On January 6, domestic futures closed with obvious differentiation. The black series was among the top gainers, with glass rising 4.7% in the afternoon, iron ore up more than 4%, soda ash up more than 3%, red dates, coke, manganese silicon and hot rolls up more than 2%. Rapeseed oil, 20 gum, rapeseed meal, bean 2, Shanghai nickel, stainless steel, Shanghai silver and urea fell by more than 2%.
Indonesian coal companies may face financial losses and production cuts due to the ban. They have applied to the government for permission to export metallurgical coal.
布米, Indonesia's largest coal miner, said in a document that while it was still analyzing the financial impact of the export ban, it could lead to demurrage and fines due to delivery delays. 布米 expressed the hope that the government will immediately lift export restrictions on companies that fulfill their domestic market obligations (DMO). A subsidiary of Adaro Energy, Indonesia's second-largest coal miner, said in a statement that it had asked the government for permission to export metallurgical coal. Metallurgical coal is used for steelmaking, not for power generation. Indika, the coal company, said it would need to adjust its production levels if the ban continued. Coal exports contribute about $3 billion a month to Indonesia's international trade and pushed the country's exports to an all-time high last year.
Comments on the data of Mysteel weekly rebar
Qiu Yuecheng, director of black research at Everbright Futures, said that on January 6, my steel released thread week production and inventory data, thread week production rebounded for the second consecutive week, the total inventory increased slightly, the increase was less than expected.
On the supply side, with the completion of the production reduction task of most steel mills in 2021, the number of steel mills resuming production has increased after entering 2022, and the output has rebounded for the second week in a row, but in the case of losses in short-process steel mills, the overall recovery output is not large.
On the demand side, demand in the south is still basically normal, while demand in the north has fallen significantly seasonally, and speculative demand has picked up somewhat. This week, thread production fell 19.73% from the same period last year, and table requirements dropped 14.39% year-on-year. For seven consecutive weeks, the year-on-year decline in output was greater than that of table demand, and the low output has a strong supporting effect on prices.
With the anchoring of the winter storage price of the steel mills in various regions, the plate price moves up at the cost end and under the support of the winter storage price, before the Spring Festival, it may be in the state of bottom below and top above, and the probability of the main rebar contract fluctuates in the range of 4250-4600 yuan.
Guotai Junan Futures comments on the weakening of Soybean Brown Oil Futures spread
Fu Bo, senior researcher of agricultural products in Guotai Junan Futures, said that recently, soybean palm oil futures (YP) price spreads have fallen sharply again, and we believe that this wave of price difference is mainly caused by the strength difference between palm oil and soybean oil fundamental expectations. Palm oil is strong and soybean oil is weak.
Due to severe flooding in the main producing areas of the Malay Peninsula (which accounts for 30% of production), and the slow progress in the introduction of Malay labor from Indonesia, Bangladesh and India, the market is worried that the recovery of Malay palm oil production in January 2022 is not as expected, pushing up the price of palm oil in the producing area.
While soybean oil is in a weak situation of supply and demand, soybean crushing capacity is low but does not cause a decline in soybean oil inventory, so soybean oil itself is lack of drive. In addition, the delayed realization of soybean oil dumping and storage expectations is also a kind of psychological suppression on the price of soybean oil.
On the whole, we believe that the trend of soybean palm oil price gap is still driven by palm oil, and only when the fundamentals of palm oil weaken will the soybean palm price spread be expected to widen again.