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每日研报精选丨高盛:中国股票大幅回调后迎来「希望」;富瑞:科网股回调后提供切入点,首选腾讯及京东等

Daily Research Report Selection丨Goldman Sachs: China's stocks ushered in “hope” after a sharp correction; Furui: Technet stocks provided entry points after a pullback, preferred Tencent and Jingdong

富途資訊 ·  Jan 7, 2022 09:11

"Daily Research selection" closely follows the latest research trends of institutions, insights and combs the views of the most representative big cities, industries and individual stocks, provides Niu you with third-party institutional analysis and rating reference, and helps Niu you to provide an overview of investment banking trends. Easy to grasp investment opportunities!

Research newspaper focus

1. Fu Rui reiterated its optimistic view on the future of science and technology stocks and the preferred stock in 2022, including BABA-SW (09988), JD.com Group-SW (09618), Meituan-W (03690), Tencent (00700), NetEase, Inc-S (09999), Kuaishou Technology-W (01024), Bilibili Inc.-SW (09626) and so on.

2. Goldman Sachs Group strategist expects Chinese stocks to perform well after a sharp correction last year and recommends buying hard-hit Internet companies.

2. Anxin International said that China Mobile Limited (00941) has sound performance, cheap valuation, high dividend yield and gradual verification of the logic of marginal improvement in fundamentals, and the recently announced large buyback plan is expected to improve shareholder returns.

3. China Merchants International is optimistic about the fulfillment of orders after the gradual release of Byd Company Limited's (01211) production capacity, the continuous outbreak of pure electricity + DMi product lines, accelerated breakthroughs in the field of intelligence, and the sales target of 1.5 million new energy vehicles in 2022.

4. Xiaomo said that the market may have different reactions to China Resources Power Holdings's (00836) renewable energy business. According to media reports, the company is considering spinning off its renewable energy business to list in Hong Kong, raising US $1 billion to US $2 billion.

5. Guotai Junan International said Sinotruk (03808) was valued at its lowest level since 2018, believing that there were trading opportunities and that the worst was over.

Selected viewpoints of research and newspaper

I. Macro-market

  • Goldman Sachs Group strategist: Chinese stocks ushered in "hope" after a sharp correction, and it is recommended to buy science and technology stocks.

Goldman Sachs Group strategist expects Chinese stocks to perform well after a sharp correction last year and recommends buying hard-hit Internet companies. "the Chinese equity cycle may transition from the 'despair' phase to the 'hope' phase," the strategist led by Kinger Lau wrote in the report. Lau stressed that the MSCI China index tends to perform well after a "significant" correction. He points out that the MSCI China index has almost never reported negative returns for two consecutive years since 2002, with the exception of 2016, which recorded a return of-1.6 per cent after a 10 per cent correction in 2015. He also expects greater clarity and improvement in regulation, which bodes well for the Internet industry. In terms of monetary policy, China is "likely to become the only major economy in the world to gradually relax in 2022", which is another positive for the stock market, Lau said.

  • CICC: if raising interest rates does not depress inflation, the Fed may respond by shrinking its table.

China International Capital Corporation report pointed out that if raising interest rates 2-3 times can not depress inflation, then the Fed is likely to shrink the table to deal with inflation. In this radical scenario, the turmoil in US stocks is likely to increase significantly. Historically, rising inflation has been bad for US stock market valuations. when inflation remains in the range of 4-6 per cent, the average price-to-earnings ratio is only half of what it was during the normal period (that is, 1-3 per cent). Us bond yields will also rise significantly above the benchmark. In the Fed's aggressive scenario, safe-haven demand could push the dollar index above 100.

  • Huaxi Securities: the pace of the Fed's interest rate hike may be lower than market expectations

Us inflation is likely to peak in the first quarter, and the subsequent reduction in inflationary pressure will further reduce market expectations of raising interest rates. The logic of this round of high US inflation is that fiscal stimulus (deficit expansion and deficit monetization) pushes up monetary growth (M2) and leads to higher inflation. The current round of monetary growth peaked in February 2021, and it is inferred from past leading points that US inflation may peak in the first quarter of 2022, while the downward shift of the oil price center will further reduce upward pressure on US inflation. Therefore, the pace of this round of interest rate increases may be lower than market expectations, and it is expected that the time point of rate increases may be at the end of 2022 or 2023, and the number of rate increases may be 1 or 2 times.

