On January 10th, domestic futures closed up more or less, with soda ash up nearly 4%, glass and stainless steel up more than 3%, pulp, urea, Shanghai nickel and rubber 20 up more than 2%, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon and rubber up nearly 2%. In terms of decline, live pigs and peanuts fell more than 3%, while styrene, PVC and iron ore fell more than 2%.
National Development and Reform Commission: pig prices are expected to rebound slightly after bottoming out in the short term, but the room for rebound is very limited.
As of January 5, 2022, the national pig feed price this week was 5.09, down 1.93% from the previous month. According to the current price and cost, the profit of pig breeding head will be 150.18 yuan in the future. Domestic pig prices are mainly down this week.
After New Year's Day, the consumer market was weak, and the operating rate of butcher enterprises declined at a high level. at the same time, the breeders were worried about the future market, and their enthusiasm for going out of the fence increased, the market supply of pigs was abundant, and pig prices continued to decline.
As pig prices fall to a relatively low level, the sentiment of cherishing sales in the northern market becomes stronger, and pig prices are expected to rebound slightly after hitting bottom in the short term, but the room for rebound is very limited, and the possibility of a small drop in pig feed price is still greater.
Institutions comment on the data of MPOB monthly report
According to South China Futures Analysis, the MPOB report showed that horse palm production fell 11.26 per cent month-on-month to 1.45 million tons in December and is expected to fall 8.6 per cent to 1.49 million tons; exports fell 3.48 per cent to 1.41 million tons, expected to fall 4.9 per cent to 1.4 million tons; and inventories fell 12.88 per cent to 1.58 million tons and 4.9 per cent to 1.73 million tons. Inventory fell more than expected, affecting the profit. The current price is basically reflected in the market, so we need to pay more attention to the monthly USDA supply and demand report released at 1: 00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday for further confirmation.
Fu Bo, a senior researcher on agricultural products in Guotai Junan Futures, said that the monthly report released by MPOB shows that production and inventory are lower than market expectations, exports are higher than market expectations, consumption is much higher than expected, and the report is profitable. Based on the inventory of 1.583 million tons at the end of December 2021, even if Malay production begins to recover, it will be very difficult for Malaysian palm oil stocks to return to more than 2 million tons in the first quarter of 2022. The lack of inventory pressure will continue to support palm oil prices in producing areas. It is expected that palm oil prices in the first quarter will still be strong. Palm oil 05 is expected to hit the previous high of 9100PUE 9300, driven by the rising cost of long-term imports. In addition, at this stage, international oil crops are still trading South American soybean production, the overall trend of oil is also strong, so it is suggested that palm oil 05 bargain-seeking long thinking is the main idea.
Interpretation of CITIC Construction Investment Futures: the MPOB monthly report shows that horse brown produced 1.45 million tons in December 2021, down 11.26% from the previous month, lower than the three major institutions' estimates but in line with MPOA estimates; exports of 1.41 million tons, down 3.48% from the previous month, better than the market's expectations of a decline of 5-6%; month-end inventory of 1.58 million tons, down 12.88% from the previous month, lower than all mainstream market estimates. The overall MPOB report is more profitable than expected, laying the foundation for a strong operation of palm oil prices in the medium term, palm oil is expected to usher in a new wave of rise in the afternoon, and continue to pay attention to horse palm production and export data.