Zhitong Financial APP learned that CITIC released a research report saying that the policy in 2022 may continue to bring east wind to the development of the hydrogen energy industry, and all levels of supporting policies are expected to continue to stack. It is expected that the fuel cell heavy truck will have an obvious volume, and the promotion of new technologies and new application scenarios is also expected to give birth to a new track. It is suggested that the investment should pay attention to three main lines: first, the volume of the industrial chain driven by the growth of fuel cell heavy trucks should be paid attention to.$Meijin Energy (000723.SZ) $、$Xiongtao Co., Ltd. (002733.SZ) $、$Yihuatong-U (688339.SH) $The benefit standard of the improvement of the localization rate of proton exchange membrane$Dongyue Group (00189.HK) $Second, under the advanced construction of the hydrogen filling station, we should pay attention to the full layout of the hydrogen energy storage-transportation-addition link.$CIMC Enrico (03899.HK) $、$snowman shares (002639.SZ) $、$Ice Wheel Environment (000811.SZ) $The third is to dynamically pay attention to the small and medium-sized companies that have newly entered the field of hydrogen energy.
CITIC's main points are as follows:
The policy system is becoming more and more perfect, and the east wind of the policy is getting stronger and stronger.
Since the second half of 2021, the policy of hydrogen energy industry has been implemented one after another. at the end of August, five central ministries jointly launched the work of fuel cell demonstration application, and defined the specific mechanism of the three demonstration urban agglomerations and subsidies at the central level. Subsequently, the local government also followed up and issued rules on industrial planning and supporting subsidies. Looking forward to the next 1 ~ 2 years, there will be a continuous superposition of central and local policies, the urban agglomeration of fuel cell demonstration applications is expected to expand, and the industrial top-level design is also expected to be introduced. The establishment of the "rules of the game" and policy system in the industry is expected to bring the east wind to the development of the industry and help to encourage the leading enterprises with large-scale and leading technology to stand out.
The highlight of the promotion of heavy trucks or vehicles in 2022 is expected to be moderately ahead of the construction of hydrogenation stations.
Under the new subsidy policy, the expansion layout of fuel cell vehicle enterprises may be more active. at the same time, under the encouragement of the goal of "double carbon", local governments and state-owned enterprises are also expected to actively promote the development of hydrogen energy industrialization and the landing of projects. We estimate that the new increment of fuel cell vehicles in 2022 is expected to reach the level of 8000,000,000 vehicles, in which hydrogen heavy trucks will have obvious promotion advantages both in terms of subsidy amount and application scenarios. It is estimated that the sales of passenger cars / heavy trucks / logistics vehicles will reach 1,000,3500pm respectively in 2022, and there is also expected to be a pilot promotion of 50,100 passenger vehicles. The number of fuel cell vehicles will also promote the construction of hydrogenation stations, which may be moderately advanced under the catalyst of the wave of new energy infrastructure.
Green hydrogen and its application in industry may make a new breakthrough in 2022.
Under the "double carbon" goal, it is expected that the promotion of green hydrogen in 2022 will be further deepened. On the one hand, with the increase of new energy power stations, the energy storage demand may lead to an increase in some green hydrogen production projects; on the other hand, the demand for green hydrogen in the industrial sector is also expected to increase. We predict that the sales volume of electrolytic cell equipment may exceed 1GW in 2022, corresponding to the market size of 30 ~ 5 billion yuan. The application of new technologies of hydrogen energy is mainly reflected in the field of industrial carbon reduction, these technologies have made rapid progress in 2021, such as hydrogen metallurgy, natural gas mixed with hydrogen power generation, it is expected that new breakthroughs in 2022 application is also expected to give birth to a new track.
Risk factors
The progress of R & D and application of key technologies is slow, and the implementation of industrial support policies is lower than expected.
This article is edited from the study of CITIC, author:Zu Guopeng, Wang Zhe, Yuan Jianchong, Teng GuanxingZhitong Financial Editor: Huang Xiaodong.