Focus Today

1. Shanxi Securities: take appropriate defensive allocation in the short term, focusing on the consumer sector that must be selected for undervaluation.

2. Haitong: short-term game anxiety, waiting patiently for the market to stabilize

3. Tianfeng Securities: at present, the valuation of the banking sector is rising at the bottom, and there is considerable room for repair.

4. Northeast Securities: meta Universe represents the important development direction of the future industry and has high investment value.

5. Zhongyuan Securities: in the short term, it is still recommended to carefully close the investment opportunities for the lithium plate, but the overall situation is still not optimistic.

6. CITIC: it is recommended to pay attention to the layout opportunities after the correction of the wind power and photovoltaic market.

Goldman Sachs Group: maintain Ganfeng Lithium's "buy" rating and raise the target price by 7% to HK $246

8. Goldman Sachs Group: first give Kelliying a "buy" rating, with a target price of HK $552.5

9. Morgan Stanley: give CITIC a "overweight" rating, with a target price of HK $24.26

10. Fu Rui: downgrade the target price of Agile Group by 41% to HK $3.26, and its rating from "buy" to "inferior to the market".

Macquarie: slightly raise Geely Automobile's target price to HK $29.2, outperforming the market.

UBS: reiterate ANTA Sports Products's buying rating and downgrade the target price to HK $159,

13. Macquarie: lowered Byd Company Limited's target price from HK $355 to HK $328, outperforming the market.

14. Macquarie: the first rating for Li Auto Inc. to outperform the market, with a target price of HK $151,

15. Macquarie: first awarded XPeng Inc.-W "outperform the market" rating, with a target price of HK $221

Selected viewpoints of research and newspaper

I. Macro-market

1. Shanxi Securities: take appropriate defensive allocation in the short term, focusing on the consumer sector that must be selected for undervaluation.

Shanxi Securities said that specific to the allocation, under the guidance of "steady growth", the real estate policy is expected to increase moderately, leading to a rebound in the valuation of the relevant target, but the direction of structural transformation is clear, and the profitability of small and medium-sized housing enterprises may face a greater test. In addition, we predict that the policy easing in the first quarter is expected to be strengthened, but the extent is relatively limited. After all, "stability" and the protection of people's livelihood are the core objectives of China's policy regulation and control. It is suggested that we should appropriately adopt defensive allocation in the short term, focusing on the consumer sector that must be selected for undervaluation, while further paying attention to the marginal changes in monetary and industrial policies, and tapping structural opportunities.

2. Haitong: short-term game anxiety, waiting patiently for the market to stabilize

Haitong pointed out that strategically, the hot sectors in the market are characterized by rapid rotation and lack of persistence. The short-term game is hot, the overall moneymaking effect of the market is poor, chasing the rise and fall is easy to cause short-term substantial losses. At present, the overall market remains weak, there are still signs of a downward trend, it is suggested that before the index has no obvious signs of stabilizing, investors should control their positions and allocate them in a balanced manner, while avoiding blindly copying the bottom and avoiding sectors that have risen too much in the previous period. On the specific plate, combined with recent hot spots, repeated current epidemic situation, COVID-19 detection and related specific drugs are still short-term deterministic topics. At the same time, with the introduction of the policy, the digital economy, 5G and underlying digital infrastructure related industries are also worthy of attention.

II. Industry plate

3. Tianfeng Securities: at present, the valuation of the banking sector is rising at the bottom, and there is considerable room for repair.

Tianfeng Securities pointed out that in the first quarter of this year, the fiscal "front" superimposed credit lending, credit expansion is in the ascendant. At present, we do not need to demand simultaneous improvement of total volume and structure, but should pay more attention to the leading signals of policy. In December, the growth rate of social finance maintained upward with the decrease of new construction projects at the end of the year and the weakening demand for medium-and long-term loans of residents, and the demand for broad credit policy was relatively strong, so we can further look forward to the effect of credit expansion in the first quarter. More importantly, the wide credit environment is not only conducive to the expansion of banks, but also conducive to the development of non-interest business and credit risk resolution. At present, the valuation of the banking sector is in a state of rebound at the bottom, and there is considerable room for repair. Recommend$Postal Savings Bank of China (01658.HK) $，$China Merchants Bank (03968.HK) $，Ningbo Bank (002142.SZ) $，Wuxi Bank (600908.SH) $，$Industrial Bank (601166.SH) $和Chengdu Bank (601838.SH) $。

4. Northeast Securities: meta Universe represents the important development direction of the future industry and has high investment value.

