On January 4, the domestic futures market closed up more or less, with the coal sector leading the way. Thermal coal rose 6.38%, coking coal and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rose more than 5%, coke rose nearly 5%, methanol rose more than 3%, rapeseed meal and palm oil rose more than 2%. In terms of decline, red jujube closed down the limit by more than 10%, while Apple Inc, manganese silicon and live pigs fell more than 2%.

　　National Development and Reform Commission: it is expected that pig prices and pig feed ratio are more likely to decline.

As of December 29, 2021, the national pig feed price ratio was 5.19, a month-on-month decline of 0.57%. According to the current price and cost, the profit of pig breeding head will be 161.66 yuan in the future. Domestic pig prices showed a fluctuating downward trend this week. The enthusiasm of the breeding end has been improved, the supply of pigs in the market is slightly abundant, although some butcher enterprises in the north have increased the volume and stock preparation action, but the boost to the market is limited, pig prices still slow down mainly during the week. New Year's Day after the consumption may fall, it is expected that pig prices, pig feed ratio is more likely to decline.

　　Policy orientation is still the main factor affecting the trend of coal prices before the Spring Festival.

At present, the signing volume and price of the Association have not been finally determined, the overall market is confused, the price of the Association may continue to decline, and the market price of coal is not optimistic. Although the temperature in East and Central China has dropped significantly and the load of private electricity has increased, in the case of high terminal inventory, the follow-up cold wave has limited effect on the market, and policy guidance is still the main factor affecting the trend of coal prices before the Spring Festival. coal prices are also expected to move down inertia. With the end of the supply mission, port and power plant inventories continue to fall slightly, and the decline in coal prices will narrow in January. (Ordos Coal Network)

　　Yangtze River Futures Review Thermal Coal soars

Changjiang Futures said Indonesia is the world's largest exporter of thermal coal and will push up global coal prices in the coming weeks as Indonesia's export ban is in place. In terms of China's domestic thermal coal supply, the policy of increasing production and ensuring supply in January will continue, and the new production capacity has not yet been fully released. The government requires the downstream terminals to continue to increase inventory and strengthen resource reserves. As of the latest data, the national thermal coal inventory reached 166 million tons, an increase of 34.85 million tons over the same period last year. Even if Indonesia's coal ban takes effect in January, its impact on domestic thermal coal supply is still generally manageable, given the strength of the domestic supply policy.

　　Morgan Stanley: even if Indonesia stops coal exports in the short term, China can still get a buffer.

Indonesia is China's largest source of coal imports. From January to November last year, China imported 177 million tons of thermal coal from Indonesia, an increase of 54.4 per cent over the same period last year, accounting for 74.4 per cent of the total imported thermal coal. Morgan Stanley said that while Indonesia's ban will significantly reduce China's coal supply, China can also gain a buffer in the short term even if Indonesia stops coal exports as record-breaking coal production and warm weather help fill inventories of Chinese power plants.

　　Guotai Junan Futures comments on Red Jujube falling by the limit

Zhou Xiaoqiu, chief researcher of Guotai Junan futures agricultural products, believes that the red jujube contract led the decline in recent months, and the main contract fell to the limit in intraday trading. At this stage, the demand for red dates is in the peak season but has declined significantly compared with the same period last year, the spot price has turned down, the decline in futures prices has intensified, and it has fallen below the cost of red jujube warehouse receipts in the new season, and the consumption outlook is not optimistic, the basis of red jujube continues to strengthen. In terms of warehouse receipts, as of last Friday, the number of warehouse receipts was 12476, the forecast of valid warehouse receipts was 5807, and the daily position of CJ2201 was only 1403 hands. The monthly position in delivery was significantly lower than the number of warehouse receipts, the market delivery capacity was lower than expected, and the decline in jujube futures prices continued after entering the delivery month. It is expected that the spot price of red jujube will be stable in the next two weeks, and there is a greater probability that the futures price will move closer to the spot price; if there is still no sign of improvement in future consumption, futures prices will remain weak.