Looking back to 2021, under the background of repeated epidemic situation and heating up of supply chain crisisThe United States and other developed countries continue to release huge amounts of liquidity, while China's policy and economy have stepped out of the "independent market".

Let's look at the United States first.In 2021, the United States continued last year's "zero interest rate" policy in monetary policy and maintained the scale of bond purchases; in fiscal policy, it maintained a high level of fiscal expenditure throughout the year, and the balance of TGA accounts declined rapidly. The two-pronged approach of monetary and fiscal policy has pushed US inflation to a 40-year high. A similar situation is happening in Europe, where the euro zone is committed to "releasing water" to protect the economy this year.

Even though inflationary pressures forced a marginal slowdown in global easing at the end of the year, the withdrawal of monetary policy was gradual, the discharge continued and interest rates remained generally low globally.

On the other hand, with the support of China's excellent epidemic management and control achievements, China's policy and economy have remained relatively independent.Since Q3 in 2020, the central bank's monetary policy implementation report has once again mentioned "managing the general monetary floodgate". Throughout this year, China's liquidity release has been relatively cautious and did not release the liquidity signal until the end of the year. In addition, after it was proposed in April that the "pressure to stabilize growth" was small, China was more active in "deleveraging", releasing the risks of local debt and the real estate industry.

Since this yearThe epidemic has a long tail, loose second half, and dislocation of supply and demand rhythm.Many factors have led to differences in economic recovery in various countries, and these differences are clearly reflected in different trends of asset prices, such as rights and interests, commodities, rare earths, bonds and foreign exchange.

In the past, with the advent of the new year, Wall Street has carefully selected five types of not-to-be-missed annual asset reviews for you. I wish investors friends money and profits in the new year.

Ride the Wind and waves Award-Lithium, Silicon: take advantage of the policy east wind, fight the huge waves of the times!

(1) Lithium ore(the lithium mining index rose 206.90% this year)

With the development of science and technology, the application of lithium ore in emerging strategic industries (electric vehicles), high-end manufacturing fields (aircraft, rockets, ships, etc.) and nuclear power (fission of uranium reactors) has come to the fore and has been listed as one of the strategic mineral resources by many countries in the world. In fact, as early as 2019, Gudinav, the father of lithium batteries, warned after winning the Nobel Prize in chemistry:

"Lithium resources are as important as strategic resources such as oil. Once there is a bottleneck in the exploitation of lithium resources, it may become the fuse of war as well as oil."

Lithium, which has gone through two cycles since the fourth quarter of 20 years, has begun a third upward cycle. In the current cycleDemand-side viewThe global policy has promoted the rapid rise of downstream industries such as electric vehicles, and the demand for lithium ore has been significantly boosted.Supply side viewShen Liangming, a non-ferrous analyst at CITIC Futures, believes thatIn this cycle, a substantial shortage of lithium concentrates has led to a rapid rise in lithium prices:

After two years of continuous plunge (2018-2020Q3), the price of lithium carbonate is already lower than the cost price in some areas. Among Australia's major mine operators, only Greenbushes and Mt Marion are operating relatively normally, Mt Cattlin and Pilbara may have reduced production, Altura is facing bankruptcy crisis, and Bald Hill and Wodgina have stopped production. In addition, affected by the epidemic, capacity expansion plans are limited, exacerbating supply-side shortages.

The sharp increase in demand and insufficient supply have combined to steadily support the sharp rise in lithium prices this year.

(2) Silicon material(Silicon prices rose 172.37% this year, up more than 220% at one point)

Benefit from the ESG investment boom, by the "double carbon action" reshape the supply and demand pattern, stand on the tuyere of the times, but also silicon.

Since the beginning of this year, with the promotion of policies such as carbon neutralization and county-wide distributed photovoltaic, there is a strong demand downstream. Coupled with the impact of supply-side power constraints and other factors, the price of silicon has also risen by a high margin this year. According to the data, the price of silicon rose from 84000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 269000 yuan / ton, an increase of 220%.

In the context of skyrocketing silicon materials, upstream enterprises are expanding production crazily. Since November, the prices of "crazy" photovoltaic raw materials such as polysilicon have gradually pressed the "pause button". In early December, silicon prices fell for four consecutive weeks after five weeks of stability.

Natural gas, crude oil, coal: you can't buy old energy if you want to.

In the second half of the year, one of the core issues concerned by the market is the "energy crisis". Topics such as "lack of gas abroad and lack of carbon at home" were once hotly discussed in the market.At a time when countries are trying to shift from fossil fuels to clean energy, but the growth rate of the new economy is not enough to fill the gap, fossil energy abandoned by the new era has waged a "struggle of trapped animals".

