The price increase of the product superimposes the advantage of cost control, and the company's performance may reach an all-time high and maintain the "buy" rating on January 12. On January 12, the company issued a pre-increase announcement for 2021, which is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 30.0-3.3 billion in 2021, an increase of 7227.36% UV 7960.09% over the same period last year, and the annual performance may reach an all-time high. We maintain the company's profit forecast and estimate that the return net profit from 2021 to 2023 is 30.08,40.63 and 4.54 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 0.34,0.46 and 0.51 yuan per share, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 10.6,7.8,7.0 times of PE from 2021 to 2023. Benefiting from the boom of diglyphosate, glyphosate and Lianalkali, the main products since 2021, as well as the company's advantages in safety, environmental protection and cost control, the company has achieved substantial growth in performance. With the continuous commissioning of photovoltaic projects in the future, the company's platform layout advantage is highlighted, growth space is expected, and the "buy" rating is maintained.
Q4 double glyphosate, glyphosate and bialkali continue the high boom, and the company ushered in a sharp improvement in performance. according to the company announcement, the company expects 2021 net profit to increase by 29.59-3.259 billion yuan over the same period last year, up 7227.36% by 7960.09% over the same period last year. It is estimated that the non-net profit from home deduction in 2021 will increase by 26.21-2.921 billion yuan over the same period last year, an increase of 687.36% 766.04% over the same period last year. Since 2021, due to the improvement of environmental protection requirements and the further clearance of backward production capacity caused by the epidemic, capacity expansion has been restricted, superimposed downstream demand growth, the company's double glyphosate, glyphosate, co-alkali products are booming upward. According to Baichuan Yingfu data, 2021Q4 soda ash, ammonium chloride, diglyphosate and glyphosate continued to enjoy a high boom. The average market prices in the fourth quarter were 3322.9 yuan / ton, 1136.4 yuan / ton, 4.23 yuan / ton and 7.87 million yuan / ton, respectively, with a month-on-month ratio of + 37.05%, 5.62%, 62.25%, 50.19%. The company has 1.1 million tons / year soda ash / ammonium chloride, 58,000 tons / year glyphosate, 200,000 tons / year double glyphosate production capacity, with southwest soda ash giant and double glyphosate global leading position ushered in a substantial increase in performance.
The green energy subsidiary is going to be spun off and listed, the photovoltaic project is progressing smoothly, and the growth of the company is highlighted. According to the company announcement, the Chongqing 8GW photovoltaic packaging material and products project and the 10GW ultra-efficient single crystal solar wafer project (start-up scale 1-2GW) are expected to be completed and put into production in 2022-2023. By the end of 2021, Wujun Optical Energy, a holding subsidiary, has completed the share reform. In order to make Wujun Optical Energy professional and focus on the field of green energy, and to achieve better and stronger development in this field, the company intends to start the related planning work of Wujun Solar Energy IPO. We believe that with the orderly progress of photovoltaic glass and single crystal silicon wafer projects, the integration of the company's new energy materials industry line is deepening, and the development prospect is promising.
Risk tips: product prices fall, production capacity is not as expected, policy implementation is not as expected, and so on.