II. Industry plate

  • Fu Rui: science and technology stocks after the pullback to provide a starting point, preferred Tencent and JD.com Group-SW and so on

Fu Rui said that it reiterated its optimistic view about the future of China's science and technology stocks and its preferred stocks in 2022, including BABA-SW (09988), JD.com Group-SW (09618), Meituan-W (03690) and Dada Nexus Limited (DADA.US) in the e-commerce sector in mainland China; and Tencent (00700), NetEase, Inc-S (09999), Kuaishou Technology-W (01024) and Bilibili Inc.-SW (09626) in the entertainment sector in mainland China. The report noted that the share prices of mainland Chinese tech stocks showed a correction yesterday, which was not expected to affect the business strategies of internet participants, and that the price correction provided an entry point to capture the long-term industry outlook.

  • JPMorgan Chase & Co: expected Neifang stocks continue to lose to the market, the industry's first choice is China Resources Land, Longhu and COSCO, etc.

JPMorgan Chase & Co published a research report predicting that inner housing stocks will continue to outperform the market, mainly due to the structural decline in the market; the weak sales outlook leads to a decline in the profit outlook; the problem of internal housing liquidity is difficult to solve in the short term; and policy easing cannot stimulate growth. The bank added that although loose policy may be stimulating in the short term, with more bond defaults in inner houses, weak sales (down more than 40% year on year in the first quarter of this year), and disappointing results for fiscal year 2021 to be announced in March this year (earnings may fall by 6%, and cut dividends), housing stocks are expected to be weak in the first quarter of this year, but if market conditions improve thereafter It is believed that share prices will recover in the second and third quarters. Historically, the bank said it took six to 11 months for easing to rebound in sales. China Resources Land (01109), Longhu (00960) and COSCO (00688) are preferred in the industry.

  • Citic Construction Investment: the reform of state-owned enterprises will continue to move forward steadily, and the reform dividend may be centrally released.

Citic Construction Investment pointed out that 2022 is a three-year link between the past and the future in the reform of state-owned enterprises, and the goal of the reform of state-owned enterprises is expected to be clear. According to the current completion rate of 70 per cent, 2022 of the reform of state-owned enterprises still has 30 per cent of the workload, which is expected to be completed before the 20th CPC National Congress. At the end of the three-year reform of state-owned enterprises, the reform of state-owned enterprises will continue to move forward steadily, and the reform dividend may be concentrated. According to the orientation of the three-year action, after the framework construction period of 2014-2016 and the pilot and extension period of 2017-2019, the reform of state-owned enterprises from 2020 to 2022 will be fully launched, and the reform contents with excellent results in the early stage will be continued and strengthened. The reform dividend may be centrally released.

  • CITIC: it is expected that the fuel cell heavy truck will have an obvious volume.

CITIC pointed out that the policy in 2022 may continue to bring wind to the development of the industry, and supporting policies at all levels are expected to continue to stack. It is expected that the fuel cell heavy truck will have an obvious volume, and the promotion of new technologies and new application scenarios is also expected to give birth to a new track. We suggest that the investment should pay attention to three main lines: first, the volume of the industrial chain driven by the growth of fuel cell heavy trucks, Meijin Energy, Xiongtao shares, Yihuatong, Dongyue Group, which benefits from the improvement of the localization rate of proton exchange membranes, and the second is the advance construction of hydrogen filling stations. Pay attention to the full layout of hydrogen storage-transportation-plus links in the CIMC Enrico, snowman shares, ice wheel environment The third is to dynamically pay attention to the small and medium-sized companies that have newly entered the hydrogen energy field.

