Investment summary
The acquisition of LP+LPB and holding of ADT, light power semiconductor dicing machine to achieve domestic commercialization.
Guangli Technology started from the coal safety monitoring business, with core technical strength to establish a leading position in the industry, business gross profit margin as high as 70%. In 2016-2021, he acquired LP, the inventor of semiconductor dicing machine, and LPB, the core parts of dicing machine, and controlled Israel ADT, the third largest dicing machine company in the world, to enter the field of semiconductor rear closed test equipment dicing machine, becoming the only two companies in the world, the only one in China that owns both dicing machine and air spindle technology. In 2021, the company achieved a rapid transformation from scratch, from 1 to N, forming a strategic layout in which safety monitoring business and semiconductor equipment business keep abreast of each other.
The dicing machine market is highly monopolized overseas, and the rapid development of domestic closed testing industry brings opportunities to break the situation. According to the forecast of SEMI, the global semiconductor packaging equipment market is about 6.99 billion US dollars in 2021. According to Huajing Information Network, the slicing machine accounts for about 15% of the global semiconductor packaging equipment market structure. We assume that the proportion is constant, and the proportion of the market for consumables such as slicer equipment and blades is about 6:4. It is estimated that the overall market space for consumables such as slicers and blades in 2021 will be about 1.748 billion US dollars, or about 11.184 billion RMB. The global slicing machine market is highly monopolized by overseas manufacturers DISCO and Tokyo Precision. The global market share of DISCO in 2020 is more than 70%. In addition to ADT's less than 5% share of the domestic slicing equipment market, most of the rest of the market share is also occupied by DISCO and Tokyo Precision. The share of domestic manufacturers is very low, and there is a lot of room for import substitution.
The self-developed dicing machine has achieved a technological breakthrough, and the localized machine has entered an expansion harvest period. Through overseas mergers and acquisitions, the company has achieved a comprehensive grasp of key technologies from dicing machine equipment to core components air spindle, and has also accumulated rich customer market resources. The company actively carries out fixed growth projects (annual production capacity of 500 dicing machines) and convertible bond projects (annual production capacity of 5200 spindles) to promote the construction of domestic production bases, and the global R & D and production layout based on domestic radiation is gradually taking shape. With the smooth launch of localized models 6230, 8230 and 6110, superimposed by the current backlog of limited production capacity of overseas leading manufacturers, the company is the only domestic supplier of slicing equipment with advantages, directly targeting overseas leaders. Domestic alternative development ushered in the best window.
Profit Forecast and Investment suggestion
For the first time, coverage gives a "buy" rating. We estimate that the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 is 1.26,2.52 and 390 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 0.47,0.94 and 1.45 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE values of current stock prices from 2021 to 2023 are 68.01,33.82 and 21.88 times, respectively. We are optimistic that the company's self-developed localized scribing models and consumables benefit from technological breakthroughs and cost reduction and other factors to rapidly enhance their competitive advantage, and usher in a good opportunity for domestic substitution in the face of rapid growth in the industry and insufficient production capacity of overseas leaders. At the same time, relying on the self-research and expansion of the air spindle of core components, we will further build the core equipment platform for semiconductor components and open up the space for future growth.
Risk hint
Semiconductor closed testing industry growth, slicing machine and spindle capacity expansion, fierce competition in the industry.