The power supply of the company will be 430.17 billion kilowatt-hours in 2021, in line with expectations. The increase in electricity price has been initially reflected, and the Q4 feed-in electricity price has increased by 14% month-on-month. However, due to the sharp increase in costs, we expect the Q4 thermal power business unit loss to expand to 0.10 yuan / kWh. The new energy installed throughout the year has increased by more than 3 million kilowatts. The high performance of new energy hedges against the pressure of thermal power losses to a certain extent. Looking forward to 2022, it is expected that the company's thermal power business is expected to turn around and the development of new energy business will be further accelerated. The "thermal power plus scenery" model will drive the company's strategic transformation and release performance flexibility. The list price of Abig H shares is 8.80 yuan / 5.90 Hong Kong dollars, all of which maintain the "buy" rating.
The amount of online electricity in 2021 increased slightly compared with the same period last year, in line with expectations. In 2021, the company's online electricity was 430.17 billion kilowatt hours, an increase of 13.2% over the same period last year, in line with expectations. Of these, the online electricity of coal / gas / biomass was 3785.3 kilowatt hours, an increase of 10.8 percent, 26.2 percent, 201.5 percent, and 80.9 million kilowatt hours, respectively, an increase of 46.8 percent, 46.9 percent, and 6.6 percent, respectively, for wind power, photovoltaic, hydropower, 198.1 million kilowatt hours, and 46.8 percent, 46.9 percent, and 6.6 percent over the same period last year. As of the end of 2021, the company's holding / equity installed capacity is 11869.5, 103.875 million kilowatts.
Electricity price has risen but still not enough to cover the cost pressure, it is judged that the loss of Q4 kilowatt-hour electricity may be expanded to 0.10 yuan.
The coal price of 2021Q3 Company is about 1100 yuan / ton, considering that the quarterly average price of Q4 domestic thermal coal is still on the rise, such as the average price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Guangzhou Port is 1631 yuan / ton (with a month-on-month ratio of + 120% Uniqoux 31%), we expect the company's Q4 standard coal to increase to 1400 yuan / ton. Driven by measures such as the expansion of the upper limit of the floating range of electricity prices, Q4 company's quarterly settlement electricity price increased by 0.06 yuan / kWh (+ 14%) to 0.47 yuan / kWh, and the increase in electricity price has been initially reflected. Moderately help the company to ease the cost pressure caused by rising coal prices. However, considering the sharp rise in coal prices, we judge that the company's Q4 thermal power profit loss may expand to 0.10 yuan / kWh.
The scenery layout has achieved initial results, and the high performance of new energy has alleviated the pressure of coal power loss to a certain extent. The company actively promotes the development of new energy business. In 2021, the company installed about 3.229 million kilowatts of new energy, including 2.4 million kilowatts of wind power and 829000 kilowatts of photovoltaic power. At the end of 2021, the company installed a total of nearly 1400 kilowatts of new energy. The company's new energy sector made a profit of about 4 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2021, and the company's new energy net profit for the whole year is expected to exceed 5 billion yuan. In the environment of the sharp rise in coal prices, the new energy business has made a great contribution for the company to resist the performance pressure brought about by the rise in coal prices.
It is expected that the profitability of the thermal power sector is expected to recover in 2022, helping the company to transform to clean energy. The increase in the supply of thermal coal and the dredging effect of electricity prices to the lower reaches gradually appear. We expect the feed-in electricity price of thermal power to rise by 20% year on year in 2022, and the fuel cost will be slightly reduced. It is expected that the pressure of thermal power loss will peak at 2021Q4 and fall back quickly, and the profitability of the company's thermal power business is expected to recover in 2020. At the same time, the company is accelerating the development of the new energy field, we expect the company to install about 40 million kilowatts during the 14th five-year Plan period, new energy is increasingly becoming an important growth point of performance and is expected to reduce the overall ROE fluctuation of the company. "Thermal Power + scenery"
The model is constantly optimizing the company's profit structure, improving the company's performance stability and growth, and driving the company's strategic transformation.
Risk factors: coal prices rose sharply; electricity prices rose by a limited margin; new energy was installed and put into production less than expected; the rate of return of Fengguang project was lower than expected.
Investment suggestion: in 2021, the company's online power is in line with expectations and the cost pressure is within expectations. We maintain the company's 2021-2023 EPS forecast-0.84 EPS 0.41 to 0.52 yuan, the current price corresponding to A-share dynamic PE is-9-18-14 times, H-share dynamic PE-4/8/7 times. We look forward to the subsequent fall in high coal prices, the rise in electricity prices and the increase in the company's outlook to improve profits. With reference to the industry and the company's historical valuation, we give A big H shares 2.0, 1.1 times the target PB, corresponding to the target price of 8.80 yuan / HK $5.90 respectively, all maintain a "buy" rating.