On January 17, domestic futures fell more and rose less in early trading, while black futures led the decline. The main contracts of manganese silicon and coke fell by more than 5%, coking coal and ferrosilicon fell by more than 3%, and urea, Apple Inc, thread, international copper, hot coil, iron ore, liquefied petroleum gas, pulp and Shanghai copper fell by more than 2%. In terms of increases, red dates and thermal coal rose by more than 2%, while fuel and styrene rose by nearly 2%.
Tonga volcanic eruption has a low overall impact on agricultural products.
Zhou Xiaoqiu, chief researcher of agricultural products in Guotai Junan Futures, believes that Tonga volcano eruption has attracted global attention. We believe that the main impact is local tsunamis and short-term climate anomalies, which has little impact on the global long-term climate and has little impact on the overall production of agricultural products. Logically, Tonga's eruption could cause ash to enter the stratosphere, lowering global temperatures and affecting crop growth. in particular, agricultural products such as soybeans and corn, which are growing in the southern hemisphere, may be affected by market sentiment at this stage.
Tonga volcano eruption may affect La Nina development
Tonga Honha Apai undersea volcano erupted violently on January 15, possibly the largest volcanic eruption in 30 years. Satellite data show that the ash cloud emitted by the volcano forms an umbrella cloud with a diameter of nearly 500 kilometers, and the huge shock wave around the umbrella cloud is clearly visible. Pictures of Tonga's disaster have been exposed one after another. through Fengyun 3 E Star WindRad ocean wind products on January 15, the ocean surface wind speed near Tonga increased abnormally and significantly before and after the volcanic eruption, indicating abnormal wave activity in the sea near Tonga. The Tonga volcano eruption site is located in the south of the key monitoring area of El Nino-La Nina phenomenon. the volcanic eruption will affect the development trend of the current La Nina state through the interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean. (weather in China)
Tonga volcano eruption causes slight delay in copper concentrate shipment in South America
According to Mysteel, a series of undersea volcanoes erupted on the island of Hongha Apai in Tonga, a South Pacific island nation, affecting the entire Pacific coast according to global water level monitoring data. Japan, the United States, Canada, New Zealand, Fiji, Samoa, Vanuatu, Australia and Chile all issued tsunami warnings. Seawater backflow occurred in many parts of South America, Chile and Peru. According to research feedback, there are some small tsunamis along the coast of South America, with a wave height of 0.7Mi 1.5 meters, some port operations have been suspended for a period, and the shipment of copper concentrate has been slightly delayed.
Comments on Shenwan Futures Manganese Silicon and Shuangjiao fell sharply
Today, manganese silicon is in a weak decline, falling by more than 5%. Affected by the epidemic in Tianjin, manganese ore prices and freight have risen slightly. At present, the manganese ore inventory of alloy manufacturers can still maintain normal production, and the future should pay attention to the progress of shipping; while the fourth round increase of coke enterprises has been rejected by mainstream steel mills, coke prices are expected to fall in the future. Steel production has rebounded in January, the Spring Festival is approaching the release of winter storage demand of steel mills, and downstream demand has improved; but recently, the profits of manganese and silicon manufacturers are good, the output level has not dropped significantly, and the overall supply of the market is still relatively loose. Coupled with the sharp decline in coke prices today, the cost support of manganese silicon in the future is weaker, and the price upward pressure is greater.
Today, the futures price of Shuangjiao has fallen sharply by more than 4%, on the one hand, because of the collective adjustment of the black system, and on the other hand, the gradual easing pattern of bifocal fundamentals has not changed.
In terms of coke, the core of coke supply disturbance is the strong expectation of limiting production in environmental protection, at the same time, the inventory of coke enterprises goes to the warehouse quickly, and the market mood of coke enterprises is more optimistic, but last week, the fourth round increase of 200 yuan / ton by coke enterprises was rejected by mainstream steel mills, and the disk fell ahead of schedule.
In terms of coking coal, some major producing areas are affected by the epidemic, coal mines have signs of stopping production, and coal mine output is relatively low, driving a strong bullish sentiment in the domestic coking coal market, but it is difficult to change the pattern of gradual loosening of supply, and the total inventory of coking coal continues to pick up quickly.
In the future, bifocal fundamentals do not support a sustained rise in spot prices, and prices are expected to show a weak trend in the context of a gradual improvement in supply.