Yongda Automobile issued a performance forecast announcement that the net profit for the whole year of 2022 is expected to grow by no less than 50%, corresponding to the minimum net profit of 2.44 billion yuan, which is in line with expectations. It is expected that the company will benefit from the volume of BMW and Porsche in 2022, with flexible short-term performance; in the long run, the cooperation model of new energy brands is lighter, and ROE is expected to improve. The company's current configuration value is prominent, reiterating the "buy" rating.
The company issued a performance forecast, and the net profit is expected to be no less than 2.44 billion yuan, in line with expectations. Yongda issued a profit forecast. It is expected that the net profit of 2021 will increase by no less than 50%, and the corresponding net profit will not be less than 2.44 billion yuan. Yongda recorded a net profit of 1.8 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2021, corresponding to the lower limit of 2021Q4 net profit of 635 million yuan (+ 3.3% compared with the same period last year), which is in line with expectations.
Outlook 2022: sales of BMW and Porsche are expected to be bright, which is expected to bring performance flexibility. Since the second half of 2021, the lack of core in the industry has continued, and the company's key brands such as BMW and Porsche have performed well in new car gross profit margins. Although BMW has adjusted its rebate policy slightly, it does not affect the company's performance growth trend. Looking forward to 2022, we expect BMW China sales growth to reach 8%, Porsche China sales growth is expected to reach more than 15%, is expected to bring the company's revenue growth of 15% or more in 2022, volume is expected to bring performance flexibility.
The distribution of new energy is long-term, and the industry trend is light and capitalization increases ROE. In the new energy brand, the company has stepped up its layout and carried out cooperation with XPeng Inc., Euler Motor, Ford Mustang, Zhiji Automobile, Gaohe and other brands. In addition, the mode of cooperation between dealers and new energy brands is mostly light asset mode, and the early investment of Shang Chao stores is relatively small. In addition, under the dealer "agent" cooperation mode, there is no need to undertake inventory, light asset operation, single-store ROE compared with traditional BBA distribution stores have a better promotion.
Risk factors: new car sales fall short of expectations; price war breaks out at the end of the industry; financing costs rise.
Investment suggestion: we maintain the company's annual EPS forecast of 1.27, 1.51and 1.74 yuan in 2021-22-23. The current share price is 9.97 Hong Kong dollars, corresponding to the 2021-22-23 year PE is 6.7pm 5.6pm 4.9 times, the allocation value is prominent.
Looking to the future, short-term performance is flexible, long-term new energy brand cooperation model is more "light", ROE is expected to improve. Based on the company's 2022 11 times PE, corresponding to the target price of HK $20, the company's current allocation value is prominent, reiterating the "buy" rating.