The performance growth in 2021 is expected to exceed 350%, and the performance in the fourth quarter is at an all-time high. The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 11.7-1.25 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 350%-381% over the same period last year, and 11.64-1.244 billion yuan after deduction. The performance of the fourth quarter alone is about 4.3-510 million yuan, a record high for a single quarter. The main reasons for the substantial increase in performance include: (1) substantial increase in production and marketing of carbonate products; (2) continuous optimization of product structure; (3) basically self-supply of propylene oxide, the main raw material, to enhance product competitiveness; and (4) continuous cost reduction and efficiency enhancement.
Battery-grade solvents continue to be booming, and the price and profit center is expected to remain high. At present, the price of battery-grade solvent is basically stable, and the market price of DMC is about 13000 yuan. Thanks to the growth of demand for high nickel and the relatively limited supply, the price of EMC and DEC is still more than 27000 yuan, and the solvent profit is still considerable. Looking forward to 2022, as the industry hexafluorine, additives and other new production capacity is the first to be put into production, and the release of solvent capacity is limited, the solvent may become a relative deficiency in the electrolyte industry chain, while the Shida Quanzhou project and the technical renovation project of this part will soon be put into production. the company will continue to benefit from the prosperity of the solvent industry.
The new material industry chain continues to extend, and platform companies are gradually taking shape. On the one hand, the company continues to increase the layout of the electrolyte industry chain, including electrolyte / solvent / hexafluorine / additives and other links, the implementation of in-depth integrated development strategy, the future competitiveness of electrolyte is expected On the other hand, the company's horizontal layout of new materials such as silicon-based negative electrodes and wet electronic chemicals is committed to creating the second and third growth curves in addition to electrolytes, the company's profit growth is expected to blossom more in the future, and its overall competitiveness will continue to improve.
We forecast that the company's earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.15,10.48,12.67 yuan respectively (the previous forecast is 7.52,10.48,11.46 yuan respectively). The reason for the downward forecast in 2021 is that the company carries out maintenance in the second half of the year, which affects the annual shipment. at the same time, the average price of solvents decreased slightly, affecting the overall gross profit. 2023 the reason for the increase in performance is due to the technical transformation of the company, the addition of some solvent capacity, and the slight increase in the price of the long-term solvent hub, which leads to an increase in profits), with reference to the comparable company's valuation level in 2022. Shi Da Shenghua is given a price-to-earnings ratio of 25 times in 2022, corresponding to a target price of 262 yuan, maintaining a buy rating!
Risk hint
The sales of new energy vehicles fall short of expectations, which affects the sales of solvent products, and the fluctuation of upstream raw material prices affects solvent profitability.