Event: the company issued a performance forecast for 2021: the company expects to achieve revenue of 1.85 billion yuan to 1.9 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year growth rate of more than 60%, a net profit of 18 million yuan to 27 million yuan, and a net profit loss of about 115 million yuan to 124 million yuan after deducting the non-scale net profit.
Q4 high income growth, rising raw materials affect profitability. In 2021, the company shipped more than 400000 drive motors, and the revenue of Xineng vehicle drive motor business is expected to be about 800 million yuan, an increase of more than 250 percent over the same period last year, while that of traditional business is more than 1 billion yuan, an increase of more than 10 percent over the same period last year. According to the performance forecast, the revenue of Q4 alone in 2021 is between 550 million yuan and 600 million yuan, an increase of more than 30% over the same period last year, mainly contributing to the high growth of new energy vehicle-driven motors. The raw materials for driving motors are mainly silicon steel sheet, copper, aluminum and other raw materials, and the proportion of each material is between 10-30%. The previous pricing of superimposed drive motors was generally based on the annual unit of time, so the company's business income of driving motors grew high in 2021, but profitability was greatly affected by raw materials.
The proportion of middle and high-end customers has increased, and the profit inflection point in 2022 is expected. According to the company announcement, based on the company's original SAIC GM Wuling, Geely and other customers, the company has expanded a number of new power and independent brand projects, including XPeng Inc., NIO Inc., Great Wall and so on. and is still continuing to expand the major domestic new forces and independent brand car companies, the company for high-end models supporting high-power drive motor proportion is expected to accelerate. In 2022, the company is expected to transmit the pressure of rising prices of some raw materials downward, the price increase of the company's drive motor products is more certain, the proportion of superimposed high-end products is gradually increasing, and the company is expected to achieve a profit inflection point in 2022. and continue to expand the domestic major new forces and strong independent customers, market share is expected to continue to increase.
The investment in R & D continues to increase, and the technological advantage is obvious. The company's Q1-Q3 R & D expenses in 2019,2020 and 2021 are 83 million yuan, 119 million yuan and 114 million yuan respectively, and the annual average quarterly R & D expenses are about 21 million yuan, 30 million yuan and 38 million yuan respectively. The main directions of the company's R & D investment are flat wire motor industrialization, round wire oil-cooled motor, 8-layer high voltage flat wire motor, high voltage three-in-one and controller, silicon carbide ultra-high voltage electric control and electric drive platform, etc. The company's drive motor power density and motor efficiency and other technical indicators compared with counterparts obvious advantages, and has a large-scale batch production capacity.
Economies of scale and high-end products are expected to improve profitability. According to the company announcement, the company has an existing production capacity of more than 500000 units and plans to expand production of 1 million drive motors, with a total investment of about 500 million yuan, and is expected to continue to increase production expansion plans with the downstream Gaojing demeanor. The factors driving the high growth of the company's motor include: 1) the expansion of new customers, including lemon chaotic models of XPeng Inc., NIO Inc. and Great Wall, etc., and is expected to continue to expand other new power car companies and strong independent brands in China; 2) the improvement of product structure, from the gradual expansion of 20kw motors of some A00 cars to motors close to 200kw power, the motor value has improved significantly. 3) the proportion of dual-motor models has increased, and the company's new power and independent brand models have expanded from single-motor to dual-motor; 4) the permeability of new energy vehicles has accelerated. Generally speaking, due to the high demeanor of the industry and the obvious increase in raw materials, the pressure on the cost side can be transmitted downstream, superimposing the expansion of new customers and the improvement of product structure, the inflection point of the company's profitability in 2022 is expected.
Investment suggestion: from 2021 to 2023, we estimate that the company's operating income will be 17.25,27.95,4.751 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit will be 0.20,1.75 and 319 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.04,0.35,0.64 yuan per share respectively. At present, the stock price corresponding to PE is 285,33,18 times. The company's performance inflection point is clear, maintaining the "buy-A" rating, with a 6-month target price of 15 yuan per share.
Risk tips: new energy sales are less than expected risk; customer expansion is not as expected risk; flat line motor penetration is not as expected as expected risk.
