1. In the macro market, the mood has warmed up, the festive consumption data of the international market has performed well, and the market is optimistic about the demand for commodities. Against the backdrop of the easing but unresolved energy crisis in Europe and the steady decline in crude oil prices, the concept of inflation continues to support commodities, especially agricultural products.

2. Global oil, oil meal and oil inventories are expected to improve but not reverse, South American weather theme cooling, lack of market guidance, wait until January supply and demand report guidance. Over the years, the January report is crucial, with bean production, South American production estimates and Chinese demand being the top three concerns. We believe that Brazilian and Argentine soybean production is expected to be reduced by 4 million tons, China's soybean imports are expected to be reduced by 10-2 million tons, and US soybean exports are reduced, resulting in a tightening of global soybean supply and demand but an improvement in US soybean supply and demand. and the possibility of a significant reduction in South American production is further reduced. Considering that Brazilian soybeans are beginning to be harvested, there is not much time left for American beans to export. Meidou may weaken again after the supply and demand report in January.

3. The supply and demand of domestic soybean meal market is weak, the feed demand is declining, the terminal purchases carefully, the rolling replenishment of the stock, the soybean supply pressure of the oil plant moves backward, and the futures pressure is greater than the spot. In addition, the cost side will also put pressure on the market. It is expected that in January 2022, the soybean meal May futures contract will fluctuate lower, and the price will re-adjust 3000 yuan / ton first-line support.

4. The domestic and foreign oil market is in a tight pattern, the contradiction between supply and demand in the spot market is limited to maintain marginal deterioration and marginal improvement, and the market is lack of guiding theme. Specifically, the supply side shows the production price + oil factory price + limited pick-up, the demand is not prosperous in the peak season, and the Spring Festival stock comes to an end in the first half of January. Taking into account the local Spring Festival this year + weak demand at the catering end + the outbreak of the epidemic, oil consumption during the Spring Festival and after the New year may be more light. Production in the largest palm oil producing area currently preventing oil from falling, taking into account the introduction of Malay labour and the seasonality of production, a significant improvement in production may need to be after May 2022, but January and February supply and demand data may be able to see marginal improvement. On one side, the oil is sold short every high, the theme is concentrated in the middle of the bean brown, and the volatility is expected to go higher.