After several months of silence at the end of last year, international oil prices rose sharply in the New year. Brent crude oil broke through 87 US dollars per barrel in early trading in the Asian market on January 18, setting a new high in 2014. Goldman Sachs Group had predicted that oil prices would reach 100 US dollars per barrel this year. At present, the goal is getting closer and closer.

On January 18, cloth oil opened directly, breaking through 87 US dollars per barrel and hitting 88.13 US dollars per barrel in intraday trading. New York crude oil also skyrocketed, breaking through $84 a barrel and rising to $85.16 at one point. Both refreshed recent intraday highs.

On the news side, recent data released by the US Energy Information Administration show that despite the sharp drop in US refinery operating rates, US crude oil inventories have fallen to the lowest level since October 2018, with a faster-than-expected decline, while weak demand has led to a sharp rise in gasoline stocks. At the same time, US strategic oil reserves continue to decline and distillate stocks continue to increase, which are well below the level of the same period in the past five years.

On the other hand, according to foreign media citing sources, the market believes that there is a growing possibility of Russian military intervention in Ukraine (Russian and Ukrainian dollar bonds have been hit). Russia's direct invasion will have a significant impact on global crude oil supplies. Russia is one of the world's largest oil producers, producing more than 11 million barrels of oil a day (accounting for more than 10% of the world's daily supply).

International oil prices in 2021 have performed best in the past decade, and against the backdrop of the overall surge, most institutions are also optimistic about oil prices this year.

In its monthly oil market report released in December 2021, OPEC believes that countries around the world are now better able to deal with the COVID-19 epidemic and its related challenges, and the impact of the O'Micron variant is expected to be mild and short-lived. Economic prospects for developed and emerging economies are stable.

Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group, said recently that the bank was "extremely bullish" on commodities and believed there could be a 10-year supercycle.Goldman Sachs Group said the target price for Brent crude in the first quarter was $85 a barrel, but that was under the assumption that Iranian production would resume later this year.Now, however, it seems less and less likely. If Iran does not resume exports, it may see oil prices reach $100 a barrel this year.

JPMorgan Chase & Co boldly predicts that oil prices could soar to $125a barrel this year and $150a barrel in 2023. They say the market is increasingly aware of underinvestment in global supply, and that the combination of underinvestment in OPEC+ oil-producing countries and rising oil demand after the outbreak could lead to a potential energy crisis.

Domestic Societe Generale Securities believes that the time when oil prices break through 90 US dollars per barrel and hit 100 US dollars per barrel may be earlier than they had expected in 2023, and the possibility of this year is increasing. The specific logic is as follows:

(1) the current global transition to clean energy and the commitment to carbon neutrality by 2050 make it possible for the current round of commodity prices to rise while capital investment remains depressed, an era of rising prices of both new and old energy. (2) under the current low global crude oil inventories, the commodity market has little ability to cope with sudden supply shortages. In the event of a sudden supply shortage, the benchmark judgment in 2022 has a greater upside risk, which is gradually becoming a reality.

In contrast, the US Energy Information Administration expressed concern about the impact of novel coronavirus mutant on the oil market in its short-term energy outlook released in December 2021. Production growth in OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries, the United States and other countries is expected to exceed the growth rate of global oil consumption in 2022.