Northeast Securities believes that meta-universe represents an important development direction of the future industry and has high investment value. Pay attention to the leading Internet manufacturers with strong layout ability and strong technical strength in the emerging fields of meta-universe such as VR / AR.$Tencent (00700.HK) $、$NetEase, Inc-S (09999.HK) $Wait. Pay attention to business potential, excellent UGC game direction, pay attention to$Roblox (RBLX.US) $、Kunlun Wanwei (300418.SZ) $. Pay attention to the pilot project of "blockchain + copyright" in the "National Block chain Innovation and Application pilot", with the National Block chain Project$Oriental Pearl (600637.SH) $Manufacturers with scarce copyright supply capabilities, such as those holding the copyright of a number of key football matches

5. Zhongyuan Securities: in the short term, it is still recommended to carefully close the investment opportunities for the lithium plate, but the overall situation is still not optimistic.

Zhongyuan Securities pointed out that the overall price of raw materials in the short-term upstream rose, including battery-grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, electrolytic cobalt, lithium cobalt, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and the price of electrolyte was unchanged. As of January 11, 2022, lithium battery and gem were valued at 66.80 times and 48.02 times respectively, combined with the prosperity of the industry to maintain the industry "stronger than the market" investment rating. Considering the changes in relevant contents before and after the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, the current level of industry valuation and the impact of subsidy retrograde in 2022 are temporarily uncertain, it is still recommended to carefully close plate investment opportunities in the short term, and a rebound in the previous plate pullback does not rule out, but it should not be over-optimistic.

6. CITIC: it is recommended to pay attention to the layout opportunities after the correction of the wind power and photovoltaic market.

CITIC reported that in the medium and long term, the positioning of carbon neutralization is clear, the long-term goal of carbon peak and energy structure transformation will drive the steady landing of various projects, wind power and photovoltaic as the main direction of large-scale energy transformation, there are no obvious changes in policy dividends and fundamental support, it is suggested to pay attention to the layout opportunities after the market correction. For the field of hydrogen energy, there is an advanced layout of policies and funds, focusing on carbon reduction in the field of industry and transportation in the short and medium term. The technological path of water electrolysis at the end of hydrogen production is highly deterministic, and the output and proportion of green hydrogen may be higher than expected. Focusing hydrogen fuel cell with hydrogen end and hydrogen metallurgy sensitive to carbon cost, it is suggested that continuous attention should be paid to the promotion of green electricity cost reduction, carbon cost and policy benefits to the development of hydrogen energy.

III. Individual stocks

7. Goldman Sachs Group: maintain$Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) $"Buy" rating, target price raised by 7% to HK $246

Goldman Sachs Group maintained Ganfeng Lithium's "buy" rating, raising the target price by 7 per cent from HK $230m to HK $246m, adding it to the convinced buy list. Ganfeng Lithium has unique advantages in capacity and technology for lithium recycling, and its lithium battery recycling market share is expected to reach 50 per cent by 2030, according to the report. In order to reflect that lithium sales will be higher during the recycling process of electric vehicle batteries, the continuous profit forecast for 2023-25 will be raised by 1%, the compound sales forecast for the same period will be raised by 6%, and the long-term (to 2030) sales forecast will be raised by 16%. In addition, the company's new projects are also roughly on schedule, with output expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 31% in 2021-25, helping the company to have a 23% global market share of lithium supply by 2025. In the same period, the self-sufficiency rate will also be increased due to upstream comprehensive projects, streetcar battery material recycling and other positive factors.

Goldman Sachs Group: for the first time$Kellein (06821.HK) $Buy rating with a target price of HK $552.5

Goldman Sachs Group was first given a "buy" rating by Kellein, with a target price of HK $552.5 and an estimated compound annual growth rate of sales and profits of 48 per cent between 2020 and 23. According to the report, Kellein recently signed a large commercial contract with a leading global pharmaceutical company related to novel coronavirus, validating its leading service and delivery capabilities, and recent market volatility, providing an attractive buying opportunity. The bank believes that Kelliying, as the second largest small molecule contract manufacturing and development service provider (CDMO/CMO) in China, can well grasp the growing trend of global outsourcing of manufacturing to China with its leading technology and long-term relationship with the world's leading biopharmaceutical technology companies.

9. Dama: to$CITIC (06030.HK) $"overweight" rating with a target price of HK $24.26

The "overweight" rating given to CITIC by Morgan Stanley is expected to benefit from reduced provision expenditure and to a lesser extent from the growth of the asset management business, with a target price of HK $24.26. According to the report, the company reported that KuaiBao's net profit after tax rose 138 per cent year-on-year to 5.334 billion yuan at the end of last year, better than expected; full-year net profit after tax was higher than the bank's forecast, while revenue rose 40.8 per cent year-on-year to 76.57 billion yuan.

10. Fu Rui: downgrade$Agile Group (03383.HK) $The target price is 41% to 3.26 Hong Kong dollars, and the rating is reduced from "buy" to "inferior to the market".