In the international market:The shortage of natural gas has led to the tension between supply and demand of crude oil, and under the substitution effect, the price of coal has also started a wave of rise. In addition, the overseas energy shortage led to a rise in electricity prices, some commodities, especially the supply side of non-ferrous metals showed a greater impact, prices also once rose sharply.

In the domestic market:Due to the slow release of domestic production capacity and blocked imports, carbon represented by thermal coal and coking coal continues to be in short supply, and prices have reached record highs. Subsequently, under the influence of the relative shortage of energy and electricity, commodities such as lithium, oil, copper, aluminum, thread, iron ore, tin and nickel have started a "soaring model" at different stages, and pushed related stock prices higher. As a result, many investors joked that there was a "periodic table" in the market this year.

(1) crude oil(WTI crude oil rose 57.82% this year)

In 2021, due to production restrictions in oil-producing countries, demand recovered after the epidemic was alleviated, there was a significant gap between supply and demand of crude oil, inventories were rapidly eliminated, and prices went up.

After the relief of the epidemic, the global demand for crude oil recovered, and there was a significant gap between supply and demand for crude oil.

From the supply sideFirst of all, the OPEC+ countries, the main force in this round of production, have a strong willingness to raise prices, and the pace of increasing production is cautious, which has always maintained the gap in the oil market. Secondly, under the combined action of Wall Street pressure, previous difficult survival experience, ESG investment boom and other factors, American shale oil manufacturers have little willingness to expand production. Therefore, the supply of crude oil in the international market has not gone up, and the supply gap has always been maintained.From the demand sideThe rapid rise in natural gas prices has seen a surge in the demand for alternatives in the crude oil market.

The combination of the two has supported the upward trend of crude oil prices so far this year. In October, WTI crude oil and cloth oil both broke the 80 mark.

By the end of November, the sudden attack of the Omicron mutant virus caused intense panic in the market, leading to a sharp drop in demand-side expectations. At the same time, stimulated by factors such as the release of US strategic reserves and signs of accelerated recovery in US crude oil production, supply-side expectations have increased sharply, leading to a sharp fall in crude oil prices. In early December, WTI crude oil and cloth oil fell below $70 a barrel, flattening the previous March gains and stepping out of a "roller coaster market".

(2) Natural gas(NYMEX natural gas rose 38.68% this year, up more than 120% at one point.)

In 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic, Europe's demand for energy fell much faster than supply and gas prices fell. With the economic recovery this year, the demand for energy has rebounded rapidly. However, the recovery speed of the supply side is far less than that of the demand side. At the same time, before the arrival of the cold winter, underestimated the market recovery demand for natural gas channels and failed to replenish almost depleted inventory in time.

In addition, in recent years, the European Union has gradually withdrawn from the long-term natural gas contract signed with Russia and changed to a spot pricing system, resulting in increased fluctuations in natural gas prices. In addition, Russia, the number one supplier, did not lend a helping hand in time because of the Beixi No.2 dispute. The superposition of many factors led to the outbreak of the energy crisis in Europe and the soaring price of natural gas.

At the end of the year, the flow of LNG from the United States alleviated the urgent need of gas shortage in Europe, the price of natural gas was nearly halved, and the "roller coaster market" was staged again.

(3) Coal(DCE coking coal rose 36.05% this year, up more than 120% at one point.)

Foreign marketWall Street mentioned that as the soaring prices of natural gas and crude oil prompted US power plants to switch to coal for power generation, the surge in demand led to a sustained surge in US coal prices, which are already less elastic in supply. coal prices in central Appalachia hit their highest level since 2009.

Domestic marketPan Wei, an analyst at Galaxy Securities, made the following review of this year's coal industry:

Since the beginning of the year, the coal sector has experienced three stages of investment logic evolution:

• From January to October 2021, abundant global liquidity, rising inflation, collective strength of commodities, overproduction, stricter environmental safety supervision, and the impact of Sino-Australian relations all aggravated the contraction of coal supply, and the sharp rise in coal prices pushed the coal sector higher.

• From mid-October to mid-November, the policy mix strongly increased production and guaranteed supply, and coal prices fell sharply, driving the index down sharply.

• Since mid-November, plate investment sentiment has bottomed out and rebounded, and the NDRC has introduced the latest long Association coal price pricing mechanism to promote a substantial improvement in plate investment sentiment.

Go straight up the award-- Technology stocks: the ultimate track, "hard technology" to achieve high growth!

On the whole, the domestic and foreign equity markets have walked out of a more differentiated market trend this year. Despite large fluctuations during the year, major indices in most countries and regions achieved positive returns by the end of the year, with developed markets generally outperforming emerging markets.

Among themThe track with the highest popularity and the most eye-catching performance in the world is "hard technology".Take the stock market prices of China and the United States as an example:

（1）Domestic market(the gem refers to an increase of 12.02% in revenue and over 30% in new energy ETF.)

