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美联储正重复2018年的模式,警惕美债发出的信号

The Federal Reserve is repeating the 2018 model and is wary of the signals sent by US debt

Wind ·  Jan 13, 2022 07:43

Source: Wind

Market sentiment has picked up, and investors are beginning to wonder whether the stock market is ready to get rid of the bumpy start of 2022.

The S & P; rose slightly on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell vowed that the Fed would use its "tools" to control inflation without harming the economy.Even though the data showed that consumer prices rose at their fastest annual pace since 1982, the three major indexes of U. S. stocks closed higher overnight.

But some investors believe that a full rebound in the market may not be fully here yet.Jani Ziedins, a well-known investor in CrackedMarket blog, said: "the rebound from the oversold level is often difficult and fast, and this week's intraday reversal of 150 points is definitely rapid." That is to say, more often, the third rally is the real trading opportunity, which means we may see several tests of lows before all this is over. "

In addition, Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine, known as the "King of Bond", released his forecast for the coming year. He thinksThere is a downside to the stock market, which is "supported by QE" and is now facing Fed retrenchment, and Mr Powell sounded "more hawkish" every time he spoke.

"it looks like Powell is repeating the 2018 formula: ending QE and raising official short-term interest rates," Gundlach said. He said he had not "predicted a recession" but thought these pressures were forming.

Gundlach further noted that the yield curve had been "quite strongly flattened" and was "approaching the point where it indicates economic weakness." At this stage,The yield curve no longer sends the signal 'Don't worry, be happy'. Instead, it is sending a signal of 'attention'."

(photo source: Wind)

Gundlach highlighted the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey, saying the findings "look like a bit of a recession". Soaring car prices may be one of the culprits, because prices have climbed a lot, he said. "people don't think now is a good time to buy a car, if they can find a car. The surge in prices has even made it possible for people to make money by speculating on cars, he said.

Casey Wood, chief executive of ARK Investment, also warned of a "disaster" in the used and new car markets. The fund manager said the housing market was being driven by low supply and should be supported as long as mortgage rates were low. She is neutral on gold and believes the dollar will continue to weaken.

Gundlach believes thatAmerican stocks are expensive relative to other places. He points out that the European market is his favorite in 2021 and looks set to do well in 2022.

Reviewing Gundlach's forecasts for 2021, the manager proposed a "successful" portfolio model: half cash and government bonds, 25 per cent equities, mainly in emerging markets and Asia, and 25 per cent physical assets, such as gold or property, to hedge against higher inflation. He expects U. S. stocks to lag behind the rest of the world, while inflation and market volatility are rising.

The MSCI emerging markets index fell 5% in 2021, while the SPDR securities 500 ETF trust rebounded 27%. Real estate did prove to be a bet, even though gold fell 4% in 2021, and Treasuries performed poorly that year.

Edit / lydia

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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