  • CITIC: infrastructure is expected to achieve high single-digit growth in the first quarter

CITIC pointed out that public finances were overcharged in 2021 and special bonds were issued later, so it is estimated that about 1.4 trillion of the funds will be carried forward to 2022. In addition, 1.46 trillion yuan of local special bonds were approved in advance by the government before the end of the year, which will also lead to infrastructure growth in the first year. Combined with the actual situation and data analysis, the growth rate of full-caliber capital expenditure for infrastructure construction leads the growth rate of infrastructure construction for six months. We expect that infrastructure construction will achieve high single-digit growth in the first quarter, and the growth rate of infrastructure for the whole year will also be eye-catching, which is significantly better than that of the same period last year and the whole year.

  • CITIC: it is suggested that priority be given to the targets of military industrial stocks that are on a long track and have a reasonable valuation.

CITIC research newspaper pointed out that there has been a pullback in the military industrial sector recently, and we believe that the short-term adjustment is mainly due to capital behavior rather than fundamental reasons. Now the investment logic of the military industry has turned to "fundamental drive". Under the premise that the fundamentals of the industry are not affected, short-term adjustment will bring faster configuration window and greater profit space. It is recommended that priority be given to targets that are on a long track and are reasonably valued.

III. Individual stocks

According to media reports, China Resources Power Holdings (00836) is considering spinning off its renewable energy business to list in Hong Kong, raising between US $1 billion and US $2 billion, Xiaomo said. Xiaomo said the market may be divided on the reaction of China Resources Power Holdings's renewable energy business. On the positive side, the bank believes that listing in Hong Kong will speed up the spin-off process and support the capital expenditure of the business, as China Resources Power Holdings may have negative cash flow in the next few years. and can reduce the comprehensive discount to the company due to the mix of coal and renewable energy. However, some investors have been expecting China Resources Power Holdings to spin off its renewable energy business and list in A-shares to bring higher valuations. Xiaomo said that it takes a short time to list in Hong Kong, while the process of spin-off and listing of A-shares may take as long as a year or more, and China Resources Power Holdings already has about 23 gigawatts of wind or solar energy projects, which means that capital expenditure will be greater in the next two to three years. Therefore, it is necessary to speed up the process of spin-off and listing to prepare for this.

According to Morgan Stanley, XIAOMI Group-W (01810) aims to achieve positive growth in smartphone shipments in 2022, mainly due to the expected increase in overseas market share, increased offline penetration of the local market and improved parts supply shortages. The report said that IoT business also has the opportunity to achieve positive growth, mainly due to improved TV demand, strong growth momentum of XIAOMI tablet and huge opportunities in overseas markets. The growth of Internet business will continue to be driven by the continued growth of monthly active users and the increase in average income per user. In addition, XIAOMI electric car is expected to be mass produced in 2024, and the company will release XIAOMI electric vehicle prototype from the end of 2022 to the beginning of 2023.

China Merchants released a research report saying that to maintain Byd Company Limited (01211.HK) "buy" rating, optimistic about the gradual release of its production capacity after the fulfillment of orders, pure electricity + DMi product line continues to break out, accelerated breakthroughs in the field of intelligence, and the sales target of new energy vehicles in 2022 is as high as 1.5 million. The target price is maintained at HK $385 (2.9x2022EP/S) according to the segment plus total valuation method.

According to Anxin International, the net profit of China Mobile Limited (00941) from 2021 to 2023 is expected to be 1142,1233 / 133.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, 7.9%, 8.6%, sound performance, low valuation, high dividend yield, and gradual verification of the logic of marginal improvement in fundamentals. The recently announced large repurchase plan is expected to improve shareholder returns. China Mobile Limited officially returned to A shares and landed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange today under the stock symbol (600941.SH). The issue price is 57.58 yuan per share, the price-to-earnings ratio is 12.02 times, and the number of shares issued is 846 million shares. If the green shoes are fully exercised, the total number of shares issued will be expanded to 972.6 million shares, raising a total of about 56 billion yuan, making it the largest A-share IPO project in the past decade. The company's A-share offering is priced at a 46.6 per cent premium to yesterday's closing price of Hong Kong shares.

