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重磅规划来袭,数字经济到底是什么,哪些行业将受益?

Heavy plans are coming. What exactly is the digital economy, and which industries will benefit?

華爾街見聞 ·  Jan 13, 2022 12:37

On January 13, optical communications and other sectors were active.

On the news, according to a report by Xinhua News Agency on January 12, the State Council recently issued the "14th five-year Plan for the Development of the Digital economy," proposing that the added value of the core industries of the digital economy will account for 10% of the GDP by 2025.

Wanlian Securities said that at present, a new generation of information technology, such as big data, cloud computing and artificial intelligence, has become increasingly mature, providing a sufficient foundation for the development of the digital economy, which is expected to usher in a new round of acceleration.

As for the communications segment, Minsheng Securities pointed out that the Plan focuses on four major information network infrastructure optimization and upgrading projects, including: 1) promoting the expansion and speed up of the optical fiber network; 2) accelerating the large-scale deployment of the 5G network; 3) promoting the large-scale deployment of IPv6 applications; 4) accelerating the upgrading of spatial information infrastructure, and the communications sector to meet the overall benefits.

What are the main contents of this "plan"?

According to the official notice of the Xinhua News Agency, the plan mainly oversees the overall situation from a large aspect, involving many industries. In addition to 5G, semiconductors and new energy vehicles, 6G, edge computing, machine vision and satellite Internet are also mentioned in the article.

For example, "speed up the implementation of the" East and West "project, strengthen edge computing capacity for specific scenarios, increase support for research and development of 6G technology, speed up the layout of satellite communication networks, and so on. "

The data show that the digital economy is a new economic form developed by relying on data elements after the agricultural economy and industrial economy. The "Plan" points out that during the 14th five-year Plan period, the digital economy should initially complete the market construction of data elements and improve the level of industrial digitization and digital industrialization.

The goal is that by 2025, the added value of the core industries of the digital economy will account for 10% of GDP and enter a period of comprehensive expansion; by 2035, the digital economy will move towards a period of prosperity and maturity, and the development foundation of the digital economy and the development level of the industrial system will be in the forefront of the world.

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What is the digital economy?

According to the Soochow Securities Research report, as a relatively broad concept, economic forms that directly or indirectly use data to guide resources to play a role and promote the development of productive forces can be brought into the category of digital economy.

Technical level, including big data, cloud computing, Internet of things, block chain, artificial intelligence, 5G communications and other emerging technologies; application level, "new retail", "new manufacturing" are its typical representatives.

Specifically, the digital economy includes four angles, namely, digital industrialization, industrial digitization, digital governance and data value.

From the perspective of the internal structure of the digital economy, industrial digitization currently occupies the dominant position of the digital economy, with the proportion rising from 49.1% in 2005 to 80.2% in 2019.

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Why is the digital economy so important?

First, there is a high degree of policy support for major national strategies.

As an important driving force to promote social prosperity and improve national competitiveness, the government attaches great importance to the digital economy.

In April 2020, the "opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on building a more perfect market-oriented allocation system and mechanism of factors" was released to the public, and the data was written into the central document as a new type of production factor for the first time. Along with the traditional elements such as land, labor, capital and technology, the data was pushed to an unprecedented new height and was praised as the "oil" of the fourth scientific and technological revolution.

In March 2021, Xinhua News Agency issued the 14th five-year Plan and the outline of the long-term goals for 2035, especially adding "digital economy indicators" and for the first time put forward a new economic indicator of the proportion of added value of core industries in digital economy in GDP, which clearly requires that the proportion of added value of core industries in digital economy in GDP should be increased from 7.8% in 2020 to 10%.

At the Central Economic work Conference in December 2021, the state also clearly stressed the need to speed up digital transformation and promote the upgrading of traditional industries.

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Second, the scale of the digital economy is huge.

On the whole, from 2005 to 2020, the scale of China's digital economy increased rapidly from 2.6 trillion yuan to 39.2 trillion yuan, which has formed a huge market, with an annual compound growth rate of 20%.

At the same time, the growth rate of China's digital economy continues to be high, with a growth rate of 15.6% in 2019, much higher than the 7.3% growth rate of GDP. On the one hand, it reflects the pulling effect of the digital economy on GDP and reflects the achievements of national policies and enterprises' concentrated investment in scientific and technological innovation in recent years. On the other hand, it also shows that the digital economy is in a stage of rapid development.

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Which industries are expected to benefit?

In addition to the previously mentioned communications and other industries, Tianfeng Securities pointed out that the development of the digital economy needs to enhance the ability to access and use data, which will promote the rapid development of semiconductors and software and information services industries.

Soochow Securities pointed out that Shangyun is the basis of digital transformation, and cloud computing as an important infrastructure for the transformation of the digital economy is expected to benefit directly. In addition, with the advancement of enterprise digitization process, domestic enterprises need ERP to provide complex management support more than ever before, and the process of enterprise cloud will also bring more space for the development of ERP industry.

Ping an Securities pointed out that since the fourth quarter of 2021, relevant plans for the digital economy have been issued continuously, supporting and guiding the digital economy to develop by leaps and bounds through key projects, special projects, finance, taxation and finance and other supporting measures.

It believes that during the 14th five-year Plan period, investment in infrastructure such as 5G and fixed-line broadband will be promoted in an orderly manner, and the layout of data centers will be optimized. The localization of integrated circuits, operating systems, industrial software and other fields is expected to accelerate, and the supply chain integrity of key industries such as 5G, integrated circuits, new energy vehicles, artificial intelligence and industrial Internet will be improved. Industrial digitization is also facing huge opportunities, and the digital transformation in the fields of manufacturing, agriculture, commerce, logistics, finance and energy will be accelerated. At the same time, the demand for information security products and services will also maintain rapid growth.

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