Fu Rui downgraded Agile Group from "buy" to "below market", lowered its target price by 41% to HK $3.26, and is increasingly likely to be unable to repay its near-term debt due to weak sales. Due to the depletion of its land reserves and weak potential demand for tourism projects, Agile's sales are expected to fall 8 per cent year-on-year in 2022. Agile's asset disposal could damage its core fundamentals, leading to a sharp reduction in its profit margins and a drop in earnings, the report said. The bank cut its profit forecast for the 2021-23 fiscal year by 40 per cent and expects Agile's dividend payout to fall sharply to 10 per cent over the next few years, compared with 35 per cent, 50 per cent previously.

11. Macquarie: micro-rise$Geely Automobile (00175.HK) $The target price is 29.2 Hong Kong dollars, which outperforms the market.

Macquarie released a report that expects Geely Automobile to sell about 93000 new energy vehicles last year, lower than the company's expectations. However, Geely is committed to building a competitive portfolio of new energy vehicles based on its newly launched module hybrid system platform, Raytheon Power. The bank expects Geely's strong Raytheon plug-in hybrid (PHEV) product line and polar krypton brand to grow at an average annual compound growth rate of 146 per cent from 2021 to 2023 and 2.8 per cent and 6.8 per cent of the market share of new energy vehicles in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Macquarie slightly raised the target price of Geely shares from HK $29.15 to HK $29.2, maintained its rating to outperform the market, and lowered the company's profit forecasts for 2021 to 2023 by 13%, 6% and 1%, respectively, to reflect adjustments in sales volume, average product prices and operating expenses.

12. UBS: reiterate$ANTA Sports Products (02020.HK) $Buy rating, downgrade target price to HK $159

UBS said in a report that ANTA Sports Products's management attended the bank's Greater China meeting and shared the latest operating conditions next Wednesday (19) before releasing sales data for the fourth quarter of 2021. The bank quoted ANTA Sports Products's management guidance for annual sales growth of more than 20% in 2021, with Anta and Fila brands growing between 20% and 25% respectively. Looking ahead to 2022, management estimates that the average selling price of Anta brand products will increase by more than 10%, through the introduction of a higher-end product portfolio and the expansion of sales points in high-end shopping malls. Company management said that the impact of the rise in raw material costs on the Anta brand in 2022 should be limited, as the company's products are high-end, and the impact on Fila should be controlled. The bank reiterated Anta's investment rating and lowered its target price from HK $176to HK $159to reflect a 2-3 per cent cut in its 2021-2023 profit forecast.

13. Macquarie: will$Byd Company Limited (01211.HK) $The target price was lowered from HK $355 to HK $328, outperforming the market.

Macquarie said in a report that BYD ranks first in the mainland electric vehicle market, mainly because of its comprehensive new energy vehicle product portfolio and its core positioning in the small and medium-sized new energy vehicle market; its sales are expected to grow at an average annual compound growth rate of 52% from 2021 to 2023, with the dominant position of major groups in low-line cities and a strong product line. The bank maintained BYD's outperformance rating but lowered its target price from HK $355 to HK $328 to reflect a 14 per cent cut in its 2021 profit forecast, but raised its 2022 and 2023 earnings forecasts by 4 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively.

14. Macquarie: the first$Li Auto Inc.-W (02015.HK) $Outperform the market rating, with a target price of HK $151

Macquarie published a research report that Li Auto Inc. has strong sales momentum, product launch plans have prospects, and is rated to outperform the market for the first time. Macquarie said that with Li ONE, Li Auto Inc. performed well in the core market of affordable luxury new energy vehicles (high-end cities), and the company's positioning in low-line cities was better than that of its peers. It is believed that Li Auto Inc. 's strategy of expanding its own sales channels and providing add-on electric vehicle (EREV) models will pave the way for the company's development in low-line cities. The bank expects Li Auto Inc. 's sales and income to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 62.6 per cent and 56.6 per cent respectively from 2021 to 2024, respectively. The share of affordable luxury electric vehicles will reach 20.4 per cent in the 2022 fiscal year, with a target price of HK $151based on the forecast market-to-sales ratio of 5.1x in 2022.

15. Macquarie: first$XPeng Inc.-W (09868.HK) $"outperform the market" rating with a target price of HK $221

According to a research report released by Macquarie, the first XPeng Inc.-W "outperform" rating predicts an average annual compound growth rate of 31.4% for the mainland's electric vehicle sales in the 2021-24 fiscal year, while the company's electric vehicle sales grew at an average annual compound growth rate of 63.1% over the same period. the average annual compound growth rate of income is 66.3%, with a target price of HK $221.