Stock price review: Chuanhua Zhaopin rose 87% in 2021, outperformed the CSI 300 index by 92%, rose 28% in 2020-21, and outperformed the CSI 300 index by 7%.
Outlook 2022: be optimistic about the transformation of the company's highway port and consolidate the offline business chassis, and the network freight platform brings the possibility of faster-than-expected growth of online business.
Core point 1: the layout of offline highway port has the advantage of first-mover, from incubation to gradual maturity, entering the performance release period. 1) the company is the pioneer of the offline "highway port" model, and has the largest infrastructure network of urban logistics centers in highway ports in the country. In the first half of 21, there are 65 operational highway ports with an operating area of 4.575 million square meters. 2) the company's highway and port business has changed from incubation to maturity, shifted from property management to logistics operation, and began to release performance flexibility: the company continues to improve its operating capacity through highway and port reconstruction and optimization of the structure of customers in the port. Highway port gross profit increased from 50 million yuan in 16 years to 660 million yuan in 20 years, gross profit margin increased from 12.7% to 62.4% in 2020, profitability improved significantly.
Core focus 2: online platform, the new exploration of "Internet + Logistics" is expected to bring faster-than-expected growth. The main results are as follows: 1) the development prospect of network freight platform is broad. With an online GTV of 338.9 billion yuan in 2020, the penetration rate in the vehicle transportation industry is 9%. It is expected to continue to expand to 680.4 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 15% from 2020. 2) since the company launched the online freight business in 19 years, the proportion of revenue has rapidly increased from 3% in 2019 to 45% of 21H1. In the first half of 2001, online freight revenue was 7.134 billion yuan, an increase of 439% over the same period last year. In the past 21 years, we have launched a digital service platform with easy transportation and large tickets, constantly expanding the scope of our business coverage. 3) We expect the online freight platform business GMV to be close to 20 billion in 2021, and if the business is carried out smoothly, it is expected to reach nearly 30 billion in 2022.
Core focus 3: online and offline linkage, give full play to coordination, and better serve China Intelligent Manufacturing. 1) the company optimizes the product structure with a view to better reducing costs and increasing efficiency for logistics enterprises and manufacturing enterprises. The company has launched three digital products, namely, Land Express, Rong Yi Yun and large ticket digital platform, with a view to covering the whole vehicle and trillion level market through the online platform. 2) online and offline linkage to play a synergistic effect. The online platform enables offline highway ports, through enabling customers inside and outside the port to achieve online, visual and digital transactions, gradually form a national network, strengthen landing distribution capacity through the cooperation of local urban distribution enterprises, and open up the transportation chain. improve operational efficiency. Offline resources anti-feeding online platform, with the maturity of the highway port business of each important node, the continuous abundance of goods can counter-feed the online platform and expand its application market and influence. 3) the company continues to focus on the four major industries of deep ploughing and fast consumption, chemical industry, car rear and technology, and realizes the end-to-end supply chain logistics solution capability by integrating offline warehousing resources and online transport capacity resources.
Investment advice: 1) profit forecast: we maintain the profit forecast, that is, the estimated return net profit in 2021-23 is 18.6,20.9 and 2.48 billion yuan respectively, the corresponding EPS is 0.61,0.68,0.81 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 14,13 and 11 times respectively. 2) Investment suggestion: maintain the previously reported segment valuation, that is, the network freight platform, traditional logistics business and chemical business give different PE valuations according to their respective attributes, corresponding to an one-year target market value of 32.9 billion yuan, the target price is 10.71 yuan, is expected to have 23% room for growth compared to the current price, and maintain the "recommended" rating. Note: according to the relevant announcements of the company's previous performance commitments and according to our latest earnings forecasts, we expect that after the disclosure of the 2021 annual report, Chuanhua Group may still need to buy back the corresponding number of shares written off in 2022 as compensation for performance commitments. In this way, the company's PE will be less than 13 times in 2022, which is at a low level in the logistics industry and has a margin of safety.
Risk tips: the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the economy fell sharply, and the RMB depreciated sharply.