)