From the point of view of the trend, the market collapsed at the beginning of the year, and the market trend continued to differentiate, coming out of the extreme structural market. In a rough summary, Gaojing demeanor plate changed from "drinking and taking medicine" and "drinking and driving" last year.Turn to this year's "double carbon" main line and new energy vehicle industry chain.

Driven by the "carbon neutralization" policy and industrial development, the "hard technology" sector has achieved high growth this year, and new energy vehicles, scenery storage and other tracks have ushered in explosive growth. In contrast, the performance of sectors related to real estate, medicine and large consumption was not satisfactory during the year.

In terms of specific performance, as of press time, the new energy ETF of Chongcang new energy vehicles and photovoltaic sectors has increased by more than 30% this year, far exceeding the performance of major stock indexes in the same period.

(2) US stock market(Nasdaq rose 27.47% this year)

The excellent market of US stocks this year has been pulled out by the "hot-blooded short" of retail investors. Subsequently, although the U. S. stock market rose generally, but the trend was divided. Among them, the strong upward technology stocks performed the most, becoming the "prettiest" in the 2021 US stock market.

According to research statistics by David Kostin, chief US equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Group, as of December 11, the earnings of the five giants Microsoft Corp, Alphabet Inc-CL C, Apple Inc, NVIDIA Corp and Tesla, Inc. alone accounted for more than 1/3 of the S & P 500's earnings this year (about 26%).Since the end of April, the five giants have accounted for 51% of the returns of the s & p 500.

Silent Wealth Award-tin: unknown, unilateral uplink!

Commodity markets have been highly volatile over the past year. Under the disturbance of various factors, such as the release of water, repeated epidemics, carbon neutralization, double control of energy consumption, policy changes and other factors, commodity prices have repeatedly stepped out of the "roller coaster" market.

If you take a closer look at the performance of all kinds of commodities this year, tin, which has little public attention, ranks first among non-ferrous sectors and even commodities with an annual increase of 92.25%. At the same time, the unilateral rise in the first to fourth quarters has made tin one of the commodities with the highest risk-to-return ratio this year.

FundamentalsThe intensification of the epidemic in the main supply areas led to the suspension of production in some mines, and the recovery of supply was not as expected to stimulate higher tin prices.

Shen Liangming, a non-ferrous analyst at Citic Futures, believes that tight supply almost dominates the trend of tin prices in 2021. Specifically:

• In the first quarter, the epidemic situation in WA intensified, the Yinman tin mine stopped production unexpectedly, Huaxi stopped production, and Lunxi rose 24.1% in the first quarter.

• In the second quarter, Malaysia Tin smelting Group (MSC) reduced production due to the blockade of the epidemic, domestic environmental protection inspectors, Yunnan began to cut power, and Lunxi rose 22.4% in the second quarter.

• Yinman tin mine resumed production in August and Yunnan tin mine resumed production in the third quarter, but in September, power restrictions in Guangxi, Yunnan and other places tightened, tin ingot production decreased, and Lunxi rose 6.8% in the third quarter.

• At the beginning of the fourth quarter, domestic power cuts slowed down, smelter capacity gradually recovered, MSC resumed production, and the supply side is expected to improve. Affected by the European energy crisis, the world's second largest zinc smelter cut production by 50 per cent and triggered speculation on the supply side of non-ferrous varieties, which was later loosened by LME restrictions and a sharp drop in domestic coal prices.

One prize in a hundred-- Chinese treasury bonds: it is so excellent.

This year, US bonds had their second worst performance in more than four decades, while Chinese bonds were the second strongest in emerging markets.

Specifically, South African bonds, which have been at the forefront of the global bond market so far this year, continued to take the lead with a total return of 8.6%, according to Bloomberg statistics.The overall return on Chinese bonds is 5.6%, an eye-catching performanceReturns of 5.2%, 2.7% and 1% in Indonesia, India and Croatia are not far behind.

Instead, Treasury yields posted their biggest annual rise since 2013, a staggering one.

In the latest research report, according to the main line logic, Guotai Junan Qin Han team reviewed China's bond market in 2021:

In stages: from the beginning of January to the Spring Festival, the bond market reversed its cyclical correction. From the Spring Festival to the end of May, the demand side shrinks and the bond market turns into a slow bull. From early June to late June, the demand side expands and the bond market goes against the cycle. From the beginning of July to the end of September, the supply side expanded and the bond market became a fast bull. From the beginning of October to the middle of October, the bond market went against the cycle and interest rates adjusted back. From late October to the end of November, the contradiction between supply and demand intensified, the bond market was cyclical, and interest rates fell as a whole. Since the beginning of December, the supply-side expansion has been stronger than the demand-side expansion, the bond market has been cyclical, and interest rates have fluctuated downwards.

Attached: a list of the performance of major global assets in 2021