The company issued a performance forecast for 2021, which is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.5-260 million yuan in 2021, which is expected to be deducted from non-return net profit of 2.46-256 million yuan, an increase of 85.35% and 92.55% over the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of 85.35% and 92.55% compared with the same period last year. The company is a leading manufacturer in the field of domestic aerospace manufacturing, with the full process manufacturing capacity of aviation parts, and is expected to fully benefit from the rapid expansion of China's aviation equipment and the continuous expansion of civil aircraft supporting demand; at the same time, the company actively arranges the field of intelligent manufacturing, and the growth space is expected to be further opened. Therefore, with reference to the comparable company valuation level and taking into account the company's industry position in the segment, maintain the company's "overweight" rating.

The rapid growth of demand reflects the advantages of the whole process, and the company expects the net profit of homing in 2021 to increase by 83% and 90%.

Benefiting from the rapid growth in demand for aviation equipment, the company continues to steadily promote various businesses, the new production capacity of precision CNC machining is released one after another, the utilization rate of special process capacity of heat meter increases steadily, and the parts assembly business begins to deliver and settle accounts. At the same time, the company's aviation parts business advantages are gradually reflected, and it is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB2.5-260 million in 2021 (unaudited, the same below) An increase of 83% over the same period last year and 90% per cent It is estimated that the net profit of deducting non-return in 2021 will be 2.46-256 million yuan, an increase of 85.35% 92.55% over the same period last year. According to the performance forecast, the 2021Q4 company realized a net profit of 0.70-80 million yuan, an increase of 45.9%, 65.8% over the same period last year, and an increase of-3.0% to 10.2% compared with 2021Q3.

Special process treatment is expected to become a new support point for performance, helping the company to upgrade the supporting level. In 2017, the company plans to introduce international advanced non-destructive testing and other special technological processes to open up the key links of the company from parts machine to parts assembly. as of December 31, 2019, the project has completed investment construction and has been put into use, but the settlement has not yet been carried out to form benefits. According to the company's analysis, it is estimated that the production line will achieve an annual operating income of 3760 million yuan / year and an annual net profit of 11.07 million yuan, which is expected to become a new growth point of the company's performance. at the same time, the project also helps the company to upgrade the supporting level of "parts machine plus-> component assembly" and further open up the growth space of the company. In 2019, the company's special process lines such as non-destructive testing, anodizing, painting, chromium plating, cadmium plating, galvanizing and nickel plating were officially put into production; in 2020, the production capacity of each production line of the company's special process was gradually released, and the whole process capacity of aviation parts was connected; in 2021, the company further optimized the production efficiency of relevant production lines and improved the output of various production lines and capacity utilization.

Fixed increase to complete the gradual landing of production capacity, the layout of intelligent manufacturing to enhance the core competitiveness. On September 30, 2020, the company announced that it intends to issue shares to specific targets to raise a total of no more than 500 million yuan for the "Aviation parts Intelligent Manufacturing Center" project and supplementary liquidity. The structure of aviation parts is complex and Applied Materials Inc is diverse. The implementation of intelligent manufacturing upgrade based on the new generation of information and artificial intelligence technology is expected to improve product performance, development quality, shorten manufacturing cycle and reduce manufacturing cost. By August 19, 2021, the fixed increase has been completed, and the planned construction period of the project is 42 months. after completion, the company's production capacity and operation scale will be significantly expanded. after reaching full production, the company expects to achieve annual sales income of 234 million yuan and net profit of 60.02 million yuan. In addition, the intelligent and flexible degree of the company's production line will also be significantly improved, and the core competitiveness of products is expected to be further improved.

Risk factors: the growth of newly signed orders is not as expected; the development of new products is lower than expected.

Investment suggestion: the company is a leading manufacturer in the field of domestic aerospace manufacturing, with the full process manufacturing capacity of aviation parts, and is expected to fully benefit from the rapid release of aviation equipment and the continuous expansion of civil aircraft supporting demand. at the same time, the company actively layout the field of intelligent manufacturing, the growth space is expected to be further opened. Raise the company's annual net profit forecast for 2021-22-23 to 2.55 yuan, 370 yuan, 520 million yuan (the original forecast is 2.33 yuan 3.35 / 470 million yuan respectively), the current price corresponding to PE is 44-31-22 times, with reference to comparable companies and considering the company's leading position, give the company 35 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 52 yuan, to maintain the "overweight" rating.