Everbright overseas said that in view of the continued increase in 5G user penetration, the continuous promotion of B-end business and the effective control of cost and expense side, it is predicted that China Mobile Limited (00941) 21-23 net profit of 1160 shock 1285 / 143.3 billion RMB, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 7.6%, 10.8%, 11.5%, and the late performance improvement trend of operators has been verified quarter by quarter, which is expected to drive the opportunity of comprehensive revaluation of the sector. The A-share listing of the company has attracted many strategic investors, which can be divided into four categories: 1) national investment platform, including social security fund, national survey fund, Guoxin investment, etc.; 2) large central enterprises, including State Grid, State Energy Group, etc.; 3) large insurance institutions, including China Life Insurance Company Limited (02628), PICC (01339), etc.; 4) JD.com and other institutions. Among them, the participation of insurance funds that pay attention to stable income reflects the market's recognition of the company's high dividend and low valuation (the 20-year dividend rate is 63%. Do not consider buyback, A-share issue price corresponding to 22-year dividend yield 6% / Hong Kong stock current price 49.6 HK $49.6 versus 22-year dividend yield 8%), and confidence in the company's development prospects. At the same time, the company announced a buyback before the A-share listing, demonstrating the company's medium-and long-term confidence.

Guotai Junan International said the industry is still full of challenges, while the positive factors are government support for infrastructure investment and Sinotruk's (03808) strong product portfolio. The bank expects the company to outperform the market and remain the industry leader. Valuations are at their lowest level since 2018 and believe there are trading opportunities and the worst is over. Sinotruk outperforms the market in 2021. In a challenging environment, Sinotruk's sales fell only 2.9 per cent year-on-year to 285300 vehicles in 2021, the best-performing company in 2021. Such a good performance makes Sinotruk the second largest heavy truck manufacturer in China, after FAW. Sinotruk's market share rose 2.4 percentage points to 20.5 per cent in 2021, better than the bank had expected. In the second half of the year, Sinotruk also ranked first in industry sales for five months in a row. As the global economy recovers, overseas sales should play a role. Sinotruk accounts for 50 per cent of China's heavy truck exports, which the bank expects to account for 20 per cent of China's heavy truck sales in 2021.

Sinotruk has improved in a number of segments, including tractors, trucks and mixers. The Central Economic work Conference proposed to ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure in 2021, and stressed the need to speed up the progress of expenditure and appropriately advance infrastructure investment. The bank expects the government to increase support for infrastructure investment in 2022. The industry is expected to remain challenging in 2022; sales are likely to fall back to about 1.2 million vehicles. Nevertheless, the bank believes that Sinotruk's market share is expected to keep rising with its strong product strategy.

According to Haitong, the total revenue of Yihai International (01579) in 2021-23 is expected to be 76.48 / 9.293 billion yuan, which is + 15.7% of the same period last year. 21.5% of the same period last year. The net profit of returning home is 8.35 and 10.44 / 1.304 billion yuan, compared with-5.6% of the same period last year. According to the average valuation of the comparable company, it will be given 35-45 times Ppica E in 2022, corresponding to a reasonable value range of HK $42.78-55 per share.

The dependence of related parties continues to reduce, and the release of production capacity ensures long-term development. The company's related party revenue share fell from 55.7% in 16 years to 26.6% in 20 years, and its dependence on Haidilao International Holding continued to decrease. The company's third-party gross profit margin is higher than that of the related party (44.5% vs 26.1% in 20 years). The bank believes that the increase in the proportion of third-party income is expected to enhance the company's profitability. In November 2001, Haidilao International Holding announced that it would close 300 stores with poor performance this year. The bank believes that the company's third-party business is developing steadily (15-20 years CAGR59.4%), and its dependence on Yihai has been weakened. In the future, with the promotion and influence of its own brand, the company has a strong driving force for endogenous growth. In addition, the company continues to promote capacity construction, 21H2 Luohe base, Zhaoqing Yihai workshop is expected to put into production (production capacity of about 93000 tons), the total capacity is expected to increase to more than 200000 tons in 21 years, 22 years is expected to add 130000 tons of capacity, the bank believes that capacity release will effectively ease the peak season capacity pressure, support future income growth space.

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